The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ week four matchup against the Houston Texans is the Jaguars’ last chance to salvage their 2024 season before it collapses. For the Jaguars to salvage their season, beating the Texans in Houston is the first step, and with the injuries and momentum the Jaguars are dealing with, it’ll be a massive challenge to beat a strong Texans team.
How the Jacksonville Jaguars Can Win In Week 4
Entering the 2024 season, the Jaguars were playoff hopefuls and looking to try and reclaim the AFC South division title. The Jaguars are desperately trying to salvage their season only four weeks in. Head coach Doug Pederson is on the hot seat along with offensive coordinator Press Taylor and defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Trent Baalke is also on the verge of being fired due to the roster construction. Frustrations with Trevor Lawrence‘s play are mounting, and Jaguars fans have been trying to find any positives amid a disastrous start to the 2024 season. Coming off a week three disaster, the Jaguars need to find success in Houston.
In week four, the Jaguars head to Houston to face a Texans team coming off a blowout loss to the Minnesota Vikings. With little time left to rebound, the Jaguars are desperate. Every seat is hot, and the Jaguars need to beat the Texans if there is any hope for a playoff spot down the line. A win could bring them within striking distance, but a loss would effectively eliminate Jacksonville, sending them to zero and four to begin the season.
So, to avoid a disastrous start, how can the Jaguars beat the Texans in Houston to not only keep their playoff hopes alive, but also allow for Pederson, Taylor, and Baalke to keep their jobs?
Generate Pressure With Their Star Defenders
As is the case with every game, the Jaguars defense boils down to whether they can generate pressure on the quarterback. C.J. Stroud is an incredible quarterback, and he is a top-ten quarterback when throwing under pressure. With his ability to still be effective under pressure, Stroud will pose a problem no matter what. However, the Vikings laid the blueprint for how to give the Texans trouble.
While the Jaguars defense isn’t nearly as talented across the board as the Vikings, the Jaguars have three capable pass rushers who should be able to generate pressure. Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker, and Arik Armstead will need to generate pressure if the Jaguars want to win. Pressure isn’t going to solve all of the defense issues, but with how inconsistent the Jaguars pass rush has been, the offenses they face can get passes out quickly and on time.
With pressure being generated inconsistently, the Jaguars defense has struggled against good quarterbacks through the first three games. Josh Allen torched a Jaguars secondary, and Stroud has a chance to do the same if the pass rush can’t alleviate some of the pressure on the secondary to perform well. The Jaguars pass rush needs to get home if the Jaguars have any hope of beating the Texans, mainly due to the injuries the defense is dealing with.
Overcome Injuries to Key Players On Defense
Tyson Campbell has been out since week one and will be out for another couple of weeks. The number one corner is out, and the defense is feeling his absence, allowing a lot of yards and separation to the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns wide receivers. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, the Texans’ wide receivers are incredible, led by Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. It is a slightly easier matchup, with Tank Dell unlikely to play with bruised ribs. Montaric Brown has been filling in for Campbell and has allowed 14 receptions on 18 targets for 120 yards and a touchdown according to PFF. He’s been getting beat, and the Jaguars will need to figure something out defensively if the cornerbacks have any chance of slowing down the Texans’ high-powered offense.
Another key defender that is out is Foyesade Oluokun, the Jaguars’ best defender outside of Josh Hines-Allen. His presence will be sorely missed, as the Jaguars’ defense revolves around his play. Oluokun is the most important player on defense for Jacksonville outside of Allen, and his injury could spell trouble. Devin Lloyd will become the main linebacker, while Ventrell Miller and Chad Muma will rotate in for the absent Oluokun. According to PFF, Oluokun is the second-highest-graded player on defense for Jacksonville, has the second-highest pass rush grade, and has been the best Jaguars player in coverage through three weeks.
The injuries to Campbell and Oluokun, along with Darnell Savage, have left holes all across the defense. Jarrian Jones had an injury scare but is going into the Texans game questionable. Defensively, the Jaguars are dealing with a slew of injuries to key starters, with their best linebacker and cornerback out for the Jaguars’ first divisional game.
