With media day here and several weeks before the start of the season, as we hear from the team, here are four burning takes for the 2025-26 season for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Oklahoma City Thunder Predictions Heading Into the Season
Chet Holmgren Will Be An All-Star
Over the summer, the Thunder signed Chet Holmgren to a rookie max extension — solidifying their belief in him, as part of their big three, moving forward.
At the beginning of last season, Holmgren looked primed to be an All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year candidate. In the nine full games he played, he averaged 18.2 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2.9 blocks on 52/40/78 shooting splits. He looked like the “unicorn” player that the Thunder drafted him to be — and then, he broke his hip.
This caused him to miss 39 games, wiping out his offensive rhythm — mainly being relegated to a play-finisher and shot-up shooter for the remainder of the season.
Now, with a full offseason, Holmgren has the opportunity to refine his game and recapture the momentum he had at the start of last season, continuing to develop into a two-way star.
Will the NBA reward three All-Stars for the Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a shoe-in (barring injury), and Jalen Williams, ascending into an All-Star last season, and being the beneficiary of a reputation boost? Durability and offensive consistency will be the other main questions. Still, my first hot take is that Holmgren will remain durable and make the production leap, having the winning factor on his side to become a first-time All-Star and the Thunder’s third All-Star.
Cason Wallace Will Start 70 Percent of the Games He Plays In
Last year, Cason Wallace played 68 games and started 43 of them (accounting for 63 percent of the games he played). You can never predict or factor in injuries, but everyone knows that injuries happen to every team throughout the course of the season.
There’ll be an emphasis on the continuation of the development of the double big lineup (Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein). However, throughout the course of last season, there wasn’t a lot of action together; there were stretches where the Thunder struggled and deviated from the double big lineup.
The Thunder are at their best when playing with a single big on the floor. Wallace’s defensive playmaking and offensive flexibility fit perfectly with the starting unit. Of course, there will be certain matchups that will require the double-big lineup, and we can still play them together sparingly. Most importantly, don’t rule out the possibility of Wallace’s leap and him playing his way into being a clear starter outright.
The Thunder will have 3 All-Defensive players
In the 2024-25 season, the Thunder bolstered a historical defense that paved the way to the best season in franchise history — capturing their first-ever championship.
Lu Dort and Jalen Williams were the two Thunder players who made the All-Defensive Teams, but there could have been more Thunder representatives if it weren’t for injuries.
The Thunder roster has five legitimate All-Defensive players: Holmgren, Dort, Williams, Wallace, and Alex Caruso.
With only 10 spots on the NBA All-Defensive Team, not only will the Thunder have to replicate the same level of success as the previous season, but they will also have to sustain similar production for a minimum of 65 games, which multiple Thunder players on this list failed to do. Only three teams have had three or more players on the All-Defensive team in a single season:
- 1969–1970 New York Knicks: Willis Reed, Dave DeBusschere, and Walt Frazier
- 1975–1976 Boston Celtics: Dave Cowens, John Havlicek, and Paul Silas
- 1995–1996 Chicago Bulls: Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and Dennis Rodman
SGA Will Be the 10th Player to Join the 50/40/90 Club
What does it mean to be a part of this exclusive club? It means a player shoots at least 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three-point range, and 90 percent from the free-throw line in a single regular season.
Only nine players have had 50-40-90 seasons: Larry Bird (twice), Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash (four times), Stephen Curry, Malcolm Brogdon, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Durant (twice).
SGA has been the epitome of efficiency, and every time we try to put a cap on him, he takes another leap. Would it be surprising if his efficiency takes another jump?
While SGA should have no issues with his field-goal percentage — shot over 50 percent in three consecutive seasons and hovered around 90% from the free-throw line last season, bumping his three-point percentage to 40 percent will be his biggest challenge.
Two ways this could play out: SGA cutting out the side-step & pull-up threes out of his shot diet and only taking very comfortable and open threes. Now, the best sign for the Thunder would be seeing SGA evolve into a pull-up three-point shooter, as he has developed a new skill set in his game every year.
This hot take is the most significant championship indicator. Suppose SGA achieves such a prestigious feat by not actually cutting out his threes but by playing his game effectively. In that case, it will make the Thunder even better than last season and solidify them as championship favorites.
Main Image: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
