To say this is a fluid situation is of course an understatement as things will inevitably change as the season progresses. However, there are teams that have so far exceeded expectations that have a chance to crash the new and expanded college football playoff if things continue to break their way.
None of the teams on our list were in the top 12 in the preseason although some were in the top 25.
These are all clearly early projections but each of these teams looks better than expected so far in the young season. With continued good play and some breaks going their way at least one or two of these squads could make their way into the 12-team playoff.
CFB Playoff Sleepers After Week Four
5. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee was projected to be pretty good this season but by most experts to finish just outside of the playoff. They lost their top two running backs but seldom used Dylan Sampson from last season has been on fire so far this year. Through three games he has rushed for 356 yards and nine touchdowns.
Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has picked up right where he left off after an impressive bowl game against Iowa to cap off last season. He’s showing himself to be one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. The one thing that works against the Vols is their schedule beginning with a road trip to Norman, Oklahoma this week. They also have a home game against Alabama and a daunting trip to Athens to face Georgia. The Vols defense hasn’t been tested yet against weaker opponents however the 51-10 win at NC State is impressive. If they can finish with a record of 10-2 they will be a lock for the playoff.
4. Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats are one of the teams ranked in the top 25 before the season started but none of the rankings had them in the top 12. So far they have impressed including last week’s 31-7 win over a previously ranked Arizona squad.
Quarterback Avery Johnson has picked up right where Will Howard now at Ohio State left off. Johnson has thrown for 490 yards with six passing touchdowns with only one interception and has picked up 187 yards on the ground through the first three games of the season.
K-State historically plays strong defense and this year has been no exception early on. The Wildcats have some difficult games coming up including Oklahoma State, at Colorado, at Iowa State, and against Kansas. They do avoid Utah in conference which gives them a good chance to win the conference which should get them in the playoff if they can finish with no more than two losses.
3. USC Trojans
Yes USC was ranked in the top 25 to begin the season but expectations were tempered after a poor showing last season, bad defense, and the departure of quarterback Caleb Williams to the NFL. Yet so far so good for the Men of Troy.
Coming off his six-passing touchdown performance in last year’s bowl game after Williams opted out, Miller Moss has been a bit more pedestrian through two games this season although he has certainly been solid. This week the schedule gets tougher as the Trojans head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan.
After this week the schedule sets up nicely for USC with all three of their toughest remaining games at home against Penn State, Nebraska, and Notre Dame. The Trojans also avoid Oregon and Ohio State which gives them a realistic shot at the conference championship game and a spot in the playoff. The defense also looks to be improved although two games is a small sample size.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year two has been the most telling year for Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule during his previous two college coaching stops at Temple and at Baylor. And this season he looks to have the Huskers heading in the right direction.
Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola has the fanbase dreaming about the next coming of Patrick Mahomes. There is even a resemblance between the two of them. So far he has been as advertised. More importantly, is that the “Blackshirts” appear to be back or at the very least much improved over previous seasons. Through three games the Huskers’ defense has only surrendered 20 points and while the competition hasn’t been top-notch so far it’s still a significant improvement over what’s been seen in Lincoln for the past decade or so.
The schedule does get tougher starting with a road game on October 19th against our number one playoff sleeper team (keep reading) along with games against Ohio State, USC, Wisconsin, and Iowa to close out the regular season. Whether Nebraska has what it takes to crash the playoff party remains to be seen but they have put themselves in a position to make some noise.
1. Indiana Hoosiers
Yes, you read that correctly. Remember the definition of a sleeper team or a surprise team is not the fashionable picks people make before the season starts but the one nobody picks and Indiana fits that bill.
First-year Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti brought with him an impressive 122-35 career record to Bloomington and in spite of the fact that Indiana has a very limited football pedigree he was talking trash and building up the program from the first day he arrived on campus.
The Hoosiers are off to a 3-0 start to the season that included last week’s 42-19 drubbing of UCLA in Pasadena. While the Bruins look to be down this year it’s still a 29-point road win for the Indiana after a cross country trip.
The schedule looks pretty manageable the rest of the way. They should easily dispatch Charlotte this week. The October 19th game against Nebraska looms large. If they can win that one and the other games they will be favored in, then a win over either Michigan or Ohio State puts them in a good position for an at-large spot in the playoff.
There you have the top five sleeper teams that have put themselves in an early position to make a run at the first 12-team college football playoff. In another two months, we’ll get our answer to the question “Who’s In”.
Main Image: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
