After poor offensive performances in weeks one and two, the Jacksonville Jaguars offense looks to rebound in week three against the Buffalo Bills.
How the Jaguars Can Fix a Struggling Offense
Through two weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the Jaguars’ overall performance has been incredibly disappointing. In week one, the offense got off to a strong start but squandered a chance at beating an in-state powerhouse. Week two saw the Jaguars offense go cold for the majority of the game, with little positives throughout the whole game. Going into the second week, the matchup against the Cleveland Browns was known to be tough, but the outcome from the offense was significantly worse than expected. Through two weeks, the Jaguars’ overall performance is easily one of the ugliest ones across the NFL.
Both sides of the ball have had their fair share of struggles, with the defense being extremely inconsistent. But, there is much to be optimistic about with the defensive unit led by new Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. On the other hand, offensively the Jaguars are struggling to find their stride. It’s not all bad, however, as there are a couple of aspects of the Jaguars offense that the team can build upon as the season progresses. Before diving into what issues the Jaguars offense has, and how they can be fixed, it’s important to know what is working.
What’s Working For The Jaguars
There are two areas of the Jaguars offense that are currently working: the run game and the explosives. Compared to 2023, where the Jaguars were struggling to run the ball efficiently, the 2024 Jaguars have a much better running game. This is largely in part due to how great Travis Etienne Jr. has been, and the emergence of Tank Bigsby as a legitimate rushing threat. Both running backs complement each other well, leading to a good rushing attack. However, according to Next Gen Stats, Etienne is one of the least efficient runners in the league. There’s still meat left on the bone for the Jaguars offense, a common theme so far through two weeks of the 2024 NFL season.
For the explosives in the offense, the Jaguars have been one of the best teams at getting big chunk yardage through two weeks. Heading into their Monday night football matchup against the Bills, the Jaguars are currently tied for the lead in the NFL on completions of over 20 yards. The 66-yard reception from Brian Thomas Jr. in week two against the elite Cleveland Browns defense is a good example of how the Jaguars create explosives. It’s clear the talent is there across the board, but the Jaguars’ overall offensive output isn’t nearly where it can be. So, what is going wrong with the Jaguars?
What’s Wrong and How to Fix the Jaguars Offense
Offensively, the Jaguars have yet to find their stride in 2024. There are plenty of factors contributing, like poor play calling and penalties that can be adjusted as the season progresses. But, the Jaguars’ issues stem from two main issues; pass-blocking efficiency and passing efficiency.
Jaguars Pass Blocking
The offense for Jacksonville through two weeks has been anemic, and the root cause of it has been the offensive line. According to Ben Baldwin, the Jaguars pass protection is ranked as the 26th offensive line in the NFL. The Jaguars offensive line is also ranked 25th by PFF standards. Overall, the offensive line through two weeks is struggling to protect Trevor Lawrence. For the last few years, the Jaguars offensive line has been one of the weakest parts of the offense. With the signing of Mitch Morse in the offseason, the center position has seen significant improvement. But even Morse has had his bad moments, as he allowed a sack in the endzone for a safety against the Browns.
Brandon Scherff and Ezra Cleveland at the two guard positions have had their ups and downs, but Cleveland has been the better of the two. Out of all the offensive linemen, Cleveland has the highest PFF grade for pass blocking, while Scherff is graded over 20 points lower than Cleveland. All in all, the Jaguars can live with the offensive guard protection through two weeks, but Scherff continuing to regress could make things challenging for the Jaguars.
As opposed to the situation in 2023, the Jaguars’ offensive tackles are playing significantly worse than the interior of the offensive line. Cam Robinson has been getting beat in 2024, allowing five pressures and two sacks through just two weeks. Robinson allowed only three sacks in 2023 and only 13 total pressures. As the blindside protector for Lawrence, Robinson needs to lock down the left side of the line if the Jaguars offense wants to not only win games but compete for a playoff spot.
While Robinson and Scherff have had their struggles, the biggest issue on the offensive line through two weeks is second-year tackle Anton Harrison. In 2023, Harrison allowed 27 pressures for two quarterback hits and five sacks. Through just two games in 2024, Harrison has allowed seven pressures, four hurries, one hit, and two sacks. His week one performance wasn’t very good, but it was manageable. Harrison allowed three pressures and one hit, but no sacks. However, week two was a disaster. He allowed four pressures, two of which were sacks. It was against Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith, two great pass rushers, but the Jaguars sophomore tackle needs to play significantly better if the offense wants to see improvement.
Between the struggling offensive tackles and poorly timed mistakes from the interior of the offensive line, the frustration with the pass protection has been one of the two biggest issues for the Jaguars. Heading up to Buffalo against the Bills will once again be a challenge for the offensive line. Von Miller, Gregory Rousseau, and Ed Oliver lead a great defensive front that will give the Jaguars a lot on their plate in week three.
Whether it’s having the tight ends help pass protect, or the running backs help in the backfield, there isn’t much the Jaguars can do to help the offensive line other than having the players along the line improve their play. But, if there was something that the Jaguars could do, it would be to improve the efficiency of the passing game.
Jaguars Pass Game Efficiency
Lawrence and the Jaguars have found themselves winless through two weeks. Part of the blame falls on the coaching, and plenty of players deserve blame too. But, one of the easiest fixes for the Jaguars is to improve the offensive efficiency. Part of the lack of efficiency comes from the Jaguars’ overuse of the run game. Despite finding success in the run game, there are too many negatives that carry over to future plays with running the ball as much as the Jaguars have.
