Whether you’re betting or just like preseason predictions, over/under win totals are a common way to gauge a team’s expectations going into a season. After an eventful offseason that included big signings and blockbuster trades, there’s a lot of excitement surrounding the 2026 campaign. There are always questions about teams’ O/U win totals and whether they are too high or too low, and that’s the case again this season. As the NFL season gets underway, let’s take a look at a few teams that will hit the OVER on their projected win totals and a few that will hit the UNDER.
2026 NFL O/U Win Totals
Teams To Hit the OVER
Los Angeles Rams (11.5 wins) – Predicting whether or not a contending team reaches 12 wins or more is always a challenge, but in the Rams’ case, they’re the most likely team to do so. They are HEAVY Super Bowl favorites after what they did in the offseason.
Coming off an NFC Championship Game appearance, the Rams traded for cornerback Trent McDuffie and then made the blockbuster move to acquire the NFL’s single-season sacks leader in Myles Garrett. If that wasn’t enough, the rumors of Aaron Donald‘s return came true as he announced his comeback to the Rams for the 2026 season, increasing their odds even more to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The Rams won 12 games last season and not only got better but have a bottom half strength of schedule, signaling that they’ll hit the OVER.
Green Bay Packers (9.5 wins) – The Packers head into the season being overlooked by media and fans alike, and that’s just how they want it. It’s true that they’ll be without Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs to start the season, but they have the pieces to overcome.
When healthy, the Packers have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the league with Jordan Love throwing to Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft. And on defense, the Packers have up and coming talent looking to step up and emerge without Parsons, something they can do while he’s out. They also start the season with a lighter schedule with the Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Green Bay can manage a few games without Parsons, and then it’s all systems go when he gets back.
Houston Texans (9.5 wins) – They say defense wins championships and if that’s the case, this Texans defense makes them a Super Bowl contender. Now it’s just a matter of whether the offense can do their part, and it starts with C.J. Stroud having a bounce-back season. He doesn’t have to be elite, but being a little above average would go a long way for this team. If that was the case last season, the Texans would’ve played in the AFC Championship Game and possibly the Super Bowl.
Houston had 12 wins last season. Even if Stroud performs the same, there’s no reason to believe that the Texans will dip to nine wins or below with this defense, not with the likes of Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Derek Stingley Jr. leading the charge.
Teams To Hit the UNDER
Cleveland Browns (5.5 wins) – The quarterback situation is why the Browns will hit the under for their O/U win total in 2026. Deshaun Watson was named the starting quarterback for Cleveland, possibly the worst starter in the league. Even if Shedeur Sanders were under center, which he may be at some point this season, their situation wouldn’t change.
Losing Garrett took away any hope of hitting the over in this situation, and while the defense is still pretty solid with the subtraction, it’s not enough to cover up all the holes on this team and surpass five wins.
New York Giants (7.5 wins) – The Giants are a tricky team to gauge this season. They got a new coach in John Harbaugh and have promising young talent on both sides of the ball, but with that come a lot of question marks. Their trio of Jaxson Dart-Cam Skattebo-Malik Nabers is a huge question mark heading into the season because of their health.
Another question mark is the Giants defense outside of their pass rush. Harbaugh can put his fingerprints on this team up front, but outside of that, it could look rough. While they have nice pieces in place, this roster isn’t complete, and it might take another year or two for Harbaugh to get this team in position to succeed.
Baltimore Ravens (11.5 wins) – Hitting the under in this case doesn’t mean that the Ravens will be bad; it just means that they won’t have 12 wins, and that’s okay. Many believe they’ll finish with 11 wins, which would be a great season, but their win total is set at 11.5, which means the under would hit.
The Ravens are AFC North favorites in 2026 and could challenge for a Super Bowl as long as they still have Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the field. They also added a premier pass rusher this offseason in the form of Trey Hendrickson. If this defense can stay healthy, unlike last season, the Ravens could make some noise under first year head coach Jessee Minter. 11 wins seems like a perfect target for the Ravens in 2026; it just means they’ll finish a win under their projection.
Main Image: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images
