Is Jimmy Garoppolo Severely Underrated?
Despite boasting a 33-14 career record, over 3,800 passing yards, and 20-plus touchdowns in two of the last three years, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has cast aside Jimmy Garoppolo.
When considering his resume, this is a bold move. The quarterback has won the Super Bowl twice (as a back-up in New England), averages a high 60s pass completion rate, and boasts nearly a two-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Teams should be fighting each other to get a player with such quality – but this is far from the case. What’s more, when comparing the betting trends with his stats, the 30-year-old is also severely underrated by bettors.
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Betting Profits of Top NFL Quarterbacks
| Quarterback | Record | Profits (For $100 bettors) |
| Ryan Tannehill | 38-23 | +$1,989.66 |
| Marcus Mariota | 28-20 | +$1,563.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 49-17 | +$1,557.46 |
| Josh Allen | 42-25 | +$1,253.65 |
| Nick Foles | 19-12 | +$1,154.74 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 35-17 | +$1,011.03 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 58-16 | +$954.05 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 15-24 | +$850.04 |
| Alex Smith | 20-14 | +$660.59 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 42-24-1 | +$475.88 |
Looking at quarterback profitability when based on wins is one way to see how teams have played in relation to Vegas oddsmakers’ expectations. According to these stats, Garoppolo is one of the most profitable quarterbacks in the last five years – securing +$1,011.03 for $100 bets wagered on the Moneyline in his last 52 games.
Therefore, he’s been better betting value than Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes, and even Tom Brady. Aside from the betting profits, Garoppolo has the seventh-highest quarterback win percentage in football (minimum 50 games) during his time with the 49ers.
[pickup_prop id=”22193″]
Covering the Spread
With Garoppolo on the field, San Francisco has gone 29-22-1 against the spread (56.9 percent win rate). But in games during the last five years without the former Patriots player, the 49ers are 15-20 against the spread (42.9%). Although coach Kyle Shanahan gets most of the credit for San Francisco’s recent runs of success, the team has performed much better with “Jimmy G” than without him.
More Than A Game Manager
Once hailed as the next big thing in the NFL, Garoppolo’s name is often mentioned in the same vein as quarterback “game managers” like Alex Smith and Derek Carr.
Even though San Francisco’s system produces easy throws, focuses on the running game, and enables quarterbacks to complete passes at a high rate, Garoppolo is not a game manager – and never has been. During his final college season with Eastern Illinois, he passed for 53 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards in only 14 games.
The 49ers desire to replace Garoppolo with emerging talent Trey Lance makes it seem like the quarterback’s
Admittedly, Garoppolo doesn’t possess the mobility like young stars Burrow, Mahomes, or Jackson. But when it comes to passing accuracy, he can go toe to toe with the best in the league.
Prop Betting: Passing Yards OVER/UNDER
Despite only covering his passing yards OVER/UNDER in five of his ten starts last season, he averaged 14 more yards per game than his average yardage prop (240.1). In the three starts where Garoppolo’s passing yards line dropped below 230, he hit the OVER every time.
So regardless of who Garoppolo plays for next season, expect his passing yards to go over more than under.
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Severely? No, I don’t think so. Properly rated? Perhaps.
While I think Jimmy G is okay, he can’t win you games by himself the way the league’s top-paid quarterbacks have to be able to. Think Kirk Cousins or Alex Smith; they’ll win lots of games on good teams. However, the minute they’re shouldering the load, they will be wildly disappointing.
Look at a stat you used, Yards Per Completion; he was first. But if you put that in context, he had two top 15 guys in Yards After the Catch, Deebo Samuel (2nd) and George Kittle (15th). Even Brandon Aiyuk was 43rd. That’s a lot of work being done by the receivers. His ADoT (Average Depth of Target) is only 7.6, good for 29th in the league.
I can’t find the article right now, I think it was at the Athletic, but he also DOES NOT throw the ball outside the hash marks. He doesn’t have great arm strength, so he has trouble getting the ball to the sidelines, and that’s where a lot of his interceptions occur (12 interceptions against just 20 touchdowns this season despite playing in a stacked offense that does a great job scheming players open).
He can drive your car safely in good road conditions. But even if you give him a Ferrari, he won’t win you the race, and if it starts to snow, he’s liable to crash.