The college football season is officially back, and Week 1 is delivering some of the best matchups to kick off the season in a long time, to go along with sharp betting angles.
With a new season comes new rosters, coaches, and for some, new bets. I have two best bets for the first week of the season, including the Alabama vs. Florida State and Utah vs. UCLA in a nightcap.
Let’s dive in and discuss my two best bets for this week.
Best Bets For Week 1 of College Football
First Best Bet
Preview: #8 Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles
Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 3:30 PM EST
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Broadcast: ABC
Spread: Alabama -13.5
The Florida State Seminoles enter year six under head coach Mike Norvell after a disastrous 2024 season. Norvell acquired Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos in the transfer portal to take over for DJ Uiagalelei, in what might have been some of the worst quarterback play in all of college football. Castellanos comes in with impressive stats: last season, he had a completion rate under pressure of 62%, ranking him in the top 15 nationally. Additionally, his explosive-run percentage was 9%, which adds to his dual-threat ability and gives the Seminoles’ offense a dynamic spark. These metrics showcase why Castellanos is regarded as a significant acquisition and have raised expectations for a turnaround this season.
Florida State will also debut its new stadium in its first game at newly renovated Doak Campbell Stadium with a boosted capacity of 67,277. They will need all the support they can get to keep this one close.
As for Alabama, the Ty Simpson era officially begins after he sat behind Jalen Milroe the past two seasons. Simpson has a top-two receiver at his disposal in Ryan Williams. You couldn’t ask for more from the young star after he brought in 48 passes for 865 yards and 8 touchdowns as a freshman.
The trenches will be key in this matchup as most expect Alabama’s highly rated offensive line to be able to wear down a revamped Florida State defensive line. However, Norvell knows how to find defensive lineman, whether it’s through the transfer portal or recruiting, which leads me to my pick in this one.
Betting Pick: Florida State +13.5, Alabama 35, Florida State 24
Yes, I know I am going against the majority here, because most analysts expect Alabama to cover. However, I think Castellanos’s ability to extend plays and Florida State’s motivation after last year’s collapse give them a legitimate chance to keep the game competitive. With the new quarterback and an offseason dedicated to preparing for Alabama, I’m confident they can stay within the number, and if Florida State needs a late score, Castellanos has the skill to deliver.
Key Betting Trends
- Alabama is 9‑0 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine Week 1 openers.
- FSU is 1‑8 ATS in its last nine opening games.
Second Best Bet
Preview: Utah Utes vs UCLA Bruins
Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025, 11:00 PM EST
Location: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, CA
Broadcast: FOX
Spread: Utah -6
Years ago, this would have been a conference game in the Pac-12, but now it’s a Big 12 vs Big Ten out-of-conference matchup. How times have changed. The difference in conference styles—Big 12’s rapid, high-scoring pace against the Big Ten’s physical, defensive grind—adds an intriguing layer to the matchup.
The major headline for UCLA was acquiring quarterback Nico Iamaleava in the transfer portal from Tennessee. This may be the best quarterback for the Bruins since Brett Hundley and Josh Rosen were under center.
Deshaun Foster goes into his second year after finishing 5-7 in his first season. Chip Kelly left for the Ohio State Offensive Coordinator position, and there wasn’t a lot to work with last season as far as talent was concerned. However, this year the Bruins have upgraded via the transfer portal at several positions.
Utah failed to live up to expectations last season, with Head Coach Kyle Whittingham calling it a disappointment as the preseason Big 12 favorite that ultimately stumbled to a 5–7 record.
It’s been a quarterback carousel in Utah after Cam Rising’s injury was worse than what many originally thought last year. However, Utah did upgrade the quarterback position by dipping into the transfer portal and grabbing Devon Dampier from New Mexico. Expect the offense to be more explosive and more dynamic under new offensive coordinator Jason Beck.
Betting Pick: UCLA +6, UCLA 28, Utah 24
I expect this game to start slowly with both offenses struggling early, but to become more explosive in the second half. UCLA’s strong run defense, which excelled last year, should help contain Utah’s ground game and force mistakes from its new quarterback. This defensive edge is a key reason I believe UCLA will keep it close and could pull off the upset.
I’m calling my shot with an upset here, believing the game will be decided in the final moments. With Iamaleava’s poise, I expect him to lead UCLA on a late drive to win, which supports my pick of UCLA covering the spread and potentially winning straight up.
Key Betting Trends
- Utah is 6-1 straight up (SU) and ATS in its last seven matchups vs UCLA.
- The Utes are 1-7 SU in their last eight overall.
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