The playoff chase in the National League has been about as close as it gets with nearly every team remaining at least somewhat relevant. All three division leaders have fairly significant leads but nobody is running away with their division title, all three races are within nine games at this point. In the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies hold the biggest lead at 8.5 games over the Atlanta Braves. The Milwaukee Brewers have a 4.5-game lead on the surprising St Louis Cardinals in the Central. The juggernaut LA Dodgers possess a seven-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres in the West. None of those races are close to over and will be something to watch down the stretch.
The Wild Card is where things get interesting though, nearly every remaining team in the NL is still within four games of that third spot. The Braves are in the first spot up four games, the Cardinals hold the second spot by just 0.5 games and the New York Mets hold the last spot. The Mets have half the league chasing them down though with three teams 1.5 games back or closer in the D-Backs, Padres, and Pittsburgh Pirates. All of those teams would require a massive collapse in the next two weeks to think about selling at the deadline but there are plenty of bubble teams just barely hanging on. What will they do at the deadline? These NL teams will be sellers at the deadline if they don’t win soon.
Who Will Sell In A Crowded NL Playoff Race?
The Guaranteed Sellers
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies are not a good team and are in the midst of a long and painful rebuild that has seen them miss the postseason every year since 2018. They are once again in last place in the West and will look to build for the future at the deadline. All-star third baseman Ryan McMahon would headline a list of trade candidates, followed by veteran catcher Elias Diaz, and starting pitcher Cal Quantrill. Any of those three would bring in a solid return and are worth dealing to build toward a competitive window a few seasons down the road.
Miami Marlins
Coming off a surprise playoff appearance in 2023 the Miami Marlins have had a pretty disappointing first half in 2024. Their pitching staff, which has been their strength for years, has been ravished by injuries and is a shell of what it was last season. Whom they decide to sell at the deadline though depends on how close they think they are to contention, if they’re going for the postseason in the next year or two maybe they just deal a veteran like Josh Bell. However, if they want to look further into the future they could move on from some younger players like center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr who was once briefly the face of the franchise. The Marlins will be a very interesting team to watch in the coming weeks.
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have become one of the most interesting young teams to watch in baseball, with a plethora of young players who look primed to vault this team into contention. However, they are not there yet, in 2024 they remain closer to the basement of the NL than they are to that final playoff spot. This team is so young though they don’t have many veteran pieces they could even deal, outside of Jesse Winker every player on this roster is either young and important for the future or old but immovable, either due to their contract or poor performance.
Teams With A Decision To Make
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs thought this would be the year they made their return to the postseason, they made several solid additions in the last few off-seasons and the young guys are starting to perform. Unfortunately, though the Cubs haven’t won as much as they thought they would and are not only on the outside looking in in the Wild Card race, but they have several teams to pass to get it done. Their playoff odds currently sit at 12% which probably isn’t enough to be a buyer so unless things turn around quickly and dramatically, the Cubs will be looking to build for next year at the deadline.
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are in a very similar position to the Cubs, except they are a much older team with veterans locked into multi-year deals as well as young stars who are untouchable. Having a veteran team like they do usually means they aren’t building for the future, but it also means they have plenty of trade chips should they decide to go into a rebuild. If they decide to give up on this year, recent acquisitions Matt Chapman and Michael Conforto could very likely be on the move. For the Giants keeping their veterans could be just as risky as trading them, difficult decisions will need to be made in the San Francisco front office.
Only five of the 15 teams in the NL look like they will be sellers at the deadline, of course more could join them but as it stands right now these five teams will go a long way to shaping the marketplace for contenders on August 1st. The Cubs and Giants are both right at that decision point, whether they buy, sell, or stand pat is hard to tell. However, given their current standing in the playoff chase and their true odds of making a run, it would be wise for them to start looking toward 2025 and beyond.
Main Image: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
