2024 New York Mets O/U: Why the Mets Will Hit the UNDER

It’s getting hot in Port St. Sluice, FL; as we eagerly anticipate the upcoming New York Mets 2024 Major League Baseball season. The Mets have been assessed at 81.5 wins for 2024 from FanDuel Sportsbook, yet many predict they will fall short of this marker. Let’s jump into the reasons for this prediction, examining the team’s strengths, weaknesses, and key players who could swing the pendulum in either direction.  

The Mets present a dangerous complex team for the 2024 season. On the one hand, they possess a roster brimming with talent. On the other hand, they are confronted with a multitude of uncertainties and challenges, as well as an unreasonable payroll that could hinder their progress.

The Mets, having ended the 2023 season with a disappointing 75-87 record, have been looking to bounce back with a strong showing in 2024. They had one of the most challenging seasons in recent memory, primarily due to a midseason stretch of 9-17 that all but destroyed their playoff hopes. However, the team did have its moments of brilliance and individual standouts who kept the Mets’ spirit alive.

The 2024 New York Mets Will UNDER the 81.5 O/U Wins

The team’s path for the 2024 season is as certain as death and taxes can be summed up in one word: tragic. While impressive on paper, the Mets’ current roster raises several questions. Injuries have plagued key players, and the team’s reliance on a “bridge year” strategy could compromise their competitive edge.

Offensive Struggles

Pete Alonso, known for his exceptional home run prowess, ended the season with 46 home runs and a batting average of .217. Francisco Lindor, another key player, had 31 home runs and 98 RBIs with a batting average of .254. Nither, including Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte, will improve in 2024.

However, Jeff McNeil had a down year by his standards, delivering a batting average of .270 with ten home runs, 55 RBIs, and 75 runs while also fielding an on-base percentage of .333. Look for a bounce back on McNeil’s 2024 season and a bright spot on the Mets lineup. 

Pitching and Defense

In pitching, Kodai Senga emerged as the top starter for the Mets, ending the season with a 12-7 record and a commendable 2.98 ERA. His forkball and cutter were particularly effective, drawing comparisons to Corbin Burnes. However, despite Senga’s strong performance, the Mets’ overall pitching depth was lacking, impacting the team’s ability to win games consistently.

The Mets also acquired Adrian Houser in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers to bolster their defense. Then, they signed cross-town Yankee Pitcher Luis Severino, the king of ups and downs. Spoiler Alert: the ups will be outnumbered by the downs when it comes to Severino. But even with these additions, the Mets will struggle in the field, contributing to their disappointing season.

Lack of Speed on Bases

Another area where the Mets could struggle is their base-running. The 2023 Mets set the single-season record for stolen base success rate at 88.72%, stealing 118 bases and only getting caught 15 times. However, Lindor and Marte have reached their base-stealing peak and can not maintain or even improve their stealing base numbers, so unfortunately, the Mets will struggle to replicate this success in 2024.

Not ready for the Mets 2024, but a look to the future is bright

Mets’ young players like Francisco AlvarezBrett Baty, and Mark Vientos can break out, and the team successfully amasses pitching depth; they might find a way to surpass the projected 81.5 wins and possibly even challenge for a National League Wild Card berth. It’s on the horizon, but that isn’t a probable reality in 2024. 

Then there is Luisangel Acuña, the younger brother of Brave’s legendary superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., who is currently on the 40-man roster and is like an agile leopard ready to leap into the big leagues. His excellent performance in the 2023 season puts him in a favorable position to make his major league debut in 2024. He will be a mega star in NY and will ignite a fierce NL East Rivalry with his brother; while exciting, we are still a year or two away from that reality.

The Bottom Line: Under 81.5 Wins for the Mets 

The 2024 season for the New York Mets is a challenging journey. With their set win target of 81.5 looking increasingly ambitious, the Mets will not improve on 78 wins from last year with underdeveloped youth, poor free agency off-season, underperforming veterans, and increased competition from the Braves, Phillies, and Dodgers in the NL. However, as any follower knows, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen when the first pitch is thrown.

Main Image: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

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