Uncertainty is what makes the NCAA so much fun, but unpredictable college basketball teams also drive fans crazy when filling out March Madness brackets. The paths of a few teams this year stand out as exceptionally difficult to understand and even more challenging to predict.
*Rankings as of February 16
College Basketball’s Six Most Unpredictable Teams
UConn
The road to a third consecutive NCAA title has been a bumpy one thus far for UConn. They started the season ranked third in the country, but after a 0-3 showing at the Maui Invitational, they were lucky to stay in the top 25. In the Huskies’ defense, they lost those first two games by a combined three points.
Since then, they have solid wins against Baylor, Texas, Gonzaga, Marquette, and Creighton, but also some frustrating losses to Xavier and Villanova. UConn has the talent and one of the premier coaches in the country, so I would not be surprised to see another deep run in March, but this team could also stumble early, as they have accomplished what was a rare occasion in the previous two seasons: repeatedly lose games.
Texas A&M
The Aggies are currently ranked eighth. They are a scrappy and relentless bunch, as their identity rests on physicality and offensive rebounding to put constant pressure on opponents for all 40 minutes. Nobody wants to play Buzz Williams’ squad, but this team is also capable of beating themselves with poor shot selection and too many fouls on defense. The question is which Aggies team will show up when it matters.
Michigan
I was, and still am, quite optimistic about this Michigan team. With a fresh coach and roster, this team has the talent to be a real force in college basketball. They boast two seven-footers in their starting lineup that thrive off each other, as sophomore Danny Wolf is a 7’0” playmaking point guard, and Vladislav Goldin is an elite scorer around the hoop. Even though the big men receive most of the attention, the rest of the roster should not be ignored. Head coach Dusty May is an offensive mastermind, but Michigan must continue to gel on the defensive end, or they will not make it very far in March.
Kansas
I still cannot quite comprehend how this Kansas team has struggled as much as they have this season. They return two-time Second-Team All-American Hunter Dickinson, 2023 Big 12 defensive player of the year Dajuan Harris, and front-court presence KJ Adams, and assembled arguably the best transfer class in the country. They entered the season as the top team in the country and sat there for five weeks. They now come in at 17, courtesy of a rollercoaster ride of a season so far. Bill Self has cemented himself as a legend in college basketball coaching, but he will likely feel hugely disappointed if this Jayhawks team cannot end the season as one of the last teams standing.
Memphis
Under head coach Penny Hardaway, Memphis has perpetually been one of the most unpredictable teams in college basketball. Fans and experts have come to expect this uncertainty, as Memphis usually comes into the season unranked, picks up a few impressive non-conference wins, jumps up in the rankings, and then disappears into mediocre conference play. This year, Hardaway’s squad is trying to rewrite that script, as they are currently 20-4 and sit 14th in the national rankings. They have scoring, and clearly enough if it to take down Missouri, UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, and Ole Miss, but they also are susceptible to playing down to weaker opponents, which could hurt them down the stretch of the season.
Arizona
Although the Wildcats lost a few players to the NBA or transfer portal, they kept a solid core from last year’s roster, including 2024 Pac-12 Player of the Year and Third-Team All-American Caleb Love. They started the season at 10th nationally, but quickly fell out of favor after a handful of early losses. An exceptional 11-2 start to Big 12 play propelled Arizona all the way up to 13 in the AP rankings. When Love and company are shooting efficiently, the Wildcats have the firepower to beat any team in college basketball, but their lack of size on defense and inconsistency from their star player may hold this team back.
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