Week 14 hit with a thud. That’s how things go in DFS. If you weren’t on the Saints–49ers game you may have struggled to hit green. But, that’s the beauty of DFS! We keep grinding. While I thought week 14 was thin, week 15 NFL DFS offers a number of games with excellent match-ups and healthy implied totals that we can target. Prices are starting to catch up to players in plus match-ups. There isn’t a clear value player, such as Bilal Powell, that stands out yet. However, that doesn’t mean there won’t be. Keep your eyes on the news. And, in the meantime, I’m going to dive deep to bring you week 15 NFL DFS under the radar plays.
Players and pricing taken from DraftKings, Sunday, main slate.
Week 15 NFL DFS: Under the Radar Plays
Quarterback: David Blough $5,300
Now before I start on Blough, let’s be clear. He’s a GPP (guaranteed prize pool) dart throw. There are quite a few quarterbacks that will get more ownership that are priced down this week. For instance, $6,100, Jimmy Garoppolo home against the Atlanta Falcons, $5,600 Kyler Murray, home against the Cleveland Browns are both excellent value. We can even make a case for $5,600 Derek Carr home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I even like Eli Manning $5,200 on the road against the Miami Dolphins.
With that being said, I’m choosing Blough, of the Detroit Lions, as my under the radar quarterback play for week 15. First of all, Blough put up solid numbers against the Chicago Bears‘ defense. Yes, he struggled on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. However, Blough and the Lions get a much easier match-up, back at home, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs still have a decent run defense which will slow the running game. However, Blough has passed for 38 and 40 attempts. Expect those numbers to stay the same. The game implied total is a stout 47.5 points. Additionally, the Buccaneers will be without offensive weapon Mike Evans. The game should stay close with a lot of passing and possibly a lot of interceptions.
Week 14 under the radar play: Josh Allen, 11.74 fantasy points. Outcome: Bust!
Running Back: Duke Johnson $4,100
The Houston Texans travel to Tennesee to battle the Titans for sole possession of first place. The over/under is a healthy 48.5 points with the Titans a three-point favorite. For that reason, I really like Johnson as my week 15 NFL DFS under the radar running back. Additionally, the Titans are bottom ten against the rush and have given up the second-most receptions to running backs. Deshaun Watson has been looking for Johnson in the passing game averaging 7 targets in the past two games. Although Johnson doesn’t see the same type of volume, he could easily pay off that price tag.
Week 14 under the radar play: Melvin Gordon, 19.4 fantasy points. Outcome: Solid!
Wide Receiver: Dede Westbrook $4,600
This will be the second time that I profile Westbrook as my under the radar wide receiver. He continues to see consistent targets and is a broken tackle away from going to the house every time he touches the ball. He only has two touchdowns on the year and I’m hard-pressed to think he doesn’t hit pay-dirt any more than that. If you believe in positive regression then you can do worse than Westbrook. The Jaguars–Raiders game has the feel of two bad teams that are going to put up points against each other for the simple fact that both defenses are bad. You could also consider the quarterbacks in this game for GPP’s.
Christian Blake, of the Atlanta Falcons, priced at $3,100 should get your attention. He’ll take Calvin Ridley‘s place in the starting line-up. He received nine targets when taking Julio Jones‘ place two weeks ago and the Falcons will have to pass a lot to keep up with the 49ers. Additionally, with the Lions placing Marvin Jones on injured reserve, there will be a spike of volume for Kenny Golladay $7,200 and Danny Amendola, value, $4,100. Both make for an under the radar stack against Tampa Bay.
Week 14 under the radar play: Auden Tate, 2.6 fantasy points. Outcome: BUST!
Tight End: Ian Thomas $3,100
Thomas was the value du jour for week 14 NFL DFS. He came through much like Tyler Higbee of the Los Angeles Rams the week before. Although Thomas’ price has come up just a bit he’s still a good value compared to Higbee priced at $3,900. I like the savings we get with Thomas and also the match-up. The Carolina Panthers are six-point, home underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks with a high implied total of 48.5 points. Also, the Seahawks are the third-worst team against the tight end position. With that being said, I don’t know-how under the radar this play is? But, it won’t keep me from going back to Thomas in a game that Kyle Allen will have to throw.
Keep your eye on the tight end situation in Denver. Noah Fant is currently listed as questionable with a bruised foot and hip injury. If he’s ruled out Sunday, then Jeff Heuerman $2,600 is very good value, in an offense that looks for their tight ends, against the Kansas City Chiefs, a bottom ten defense against the tight end.
Defense: Arizona Cardinals $2,200
Baker Mayfield has been prone to mistakes and this is another game that could feature a lot of scoring and turnovers from both teams. Mayfield averages one interception per game and gets sacked at least twice per game. So, it makes sense going back to the Cardinals as a home underdog to the visiting Cleveland Browns. I’ll continue to punt the defense and take three times the price from the Cardinals.
Under the Radar
There are a lot of games to target for week 15 NFL DFS. And, as we get to the finish line of the NFL season this is when things get a little weird. Pay attention to the teams that are out of the play-offs. Under the radar players on those teams will get more playing time as they audition for the future. Additionally, teams fighting for the play-offs will typically begin to pull out all of the stops. We can target those teams as we can expect a spike in passing from those teams. It’s a great time of year to pivot, go under the radar and take down a GPP. Who do you think is going under the radar?
Good luck and good DFS!
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