We will go from focusing on one of the best divisions in football, the AFC North, to focusing on one of the worst, the AFC South. Last season, this division was only one of two to not have a single team win double-digit games. It had two teams with four wins or less, including the number two overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. While the AFC South might not be the most exciting this season, it’ll be interesting to see the progression (or lack thereof) of each team in the division.
*Odds via FanDuel
NFL Over/Under Predictions: AFC South Edition
Jaguars (O/U 9.5)
After finishing last in the AFC South from 2018-2021, the Jacksonville Jaguars exceeded expectations in 2022 and went 9-8 to win the division along with a playoff win. With the rise of Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley in the fold at wide receiver, the Jaguars are looking to take another step and in a weak division, having the ability to surpass their win total from last season. While that’s a possibility, it’s easy to be skeptical of them hitting double-digit wins given their past and many not buying the hype for one good season. On top of that, they play a first-place schedule. Nevertheless, Jacksonville can very well hit 10 wins if they play like they did down the stretch last season consistently.
Prediction: Over (2023 win total: 10)
Titans (O/U 7.5)
The Tennessee Titans aren’t what they were from 2019-21 but by playing in the AFC South and having other favorable matchups, there’s a path that can result in hitting the over. Last year was rough all around, from having one of the worst offenses in the league to horrible injury luck on defense. They are hoping both can change. Even with an aging Derrick Henry, he’s still a feared back and one of the best in the game. We don’t know how much Ryan Tannehill has left in the tank but the Titans got him a shiny new weapon with DeAndre Hopkins, hoping that can put some life back into him. With what they hope can be an improved offense and a healthy secondary, hitting the over might not be a stretch.
Prediction: Over (8 wins)
Colts (O/U 6.5)
The line at 6.5 wins for the Indianapolis Colts seems too high, even before the Jonathan Taylor drama. They will be starting their fourth overall pick from this year’s draft Anthony Richardson. Not only does that alone make you weary, but Colts quarterbacks were sacked 60 times last season and they haven’t done much to improve. Now add the growing pains of a rookie QB and mix that in with the fact that Jonathan Taylor will be out the first four games along with a Colts’ secondary that is young and got torched against the pass last season, you could be looking at another long year in Indianapolis.
Prediction: Under (4 wins)
Texans (O/U 6.5)
With the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans selected quarterback C.J. Stroud. They needed a man under center for the future and they got their guy but they also needed a pass rusher and they did that by moving up all the way to number three to select the best one in the draft, Will Anderson Jr. With filling holes at two key positions, the Texans are ready to take a step forward in their rebuild. With that all said, that doesn’t mean they will be significantly better. They will be a fun team to watch grow but they still only won three games last season and have holes throughout the roster and it’s hard to see them winning four more games than last season.
Prediction: Under (5 wins)