Stabilize The Offense
There’s no secret, the Jaguars offense has been struggling through three weeks. Despite the new additions of Brian Thomas and Gabriel Davis, the offenses’ output has been worse than expected. The injury to Evan Engram has played a factor in the offense’s instability, but there are plenty of other factors affecting the Jaguars offense.
One of these is the regression of the Jaguars offensive tackles Anton Harrison and Cam Robinson. 2023 had the Jaguars fans with optimism for 2024 and beyond, with a strong duo that begins to grow together over time. As the season has progressed in 2024 however, the Jaguars offensive tackle duo have been underwhelming. Robinson is tied for allowing the second most pressure among all offensive linemen according to PFF, while Harrison is tied for 19th for most pressures allowed.
Another issue with the offense has been Trevor Lawrence’s regression. One of his biggest issues is how disjointed he’s been. After the Bills game, it was evident that Lawrence had taken a step back. The interception thrown to Damar Hamlin was a tell-tale sign of how Lawrence has taken a step back. He had a wide-open receiver and sailed it over his head. Lawrence has been playing worse, and the offensive line has played worse as well. The combination of the two, along with Engram being out and Davis struggling through three weeks, has led to a lackluster start.
A path forward for the offense is through utilizing the ground game with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. The Jaguars have the fourth-highest run grade offensively according to PFF. With a strong run game, the Jaguars can control the clock and keep the ball out of Strouds’ hands. With the Texans’ run defense being ranked around the middle of the pack according to PFF, the Jaguars running backs should find success in week four.
The Jaguars’ path to success is tough thanks to the disconnect on offense. But, there are ways to fix the Jaguars offense going forward, and in week four utilizing the run game and having the offensive tackles protect Lawrence could drastically change the offense’s output.
Jaguars Week Four Prediction and Winning Conditions
To beat the Texans in Houston, the Jaguars desperately need to have a consistent offensive approach and generate early and often pressure on Stroud. An issue with those requirements is that the Jaguars have yet to show those traits in any of their games so far. Outside of a strong first half in week one, it’s been a disaster for Jacksonville. The offense is sluggish and inconsistent, and the defense has been getting gashed by wide receivers and running backs in the passing game. As the defense leads the league in man coverage, even with Campbell out, the Jaguars corners have been getting burnt, allowing first downs and long drives to teams. It’s an uphill battle to win against a stronger, more cohesive team, but the Jaguars have a chance.
Jacksonville has had a terrible start, and a loss to Houston could spell the end of the Doug Pederson era. Shad Khan normally doesn’t make such drastic moves, but a loss to a divisional rival, to drop to zero-and-four, could be the nail in the coffin. Winning requires a lot of things to go right, like the pass rush getting home, the corners playing some of the best play in their career, and the offense figuring things out both on the ground and through the air. All of those things have shown up briefly at times for the Jaguars, but rarely if ever have multiple been present at the same time for the Jaguars in 2024. It’s no longer just a game to stay afloat in the playoff hunt, but it’s now a game that will dictate whether these players and coaches have jobs moving forward.
Heading into week one against the Dolphins, the Jaguars had a good shot to beat the Miami Dolphins. But, they lost after a late collapse, reminiscent of their 2023 season. Heading into week two against a top defense, the Jaguars had a chance to beat a tough team in the Browns. But, they squandered a late opportunity after committing a litany of mistakes early and dropped to zero and two. That loss sparked major concerns, and heading into week three the Jaguars were in desperate need of a decent offensive showing. Instead, it was one of the worst losses in franchise history, with the Bills throttling the Jaguars in primetime, with the only saving grace that a much more entertaining game was on at the same time. Now, entering week four, the Jaguars look to get themselves out of a downward spiral that could not just derail the season but also result in many Jaguars players and coaches losing their jobs.
With all the cards laid out on the table, all signs point towards the Texans beating Jacksonville in Houston. It’s a tough matchup, even if Jacksonville was in a much better situation. But between the injuries to key players on both sides of the ball, the regression from the star players, and the disconnection between the players, front office, and coaching staff, the Jaguars are significantly less likely to beat the Texans than they were hoping they would be before the season began.
As is the case with the majority of fans, media, and experts, the Jaguars are predicted to lose to the Texans and subsequently enter territory where the general manager and coaches could be fired after a zero-and-four start of the 2024 NFL season.
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