5 Top-25 College Football Playoff Teams on Upset Alert in Week 11
After Week 10 brought so much excitement and change to the College Football Playoff rankings, all eyes turn to Week 11. Five weeks in a row have seen six or more ranked teams lose, including teams from previous AP Polls, shaking up the playoff picture. Week 11 could continue this trend, with major implications for the College Football Playoff as Selection Sunday approaches with three weeks remaining.
Even though five ranked teams are set to lose this week due to ranked matchups, some higher-ranked College Football Playoff teams are vulnerable to an upset, including those facing unranked opponents. Last week, four lower-ranked teams upset higher-ranked teams, including one unranked team that upset a College Football Playoff-ranked team. For that reason, we should expect more chaos in Week 11, shaking up the College Football Playoff rankings ahead of its third release on Tuesday night.
With that in mind, here are the five top-25 teams on upset alert in Week 11.
Top-25 Teams on Upset Alert
1. No. 12 Texas Tech
One of the biggest matchups in Week 11 comes in the Big 12 as No. 12 Texas Tech hits the road to take on No. 25 Oklahoma State in a matchup with major conference implications. Even though the Red Raiders enter this game in their best offensive form since making Thomas Castellanos the starting quarterback two weeks ago, they should be on upset alert against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, one of the biggest surprises this season, despite being a 3.5-point underdog.
Texas Tech has rebounded well since being upset by Cincinnati in Week 8, beating Arizona and West Virginia to put itself in control of its destiny to make the conference championship game with an 8-1 record. Since Castellanos replaced Will Hammond, the Red Raiders have played much better offensively and handled the ball better, with one turnover and an average of 43.5 points in the last two games compared to 35.9 and 12 turnovers when Hammond was under center. However, their defense has struggled, giving up an average of 37 points in the last two games compared to 20.4 in the first eight, while forcing no turnovers, which is problematic heading into this week’s game.
As for Oklahoma State, it has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, winning six games after only four wins in the last two seasons. A big reason for this resurgence has been the offense, which has been not only one of the best in the country but the best in the Big 12. Quarterback Drew Mestermaker, expected to be one of the top prospects in the 2027 NFL Draft, has been the catalyst for the unit, throwing 29 touchdowns for 2,962 yards, ranking in the top two in the country despite eight interceptions. Because of his impact, the Cowboys’ offense has averaged 44 points and 534 yards per game, ranking in the top three nationally.
This game will come down to which offense executes best, with both defenses struggling, but Oklahoma State has a huge home-field advantage, as it has never lost at home this season. Also, Texas Tech is a different team on the road than at home, averaging 29.3 points in three road games compared to 41.7 in six home games. With home-field advantage and a more explosive offense, Oklahoma State should be able to pull off the upset in this must-win game for both teams, which will shake not only the Big 12 but the College Football Playoff rankings.
2. No. 13 Wake Forest
Wake Forest has been the biggest under-the-radar team this season, going from unranked at the start of the season to No. 13 heading into Week 11 with no ranked wins. The Demon Deacons have been on a run since losing to Miami in Week 3, going on a six-game win streak and now controlling their destiny to make the ACC Championship game. However, Wake Forest should be on upset alert this week against an unranked SMU team, despite being a 1.5-point underdog.
Despite being unranked in the College Football Playoff rankings, SMU has been one of the best teams in the ACC, going 7-2. The Mustangs have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 478.6 yards and 37 points per game, both ranking in the top-20 nationally. Kevin Jennings is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country; the fifth-year senior has thrown 25 touchdowns for 2,764 yards. On defense, it averages three sacks and allows a 30% third-down conversion rate, which is among the best in the country.
Even though Wake Forest is 8-1, it hasn’t been tested since it beat a previously ranked Louisville team on the road in Week 4. Other than Louisville, the Demon Deacons have only been tested by Purdue, whom they beat in double overtime, and Miami, but they have beaten all their other opponents by 22+ points. Despite having an explosive offense and talented defense, this game against SMU will be Wake Forest’s toughest test since Miami, as it hasn’t faced a team with a winning record since Louisville. The Demon Deacons must beat an SMU team that hasn’t lost at home this season, testing their resilience.
While this is a must-win for both teams, Wake Forest needs this game more than ever because another loss could end their College Football Playoff hopes, even if they finish the season with two losses. However, SMU is coming into this game with strong momentum after blowing out Virginia Tech last week and has home-field advantage. With the Mustangs having home-field advantage and being more tested than Wake Forest, there’s a good chance they’ll upset the Demon Deacons and throw the ACC race into chaos.
3. No. 2 Utah
Heading into Week 11, Utah is one of the two remaining FBS teams with an undefeated record, having overachieved this season in the first year of head coach Morgan Scalley. Because of this success, the Utes are No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings and are first in the Big 12, on track to clinch a spot in the conference championship game. However, Utah, a 2.5-point favorite against Arizona, is on upset alert once again, as it will play an Arizona team that has been among the best in the Big 12.
