As the weekend approaches, all 30 MLB teams will be in action to kick off a new series, so we take a look around the league for the MLB’s best bets for Friday, May 10th. Now that we have almost one and half months of data, teams have been able to show a glimpse of what they can be this season, but diving into the numbers can paint a different story. This is something that can help when looking at the market and something to keep in mind when placing your bets.
MLB Best Bets for Friday, May 10th
MLB Best Bet #1) Arizona Diamondbacks First Five Innings Team Total over 1.5 runs (-130)
Our first MLB best bet takes us to the East Coast, where the Arizona Diamondbacks will be taking on the Baltimore Orioles. While the Diamondbacks’ 18-20 record isn’t something to write home about, their offense has been solid, ranking 11th in wRC+ and 9th in batting average in the MLB, while also having a bottom-three strikeout rate and a top-three walk rate. Where the Diamondbacks have really shown their offensive prowess has been against southpaws, where they rank top in the league in wRC+ (145) and average (.313), while being second in slugging (.494).
Luckily for them, Arizona gets to display that firepower against an LHP on Friday in Cole Irvin. Irvin has been good this year on paper, posting a 2.86 ERA that ranks 39th among 143 starters with 20+ innings pitched this year, but there is reason to be pessimistic about him going forward due to his advanced analytical profile. Despite the low ERA, he ranks 81st in SIERA due to his low strikeout rate and high hard contact allowed, while also ranking 125th in Stuff+. Despite Irvin’s solid 2024 so far, he is a major negative regression candidate, one that the Diamondbacks’ offense can take advantage of and should be able to put up 2+ runs against Irvin in the first half of Friday’s contest.
MLB Best Bet #2) Philadelphia Phillies First Five Innings -0.5 run (-125)
When the Philadelphia Phillies kick off their series against the Miami Marlins on Friday, they should have massive advantages on offense and on the mound. The Phillies offense has been electric this season and even more so recently, ranking 5th in the MLB in average and slugging over their last four series. They will face Marlins’ LHP Trevor Rogers, who has struggled this season, posting the 103rd-worst SIERA of 143 starting pitchers with 20+ innings pitched. There may be some optimism in Rogers’ advanced numbers, as he has a solid ground ball rate and a whiff rate that should be producing more strikeouts, but this isn’t the game for him to get right. Philadelphia ranks 6th in average and 10th in slugging against southpaws this year, giving them a strong advantage in this matchup.
Where they have another advantage is in starting pitcher Ranger Suarez over this Marlins’ offense. Suarez has been stellar this year, owning the 6th best SIERA due to a top-25 strikeout rate and a top-10 ground ball rate, and even ranks in the top 5% of starting pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed. This does not bode well for a Marlins’ offense that has been abysmal against southpaws, ranking 29th in wRC+ due to bottom-five ranks in average and slugging. With each of the massive edges the Phillies have in this game, I expect them to carry a lead into the 6th inning.
MLB Best Bet #3) Milwaukee Brewers First Five Innings Team Total over 2.5 runs (+120)
The Milwaukee Brewers will host their NL Central rivals in the St. Louis Cardinals this weekend with both teams having very different seasons. Milwaukee sits atop the division at 22-15, while the Cardinals are at the bottom with a record of 15-22. One reason for Milwaukee’s success has been their success at the plate, ranking 7th in batting average and third in slugging this year. They also just got back Christian Yelich, who was hitting over .300 before going down with an injury almost a month ago, so their offense may even be a little underrated.
This is not something Cardinals’ starting pitcher Lance Lynn wants to hear, as it has been a rocky season for him. While Lynn’s 3.28 ERA isn’t bad, his advanced metrics tell a different story, posting a 4.44 SIERA (101st of 143) and an 82 in Stuff+ (130th of 143). Lynn has been able to control the damage, but he isn’t getting any strikeouts, not keeping the ball out of the air, and allowing hard contact, giving an indication that Lynn should be posting worse results despite already allowing 3+ runs in five innings or less in three of his seven outings this season. Milwaukee’s strong offense is even better against right-handed pitching, posting the third-best wRC+ against RHP this season, and they should get to show that off by putting up several runs on Lynn in the first five innings.
Main Image: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
