“We will never get another Patrick Mahomes super bowl win? Are you crazy?”
Perhaps I am. But I’ve thought some things out, and that statement isn’t so crazy as it sounds. There are some really good reasons why there will never be another Mahomes super bowl: the salary cap, Andy Reid’s age, and growing competition in the AFC. The road to another Mahomes super bowl is only growing harder, and much of that is due to Mahomes’ success. He has a good chance to win another one, but that chance is shrinking by the day.
The Salary Cap Spells Doom for Another Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl
When the super bowl is done and over, I like to sit back, relax, and think things over. Too many “hot takes” come out the day after Super Bowl LV, or even while the confetti is still being thrown in the trash. It’s important to take some time so you can mull things over. I did this while I looked at the Kansas City Chiefs after the super bowl. I took my time and thought things out. I know the super bowl hangover isn’t a myth, it is almost a guaranteed curse.
I didn’t write this article for “clicks”. This is something I thought out, and I think will be proved true in the coming future. I may be proved wrong. And hopefully, I will be. I genuinely love watching Mahomes play the game of football. However, I don’t think I will. I want to explain my beliefs about Mahomes super bowl chances out a little more…I am not saying Mahomes will never make another super bowl, I am saying he will never WIN one again. Why? let’s take a look at the Seattle Seahawks.
The Super Bowl Hangover is Real
The Seattle Seahawks made two straight appearances in the super bowl, as did the 2017-2019 New England Patriots. The Seahawks lost the second super bowl and have never appeared in an NFC Championship game since that point. The last team to win two super bowls twice in a row was the New England Patriots in 2003-2004. During the 2017-2019 seasons, the Patriots won, lost, and won the super bowl in that order.
Since Super Bowl XLIX, which was when the Seahawks lost to the Patriots, the Seahawks playoff record is 3-5. They have lost three times in the divisional round, and twice in the wild card, most recently this year to the Los Angeles Rams.
Those numbers don’t put hope in the heart of Chiefs fans. The super bowl hangover is real, both for winners and losers, but especially the loser. Just looking at the last two years, the team that lost the super bowl both missed the playoffs the next year. This does not bode well for the Chiefs, and consequently, Patrick Mahomes.
The AFC is loaded with Quarterbacks and Coaches
Mahomes does have the benefit of a Hall of Fame head coach. The combination of Andy Reid and Mahomes is one that will be nearly impossible to stop, in the near future. But as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved in the super bowl, it can be done. And the future only looks to get worse for Mahomes. For starters, his division.
Justin Herbert looks like the real deal and almost beat the Chiefs in his first start. The Las Vegas Raiders beat the Chiefs last year, and almost managed to do it twice. The Denver Broncos were the only team the Chiefs had no trouble with, but the Broncos return loaded with talent on offense. They just need a quarterback who can use that talent to its full potential.
Outside the division, the AFC is not short of talented quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson, who was the MVP two years ago, and Josh Allen, who ascended to an elite level this year, led the pack. Holding up the rear are the likes of Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Tua Tagovailoa, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, presumably Trevor Lawrence, and Ben Roethlisberger.
Outside of Roethlisberger and Tannehill, that list is young and brimming with talent. That talent means competition. And most of those quarterbacks are paired up with pretty good head coach, Frank Reich, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Brian Flores, Mike Vrabel, Kevin Stefanski, and the ever-lurking Bill Belichick.
Those two lists mean one thing for Mahomes-competition, and lots of it. Mahomes won’t have it easy for the next twenty years like Brady. And speaking of the next twenty years, here are two more reasons that we won’t see another Mahomes super bowl win.
The Salary Cap, and Mahomes Contract Extension
This is the clincher, the driving force behind my belief there won’t be another Mahomes super bowl. Remember that massive contract extension that Mahomes inked with the Chiefs last year for up to 500 million dollars? The Chiefs sure do, and they are going to have to deal with it for the next 10 years.
With the salary cap estimated to come in this year at around $185 million, $15 million short of what it was predicted to be before the season began last year. The Chiefs will have to cut some corners to keep their playmakers. Mahomes will earn $22.8 million this season. But wait, there’s more. Mahomes will be owed on average 45 million dollars a year starting in 2022.
It gets worse. Travis Kelce will earn, on average, $15 million over the next four years, with $30 million fully guaranteed. The total contract is worth $57 million. The Chiefs ALSO signed Chris Jones to a four-year contract extension worth $87 million, an average of $21 million per year. Skipping to 2022, that is an average of 81 million dollars per year, for three players.
And that is not including free agents this year. The Chiefs have three starting wide receivers, two starting cornerbacks, and their starting safety that are all about to get paid. The Chiefs simply will not be able to afford all of these players, not this year with the lowered salary cap, and not next year or the years after, because of the aforementioned 81 million dollars tied up between three players.
The Chiefs also owe Tyreek Hill $35 million over the next two years, and that is not including a contract extension that Hill will most certainly be looking for in 2022. Even if and when the salary cap goes up, there won’t be enough to go around. Either the Chiefs will be top-heavy with talent, or they won’t have many star players besides Mahomes. The point is, the contract extension with Mahomes means that they won’t be able to keep all the stars that have attributed to his success.
Andy Reid isn’t getting any younger
Another problem is looming on the horizon is one that cant be solved with money. Andy Reid is currently 62 years old. He has been coaching in the NFL for 23 years. At some point, he is going to want to stop. He has won a super bowl and his Hall of Fame case is all but guaranteed. Who’s to say that Reid won’t decide to hang it up in a year or two, especially if they lose another super bowl?
Reid can quit whenever he likes. Mahomes is tied into the Cheifs franchise for the next ten years. Most likely Reid will retire before that ten-year contract is up. And when that happens, Mahomes chances of winning another Super Bowl drastically go down.
It’s pretty simple. The talent around Mahomes won’t be there forever, his contract ensures that. The salary cap will only go up so much, and the players around Mahomes will be paid, and handsomely. Reid won’t coach forever. The AFC is loaded with young and talented quarterbacks. The head coaches in the AFC are a pretty strong group too.
The road only gets harder from here for another Mahomes super bowl. He definitely CAN make another. I just don’t think he will. The super bowl hangover is real. It’s a curse. And the only person on earth who seems to have avoided that curse is Tom Brady.