After what was an equally wild Week 1 for NFL teams and my Steakspeare’s Spreads picks, we finally settled on a losing week of 2-3. Unfortunately, the Zach Wilson news hit after this article, so the Jets pick lost on Wednesday, Russ couldn’t cook against his former team (although two goal-line fumbles by both running backs determined this outcome) and while the Panthers bet felt like it was the right side, ultimately failed to cash…BUT HAVE NO FEAR! I have learned as have most of you who to bet and who to stay away from, especially with this week’s games! five more to go, let’s see if we can right the ship!
(+means underdog; -means favorite)
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers
We start with another Thursday night Football game featuring a rivalry matchup in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite at home, which means they likely would have been a “pick-em” favorite on the road at like -.05. This tells me I need to bet the number more than the teams if that makes sense.
Patrick Mahomes went off yesterday with 350+ pass yds, 5 pass TD and 0 INT.
The last player to do that …
Patrick Mahomes 😲 pic.twitter.com/QHHZkiFn2U
— Hard Rock Sportsbook (@HardRockSB) September 12, 2022
The Chiefs also came out like they had something to prove and demolished what many thought would be a formidable Cardinals team. The Chargers, on the other hand, are coming off a hard-fought divisional win against the Raiders. Granted, the Raiders turned the ball over three times and still almost won the game. So, I am siding with the Chiefs here, who didn’t seem to have any flaws this past week. If the line were 4.5 or higher I wouldn’t have the stomach for this pick, but 3.5 feels right and the Chiefs will succeed in this.
Detroit Lions (-1.5) vs Washington Commanders
In what was easily the game of the week in Week 1, the Lions lost a high-scoring heartbreaker to the Philadelphia Eagles that felt like it was out of reach multiple times. It goes to show that all the Hard Knocks hype and drama weren’t for the camera, this team has heart and won’t just lay down and lose. The Eagles also look to be a dynamic team that may be the year’s breakout team if they continue to play that way.
The Commanders on the other hand couldn’t seem to put away the Jaguars and almost fell victim to the enigma that is Carson Wentz (two picks). Look, this is probably a game you won’t watch unless you’re a fan of either team, but the Lions looked like a team that can compete and the Commanders just didn’t look good. I think the one-two punch the Lions have at running back is the difference maker in this game that will likely be an old-school war of the trenches style game and the Lions give me the feeling that they can win games like that. 1.5 is a good line in a game like this, and the Lions win and cover.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
Ok, I know what you’re thinking, Bengals homer writing about how his hometown team covers a massive spread on the road, but hear me out. The Bengals are coming off an embarrassingly bad loss to their heated rival, the offensive line struggled, and there appeared to be a Superbowl hangover that even greasy food and Tylenol couldn’t help. The fact of the matter is, they played as badly as they have in a while and still almost won.
On the flip side, I’d argue Dallas played worse and has a horrible challenge now going forward with a backup quarterback in Cooper Rush. Even when Dak Prescott was playing, the team failed to score a touchdown or even move the ball effectively and the Bengals defense wasn’t the unit that contributed to the loss.
Maybe this is the fan in me, but it means something that Joe Burrow took nearly two hours to leave the locker room as reported in Cincinnati after the loss. The team needed this humbling and I expect an immediate and decisive response.
Chicago Bears (+9.5) @ Green Bay Packers
In most cases, I wouldn’t touch a line this big, but I’m intrigued. Mostly because these teams both aren’t that good offensively, which is shocking since the back-to-back MVP is on one side.
The Packers are noticeably weaker this year as far as passing although they may have something in running back A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones as a one-two punch at running back. The Bears are also coming off an upset wind in what was possibly the ugliest weather game we will see all year.
Hot take: I don’t believe quarterback Justin Fields played badly. Given the circumstances of the weather, he managed the game as effectively as he could and beat a way better roster than his by two possessions. I’m betting the number here not the teams. The Packers likely win, but 9.5 is way too much given what these teams both looked like in Week 1, even if Rodgers “owns” them.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
This has all the makings of Game of the Week here. Two offenses that exploded in Week 1, on Primetime TV. To start, Jalen Hurts looks to have found a tremendous number one receiver in A.J. Brown who tore up the Lions secondary for 155 yards. Hurts also was a significant threat running the ball carrying for 90 yards and a Touchdown.
The new-look Vikings in the post-Mike Zimmer era started off hot, especially with their number one receiver Justin Jefferson showing that he deserves conversation as one of the NFL’s best. He lit up the game with 184 yards and two touchdowns. So we have a couple of dynamic offenses with solid run games and playmakers on both sides of the ball, I’m betting the home team here. This game is going to be go-either-way the entire time, so don’t expect to be able to go to bed early on Monday, this game will be everything NFL fans want and more. POINTS!
I hate that I started with a losing week, but you just can’t predict two separate goal-line possessions ending in two different players fumbling as they go in. This week we won’t have that luck! Speak it into existence! Let’s win some CASSSSSSHHHHHHH!