Utah is currently on a 15-game winning streak and coming off its biggest win of the season last week against BYU. The Utes have been one of the most complete teams in the country, with both the offense and defense ranking in the top-20 nationally. However, Utah is facing its biggest road test of the season, as it will face its first ranked opponent on the road after playing its first two at home. The Utes haven’t been battle-tested away from home yet, as all three opponents were unranked. Utah is vulnerable to a letdown after last week’s big win.
Arizona heads into this game as the No. 23 team in the College Football Playoff rankings, with a 7-2 record and a chance to make the Big 12 championship game. Even though the Wildcats barely survived an upset bid from TCU last week, they are a strong team this season, are unbeaten at home, and are one of the most complete teams in the Big 12. Arizona’s offense, led by quarterback Noah Fifita, averages 34.1 points, 445.8 yards, and 321.9 passing yards per game, all ranking in the top-20 nationally. Despite recent struggles, the defense has also been stout, allowing 21.5 points per game.
A theme that has become evident during this season is the letdown that teams have on the road after coming off a big win. This is a huge letdown spot for the Utes as they face an Arizona team desperate to keep its hopes alive for the Big 12 Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. Even though the Wildcats haven’t beaten a ranked opponent this season, they now get to face one at home for the first time. With home-field advantage and desperation on their side, the Wildcats have a good chance to end Utah’s unbeaten record.
4. No. 6 Texas
Texas has one of the most impressive resumes in college football, having beaten four ranked opponents this season. Despite that, the Longhorns have been vulnerable, losing two consecutive games to unranked opponents and showing signs of inconsistency throughout the season. For that reason, Texas should be on upset alert against a desperate No. 21 LSU team, despite being a four-point road underdog.
The Longhorns are coming off one of their biggest road wins of the season, beating No. 22 Missouri. Now they face another tough road test against LSU, which has one of the sport’s most hostile environments. While Texas has only played three road games, it is a different team on the road than at home: it averages 26 points on the road compared to 33.7 at home. The defense allows 21.3 points per game on the road compared to 15.5 at home. Quarterback Arch Manning hasn’t played particularly well on the road, throwing for 758 yards and six touchdowns with three interceptions while being sacked 11 times. He will need a strong performance to avoid an upset against the Tigers.
LSU is coming off a disappointing home loss to Alabama last week, a must-win game that would have increased its chances of making the College Football Playoff. However, this loss doesn’t diminish how good this team is at home; it has been one of the best home teams in history, with a .733 all-time winning percentage. Before last week’s loss, the Tigers had averaged 45 points per game while holding opponents to 8.8 and won all their games this season by 21+ points. They also haven’t lost back-to-back home games since 2016, and LSU has to win this game to have any chance at making the playoff.
Despite three losses, LSU will be one of Texas’ toughest opponents, ranking No. 6 in both total offense and defense. The Longhorns haven’t faced a complete team like that since Week 2, when they beat a fully healthy Ohio State team and needed a 20-point fourth-quarter comeback. With inconsistency problems and facing a desperate LSU team looking for its first signature win in the Lane Kiffin era, we shouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers upset Texas, which could give them a slight shot at a playoff berth.
5. No. 9 Indiana
While there was a lot of chaos in Week 10, the Indiana Hoosiers had a bye week and ranked No. 4 after the first College Football Playoff rankings. However, the selection committee dropped them to No. 9 in this week’s rankings despite their bye, and they now face pressure to win this week against No. 18 USC. Even though Indiana is an 8.5-point favorite, it is on upset alert this week as it faces a USC team that also had a bye week and is coming off its biggest win of the season.
Despite their 8-1 record, the defending champions have not been as dominant as last year, winning only one Big Ten game by more than a touchdown. Ever since the team lost to Ohio State in Week 7, the Hoosiers have needed overtime to survive upset bids from unranked Michigan and Minnesota as the offense scored a combined 36 points. Even before these two games, the offense has struggled, scoring more than 20 points only once in the last four games. Along with that, Indiana was also nearly upset by Northwestern and Nebraska, so it needs to play better on Saturday if it wants to move up in Tuesday’s CFP rankings.
USC’s season looked dead after being upset by Wisconsin in Week 8, but it has been rejuvenated after upsetting Ohio State two weeks ago. That win was not only the biggest of the Lincoln Riley era, but it also kept them alive in the Big Ten race and the College Football Playoff. Despite a leaky defense, the Trojans have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 43 points per game and 500.3 yards, both ranked in the top 10 nationally. Jayden Maiava has been one of the conference’s best quarterbacks, throwing for 20 touchdowns and 2,524 yards. The defense heads into this week with momentum after having its best performance of the season two weeks ago.
The Trojans have looked like a different team away from home, struggling when traveling outside the West Coast. However, the second bye week was huge for them as it let them get extra rest before making another long trip. USC showed against Penn State this season that it is capable to go get a critical road win despite the long travel. If Indiana’s offensive struggles continue, the Trojans could pull off the upset against the defending champions that would shock the Big Ten race and the College Football Playoff.
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