Fresh off a winning Dinger Tuesday, we are back to the MLB for some best bets on Friday, June 7th. All 30 teams are beginning a new series tonight, so we have plenty of opportunities to kick the weekend off right with some winning wagers.
MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 7th
Best Bet #1) Minnesota Twins money line (-115)
We start our best bets with the first game of the night and are backing the Minnesota Twins. They hit the road to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates this weekend, where they will look to get back on track after being swept by the Yankees during the week. Luckily, they have a good chance to do so on Friday when they send out ace Joe Ryan, who has been stellar this year despite a couple of dings in his last few starts, posting the 13th-best SIERA and 21st-best strikeout rate among starters with 30+ innings.
Ryan has been even better against lesser competition, going 6+ innings in 5/6 outings against teams ranked in the bottom half in wRC+ and posting a 2.43 ERA. Pittsburgh fits that description as an opponent, ranking 25th in wRC+ this season overall and 20th over the last two weeks. They also are much better against left-handed pitching, coming in at just 28th in wRC+ against right-handers this year and top-five highest strikeout rate. On the other side of the matchup, a solid Minnesota offense faces Mitch Keller, who is ready for some massive regression. Keller has a solid 3.42 ERA but his low strikeout, hard-hit, and ground ball rates lead to a xERA sitting much higher at 4.37. Once each team’s starter is out, I trust a Twins bullpen much ranked in the top ten this year in xFIP and SIERA much more than Pittsburgh’s, who are bottom-ten in each category.
Best Bet #2) Baltimore Orioles/Tampa Bay Rays over 8 runs (-125)
Next, we head south, where the Tampa Bay Rays will be hosting the Baltimore Orioles in an AL East matchup. Despite an underwhelming season so far, the Rays got back to .500 after sweeping the Marlins this week. The offense has held them back over the first 2+ months of the year, but they have finally turned it around a bit and are 10th in wRC+ in their last three series. Most recently this includes beating up two southpaw starters in their last two games, putting up nine earned runs on Jesus Luzardo and five on Braxton Garrett, and get a similar spot tonight against Baltimore starter Cole Irvin. His 2.61 ERA looks good on paper, but there is reason to believe Irvin’s results are outpacing his performances. He has been stellar against left-handed batters this year but dramatically worse against righties, allowing a .268 batting average and a 4.63 xFIP.
This will be a problem against a Rays squad that can stack right-handed batters, similar to how they did on Tuesday when they shelled Luzardo, where eight of the starting nine were righties. Not nearly the case needs to be made for the Baltimore offense, which has been as excellent recently (2nd in wRC+ the last two weeks) as they have all season (3rd in wRC+). Now they get a starter in Aaron Civale who has struggled all year and even more so after his first few starts, giving up 3+ earned runs in five of his last eight starts. Even when he has managed damage, he hasn’t gone into the sixth inning during this stretch, meaning the Rays would have to lean on a bullpen in the bottom half in SIERA and xFIP over the course of the full season and the last two weeks.
Main Image: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports
