After nine weeks of AP Poll rankings, the first rankings of the College Football Playoff were released on Tuesday night. Starting tonight, the selection committee took over, releasing the first of six editions of the top-25 rankings and 12-team playoff bracket before Selection Sunday on December 6.
Week 9 saw seven AP Poll-ranked teams lose, including Ohio State, which USC upset. It’s the fourth straight week that six or more ranked teams in the AP Poll have lost. In a season with no team without vulnerabilities, the selection committee had to make tough decisions in the first College Football Playoff rankings.
With Week 10 approaching with a loaded slate of ranked matchups, the first College Football Playoff rankings showed how the final stretch of the regular season is shaping up for teams in their bid to make the College Football Playoff. Here are my biggest takeaways from the first College Football Playoff rankings.
BREAKING: Initial College Football Playoff Ranking🚨
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First College Football Playoff Rankings Reaction
1. Ohio State and Notre Dame Have No Margin Of Error After Surprising Playoff Rankings
This was one of the biggest shocks in the first College Football Playoff rankings, as the selection committee ranked Ohio State No. 12 and Notre Dame No. 11. Now, after being ranked this low, both teams have no margin for error, as the Fighting Irish are the last team in. The Buckeyes are the first one out.
Ohio State has been an impressive team this season despite two losses, as it has ranked wins over Indiana and Iowa while coming up close against Texas in Week 2. However, it’s becoming clear the selection committee is factoring in Julian Sayin‘s injury, as they ranked the Buckeyes below two-loss teams like Alabama and Ole Miss, which have a weaker resume than theirs. Now, after the loss to USC and its current ranking in the first College Football Playoff rankings, it’s clear Ohio State has to go unbeaten in its remaining games to have any shot at clinching a spot in the Playoff.
As for Notre Dame, it was surprising to see it as the last team in the Playoff, given the talent on the roster. However, it’s understandable why the selection committee did it, since the Fighting Irish don’t have any ranked wins and ranked 55th in strength of schedule according to ESPN Analytics. They lost to their only ranked opponent, now-ranked No. 9 BYU, and lack a strong resume. Because of this ranking, Notre Dame has no margin for error, as it has only one more game this season against a ranked opponent: No. 1 Miami. If it doesn’t win that game, the Fighting Irish could miss the Playoff for a second straight year.
2. The SEC Dominates the College Football Playoff Picture With Five Teams in the Top 12
With the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings, it’s clear the selection committee is honoring the strength of SEC competition, with five teams in the initial playoff bracket. Those teams were Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Ole Miss, and, surprisingly, Alabama, as it’s increasingly likely there will be more than three SEC teams in the Playoff.
The biggest surprise in the first College Football Playoff rankings was Alabama being ranked No. 5 despite two losses, a weaker strength of schedule than Ole Miss, and a Week 7 blowout loss to No. 13 Tennessee. While the Crimson Tide has been one of the best teams in college football, it was head-scratching for the committee to rank them this high considering that their only ranked wins this season came against Kentucky and now-ranked No. 21 South Carolina in Week 4. It will be interesting to see whether Alabama deserves this ranking as it faces a tough road test against No. 14 LSU.
Georgia was rightfully ranked No. 2 in the country, with two ranked wins over No. 5 Alabama and No. 24 Florida. Kentucky has been one of the biggest surprises this season with a 7-1 record, and it ranked No. 6 with ranked wins over South Carolina and LSU. Texas, despite two losses, has an impressive resume, beating three ranked teams, including Ohio State. As for Ole Miss, it was ranked No. 10 despite two losses, as it beat No. 14 LSU and No. 18 Missouri. The selection committee got it right with ranking these teams in the top-12, but the Crimson Tide did not deserve a top-five ranking in the first College Football Playoff rankings.
3. Indiana and Utah Rewarded For Weak Schedules In First Playoff Rankings
In the first College Football Playoff rankings, Utah and Indiana were among the biggest winners, as both teams ranked in the top four. While their records played a major role in earning those spots, their relatively weak schedules may have helped, too. Meanwhile, teams that faced tougher non-conference opponents appear to have been penalized, raising questions about the need to schedule tough non-conference games.
The defending champions, Indiana, don’t have a strong resume to support their No. 4 ranking, with the 31st strength of schedule and no ranked wins to show for it. The Hoosiers lost their only game of the season against a ranked opponent, falling to now-ranked No. 12 Ohio State 19-15, when the Buckeyes lost their starting quarterback halfway through the fourth quarter. They had an easy non-conference schedule, playing against North Texas, Howard, and Western Kentucky. They also struggled in their last two games, coming close to being upset by Michigan and Minnesota and needing overtime to survive those upset bids.
Like Indiana, Utah doesn’t have a strong resume to support its No. 3 ranking, with the 83rd strength of schedule and only one ranked win against Houston. Aside from its wins over Houston and Cincinnati, the Utes have beaten only teams with losing records, and its non-conference schedule includes Idaho, Arkansas, and Utah State. This upcoming two-game stretch against No. 9 BYU and No. 22 Arizona will be season-defining, as Utah could essentially clinch a playoff spot with wins. In the end, both teams, despite their records, benefited from weak schedules and are now in the driver’s seat for the College Football Playoff, barring a collapse.
The Last Word
Overall, the first College Football Playoff rankings had plenty of surprises, as the Oregon Ducks were ranked No. 23 despite being dead in the water after three losses. There was also a significant gap between teams with the head-to-head advantage, like Tennessee, which was ranked eight spots behind Alabama, a team it beat earlier this season. The same happened with Ohio State, ranking eight spots behind Indiana despite beating them in Week 7.
Many teams will feel disrespected by their ranking, as some feel they deserved a higher spot. However, at the end of the day, these rankings only set the stage for what teams need to do to make the College Football Playoff, with five more editions to go.
After the first College Football Playoff rankings, five SEC teams, two Big Ten teams, two Big 12 teams, one ACC team, and one independent team are currently in the playoff bracket, with Boise State as the No. 12 seed and the highest-ranked Group of 6 team despite being ranked No. 25. With so many ranked matchups in Week 10, we could see a drastic change in the College Football Playoff rankings next week.
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