Most if not all of these teams are likely to make the new twelve-team playoff. However, each of these teams is going to have trouble winning the championship unless they start playing better and soon. Who’s in but not going to go far?
National Championship Pretenders
Alabama
After beating Georgia two weeks ago in a thriller that saw The Tide blow a 28-0 lead and then win it late on a long touchdown pass, Alabama was sitting pretty and quarterback Jalen Milroe was a favorite to take home the Heisman. How just a couple of weeks can change things.
After the Georgia game, Alabama headed to Nashville as a three-touchdown plus favorite against Vanderbilt. Poor defense and turnovers by Milroe cost The Tide. They fell behind early, made a big comeback but couldn’t take the lead, and couldn’t stop the Commodores when they had to and lost.
Then this past week at home as another big favorite against South Carolina they barely escaped with a 27-25 win. Everyone expected a rebound performance after the Vandy loss but it didn’t happen. Unless Milroe stops turning the ball over and unless the defense starts playing like the Alabama we’ve been used to they will probably get bounced in the quarterfinals or possibly the semifinals of the playoff.
Tennessee
Staying in the SEC, the Vols are another team that started strong but has faltered lately. After winning at Oklahoma 25-15 in a game where the defense shined all was looking good in Knoxville. Then came an encounter at Arkansas. The once explosive offense never got going and while the defense did its job, Tennessee went down to defeat 16-14.
Then this past weekend in Knoxville the Vols needed overtime to beat a struggling Florida squad 23-17. Once again the offense couldn’t sustain drives until they escaped with a Dylan Sampson touchdown in the extra session.
This was another example of a top team struggling at home against an inferior opponent after losing on the road the week before. Tennessee still looks to be in a good position to secure a playoff spot with only one loss and a close one at that. They will have to return to early season form if they have any designs on doing damage once they get in.
Miami
The ‘Canes are still unbeaten and can probably afford one loss to still get in the tournament but it’s also not a given that the ACC will get more than one team in. Head coach Mario Cristobal still hasn’t established himself at Miami and the horrific loss last year against Georgia Tech is still fresh in the minds of the fanbase. The loss was 100 percent preventable and all on him.
Last week in Berkeley, Miami was down big entering the fourth quarter and needed a miraculous comeback to walk away with a 39-38 win against a pesky Bears team. The jury is still out on the Miami defense and even though Cal has some offensive weapons the ‘Canes‘ defense should have been better.
Upcoming road contests starting this Saturday at Louisville and then later at Georgia Tech and at resurgent Syracuse could prove challenging. Two losses in those three games would be catastrophic. One loss in those three and a conference championship loss likely against Clemson would put them close to the playoff bubble. We’re confident that Miami will make the final twelve but Cam Ward alone can’t carry them too far once the playoff starts.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions are still unbeaten after a dramatic come-from-behind overtime win at USC this past Saturday. They also avoid Michigan on the schedule. Even though the Wolverines are down this year compared to their undefeated national championship last year they always give Penn State trouble.
The upcoming game against Ohio State will be difficult especially with the Buckeyes feeling desperate to avoid a second loss after the one-point setback this past Saturday in Eugenic against the Ducks. It would be a surprise to see Penn State come out victorious against Ohio State. The reason why is what matters.
Penn State’s offense looked ordinary in home wins against UCLA and Illinois. The Illini has a good defense but the Bruins absolutely do not. Putting up 33 against USC looks good but their defense still isn’t setting the world on fire even though they have improved over last season.
The Lions’ defense is the strength of the team even though they gave up 30 against the Trojans. A lot of teams do worse than that in the Coliseum. Penn State is in a strong position to make the field when it’s announced but unless the offense is more dynamic it will be an early playoff exit and disappointment for the folks in Happy Valley.
Oregon
This one might surprise some people but the Ducks are another squad that has to shore up things on the defensive end.
Yes, the Ducks did beat Ohio State this past Saturday and while it’s certainly an impressive win, playing at Eugene is difficult for everyone. It could have just as easily been a loss. Earlier this season the Ducks escaped with another close home win against Boise State 37-34. Even though Boise State is good, that’s too many points to surrender against a Mountain West team in your own stadium.
The schedule does favor Oregon the rest of the way as Dillon Gabriel and company look to have too much firepower to take a loss. However, an unexpected loss followed by a loss against Ohio State in a rematch for the BIG Ten championship puts the Ducks at risk of hitting the road for the playoff. If they can make their way to the semifinals without having to leave home they have a much better chance of going far.
There you have the list of the top five teams that are in great shape to make the inaugural twelve-team playoff but have some work to do and some things to clean up if they expect to make a run to the national championship this year. Can any of these teams do what they have to do?
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