Jacksonville is well set up to secure their first win of the 2024 season in the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts matchup, thanks to great matchups on both sides of the ball. With the season completely unraveling after a disastrous loss to the Bills and Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars must beat the Colts to salvage any semblance of success in 2024.
How Jacksonville Can Win the Jaguars vs Colts Matchup
For the Jaguars, there are two key matchups that they need to win to secure their first victory in 2024. The most important one is the Jaguars wide receivers against a struggling Colts secondary. The other matchup for Jacksonville is the Jaguars secondary going against the Colts receivers and whoever is throwing them the ball. Both are huge matchups of equal proportion and whichever side wins theirs will go on to secure the victory in Jacksonville.
Jaguars Receivers vs Colts Secondary
No matchup is more important for the Jaguars than their receivers against the Colts secondary. While the Colts’ secondary isn’t the pass funnel it was in 2023, it’s still struggled in 2024. Indianapolis is allowing the seventh most yards through four weeks through the air. Wide receivers especially get home versus the Colts, and with the Jaguars pass catchers being one of the strengths of the roster, their success is paramount for the Jaguars in week five.
Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. lead the way for Jacksonville, with Gabriel Davis and Parker Washington spelling the two receivers. Thomas has been a massive piece of the Jaguars offense, and he will be a huge part of the offense in week five. Thomas aligns outside most of the time, with Kirk in the slot and Davis also out wide. Evan Engram returning would’ve added a nice wrinkle to the offense, with his ability to slide into the slot or out wide as a tight end can give the Colts tougher looks. But, the most important factor of the Jaguars receivers and the Colts’ secondary is how they will line up.
Indianapolis has Kenny Moore II in the slot normally, but due to an injury will be out for the week five matchup against Kirk. Moore is far and away the Colts’ best defensive back, and his absence will lead to a much larger opportunity for Kirk against the backup slot corner. Thomas and Davis will line up out wide and will be lined up against Jaylon Jones, and a combination of Samuel Womack III and Dallis Flowers. Through four weeks, Jones has allowed 231 yards receiving on 16 receptions, with a PFF grade of 51.5 in coverage, which is the worst among the Colts starters heading into week five. Womack has been much better, only allowing 18 yards and a touchdown on only three targets. He has two pass breakups, which is tied with Jones and Moore for the most on the Colts, despite playing significantly fewer snaps than both corners.
It’s a good matchup for a Jaguars pass-catching group against a struggling Colts secondary, and there is no more important matchup in this game than this one. If the Jaguars receivers can get home against the Colts’ secondary, Jacksonville should secure its first win since November 2023. Moore is out, and the other corners have struggled. Thomas and Kirk have a huge opportunity in week five in what is the most important matchup for the Jaguars.
Jaguars Secondary vs Colts Receivers
Flipping sides of the ball, the Jaguars secondary and the Colts receivers are the next most important matchup on Sunday for Jacksonville. With a Jaguars secondary that’s given up the third most yards through the air, and the second most 20-plus yard plays, there is a lot to be concerned about against a Colts offense that is boom or bust.
That boom-or-bust nature comes from one of the most inconsistent players in the NFL, Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson has seven turnover-worthy plays according to PFF, to go with four big-time throws. Only Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins have more turnover-worthy plays, but Richardson has the highest turnover-worthy play percentage among the starting quarterbacks in the NFL at 7.7%.
Richardson has three touchdowns and six interceptions on the season, along with an NFL-low -10.6 completion percentage over expectation according to Next Gen Stats. His passer rating is only second lowest, ahead of just Bryce Young who was benched after just two weeks. Richardson also targets down the field more than any other quarterback, with an average intended air yards of 12.6 and an average completed air yards of 10.2 according to Next Gen Stats, both leading the NFL.
With Anthony Richardson questionable, Joe Flacco could be taking over at quarterback for the Colts. The veteran quarterback has a knack for managing games and is a huge part of the reason why Michael Pittman and Josh Downs found success against the Steelers. Flacco is a safer version of Richardson, but he is still playing within the boom-or-bust nature of the offense, as his average depth of target is 11.4. While his numbers aren’t as outlier-esc as Richardsons, Flacco is still driving the ball down the field and taking some chances. Flacco has two touchdowns and no interceptions, with 168 yards passing with a 61.5 completion percentage.
The wide receivers in this offense have matched the boom-or-bust nature. Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce have been the best examples of this, both having average targeted air yards over 20 yards downfield according to Next Gen Stats. The next closest receiver is Calvin Ridley at 18.4. Richardson targets receivers downfield, and Pierce and Mitchell are two of the biggest boom-or-bust receivers in the NFL. Pittman and Downs are the two receivers who play closer to the line of scrimmage and have found recent success with both Richardson and Flacco. A well-balanced wide receiver room will make things challenging for Jacksonville’s secondary.
At outside cornerback, Ronald Darby has allowed 297 yards and a touchdown on 24 targets and 19 receptions. Elsewhere, Jarrian Jones and Montaric Brown have both allowed 151 yards, with Jones on 11 receptions and Brown on 17. But the largest area of concern for the secondary is the yards allowed after the catch. According to PFF, Darby has allowed 148 yards after the catch, and Jones has allowed 125 yards after the catch. That’s the most, and second-most yards allowed after the catch among all defensive backs in the NFL.
Between the Jaguars’ defense allowing explosive plays in the passing game, to the Colts’ offense being boom or bust, there are a lot of red flags to be wary of for Jacksonville. If the Colts offense hits, the Jaguars could be giving up massive chunk plays all over the field. But Richardson and Flacco have been inconsistent, and with a Jaguars secondary matching that inconsistency, there is a high chance for explosive plays all game long through the air.
Final Overview and Prediction
It’s a boom-or-bust offense against a boom-or-bust defense in the passing games for both teams. What should be an explosive matchup could turn ugly for one team if the offense isn’t able to click. Both defenses are capable of getting stops but are equally capable of allowing easy touchdown drives. These two offensive and defensive schemes match up well and could form an entertaining matchup for neutral fans. Unfortunately, the Jaguars and Colts fans will most likely always be on the edge of their seats thanks to the uncertain and explosive nature of these offenses and defenses.
If there was one side of the ball to benefit more from this matchup, it would be the Colts. So far, the Jaguars defense hasn’t gotten a single turnover. Every other team in the NFL has one defensively, and the Jaguars have not only been underwhelming in getting sacks but have yet to get either a forced fumble or interception on defense. There isn’t a better chance for the Jaguars’ defense to get their first turnover, than going up against a turnover-prone quarterback in Richardson.
These two matchups, the Colts’ secondary against the Jaguars receivers and vice versa, will decide the winner of the Jaguars vs Colts week five matchup. There are three scenarios; Both offenses win their matchups and it’s a massive shootout that either team could win, both defenses win their matchups and it’s one of the ugliest games of the year, or only one offense wins while the other loses. If only one offense finds success, that team will win. And with Jacksonville being slightly more consistent, their odds of finding offensive success are higher.
Coming off a week four heartbreak, and a disastrous start to 2024, the Jaguars desperately need a win. The groundwork for fixing the Jaguars offense has been laid out, but there is still room to improve. With a close loss to the Browns and a collapse against the Dolphins in very winnable games, the Jaguars have been struggling despite a strong roster. Against the Colts, the Jaguars have a chance to get on the board with a win and start salvaging their 2024 season.
Main Image:
