The NFC South is the worst division in the conference and aside from one team, that’s not expected to change. In 2022, the division winner won just eight games while every other team won seven. While it was close and it came down to the wire, that doesn’t mean it was good. Coming into this season, every team has a new quarterback under center, making it something to keep an eye on in terms of development and how they do. With that being said, the 2023 editions of NFL over/under predictions get wrapped with the NFC South.
*Odds via FanDuel
NFL Over/Under Predictions: NFC South Edition
Saints (O/U 9.5)
Looking at their schedule heading into the season, taking the over seems like an easy choice. The New Orleans Saints hold the easiest strength of schedule in the league, facing just four teams that finished over .500 in 2022 and a slew of rookie or unproven quarterbacks. It also helps that they play in a weak division. Not only is all of that true but the Saints got better solely based on quarterback play. They landed Derek Carr after trying to find the right man under center post-Drew Brees. While Carr isn’t put up there near the top, he’s thrown for over 4,000 yards in four of the last five seasons. He’s helped by a defense that has been the strong point of the team for the last few years. The Saints still have holes on the team but with this schedule, they should hit the over easily.
Prediction: Over (2023 win total: 11 wins)
Falcons (O/U 8.5)
The Atlanta Falcons have finished with seven wins in four of the last five seasons, including the last two. While they have talented pass catchers on offense like Kyle Pitts and Drake London with potential Offensive Rookie of the Year Bijan Robinson at running back, the biggest question or unknown is Desmond Ridder at quarterback. While he could turn out to be fine, the confidence in him leading this team where they need to be isn’t high. The Falcons did upgrade the defense up front and got some pieces in the secondary, adding some much-needed depth but still isn’t enough to get excited about. Even with one of the easiest schedules in the league, the quarterback situation is too unknown to hit the over.
Prediction: Under (7 wins)
Panthers (O/U 7.5)
While there could be growing pains for their 2023 first-overall draft pick, the Carolina Panthers have done a decent job in surrounding Bryce Young with solid pieces for his rookie season. They signed wide receivers Adam Thielen and DJ Chark along with 1,000-yard running back Miles Sanders. There’s already some good talent on defense and if they can get improved performances from a couple of players, it could be one that is in the top half of the league. Frank Reich also takes over head coaching duties, which could help the performance of the team overall. The Panthers are on the rise and have things going in the right direction. While they might not make the playoffs this season, they are poised to make noise in the near future.
Prediction: Over (8 wins)
Buccaneers (O/U 6.5)
With Tom Brady retired (again), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to regress even more from their eight wins a season ago. They brought in Baker Mayfield to lead this team. While he has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, they both have injury history and Mayfield hasn’t exactly been the most trustworthy. You can say the same for the defense too. While they have some talent, that side of the ball has been on the decline from what it was and the injuries have not helped. The depth has thinned out and their performance from the run defense to cornerback position wasn’t good. Brady is no longer there to mask some deficiencies and even then they still only won eight games in 2022.
Prediction: Under (5 wins)
Other Division Over/Under Predictions:
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