According to Ben Baldwin, the Jaguars have a negative five percent pass rate over expectation on early downs. This means the Jaguars offense is running the ball more on first downs than what would be expected. This is a common theme with most teams around the league, with only nine teams in the NFL passing the ball more than running the ball on early downs over expectation. This commitment to the run game on early downs wouldn’t be an issue for the Jaguars, as the run game has been working through two weeks. But the run game for Jacksonville is inconsistent, leading to more difficult late-down scenarios. Also, with the Jaguars being significantly more efficient at passing the ball on early downs, that’s all the more reason why the offense should be throwing the ball more.
Doug Pederson and Press Taylor need to throw the ball more, however, the style choice for the Jaguars offense isn’t working through two weeks. Ahead of only the Indianapolis Colts, the Jaguars’ completion percentage sits at 51 percent through two weeks. There are only eight other teams below 60 percent and only three below 55 percent. The Jaguars aren’t completing enough of their passes. The why is obvious; the average depth of target is the second highest in the NFL behind only Anthony Richardson. According to Next Gen Stats, Lawrence has an average intended air yardage (IAY) of 11, while Richardson is at 13.7. Those are the only two quarterbacks in the NFL over 9.6 IAY.
Richardson and the Colts have struggled two weeks into the season, and the Jaguars offense has struggled as well. While Lawrence has yet to turn the ball over as Richardson has, the downfield passing attack isn’t nearly efficient enough. Combining the downfield passes, which has been the best part of the Jaguars offense through two weeks, with more short and underneath targets could bring more life to the Jacksonville offense. Defenses are allowing teams to complete the underneath targets more than ever thanks to two-high shells becoming commonplace across the league. But, the Jaguars are still running an offense that doesn’t mesh well with that defensive scheme. Deep shots can work, and Lawrence has found success with it in his career, especially through two weeks with Brian Thomas Jr. But the offensive performance is way too inconsistent to win games and compete for the division.
A great perspective for this Jaguars’ offensive inefficiency is the comparison between the average IAY and the aggressiveness of Trevor Lawrence. Aggressiveness measures the percentage of passes thrown into tight coverage or tight windows across all passing attempts. According to Next Gen Stats, Lawrence is the least aggressive passer in the NFL, with an aggressive target percentage of 7.8 percent, while the next least aggressive quarterback, Lamar Jackson, is at 9,3 percent. Comparing the IAY to the aggressiveness percentage paints the disjointedness of the Jaguars offense. Lawrence is the only quarterback to have a lower aggressiveness percentage than his IAY.
The Jaguars’ offense features a run-early approach, with play-action deep shots down the field. Lawrence is targeting receivers down the field and isn’t aggressive while doing so. This could be a combination of the receivers down the field generating good separation on the downfield targets, but the disjointed feel of the offense is clear. Lawrence is being asked to throw the ball downfield, but he isn’t doing so into tight coverage. With how poorly the offense has moved the ball, it’s not for a lack of separation from the receivers either, with Christian Kirk, Gabriel Davis, and Thomas all among the best separators in the NFL. It’s an issue with Lawrence and a disconnect with the offensive play calls and style.
An aggressive offense, combined with a passive quarterback, makes the Jaguars’ offense an inconsistent, boom-or-bust group. With Lawrence’s lack of aggression and the deeper routes, the play calling has been designed to force Lawrence to throw the ball down the field as opposed to trusting his receivers.
How to Fix the Jaguars Offense in Week Three
It’s been a rough two weeks, but the Jaguars offense can turn things around against the undefeated Bills. The first step is for the offensive line to block a lot better, something that will pose trouble against a good defensive front. But the biggest issue is to get the offense meshing again.
To reignite the offense, the Jaguars need to incorporate a more consistent, and earlier passing attack. Passing the ball more on early downs will help the offense move the ball more efficiently, but only if the Jaguars make another change to the passing game. That change is to bring the average intended air yards closer to the line of scrimmage. With Lawrence being significantly less aggressive to making fewer mistakes, the offense has yet to find its rhythm. Fixing that issue is a lot easier said than done, but the Jaguars have the offensive personnel to do so.
Overall, the offense needs to pass the ball on early downs more. They also need to have more routes closer to the line of scrimmage as opposed to beyond the first down marker. Press Taylor needs to trust the receivers to get yards after the catch, something that Kirk, Thomas, and Davis are all capable of. Keeping the deep shots as part of the offense will work, but the offense overall needs to have a much better balance of deep shots, running plays, and short and intermediate passes. Some of the most efficient passing offenses utilize the short targets, but the Jaguars have not done so nearly enough through two weeks.
With a star-studded wide receiver room and one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, there is no excuse for the Jaguars to not be throwing the ball early and often against the Bills. It’s especially the case since the Jaguars are one of the best passing offenses on early downs according to Ben Baldwin. Combined with the great receivers in Jacksonville, the offense should be trying to get as many touches to their best players as they can. Incorporating shorter, easier passes will fit with Lawrence’s passing style, give the receivers the work they deserve, and also still keep the door open to down-the-field passes.
All in all, the Jaguars offense can fix the issues on offense through a variety of ways. Calling fewer running plays on early downs, having better protection from the offensive line, and having shallower routes. It’s an offense that’s completely uncoordinated. But the pieces are there, and the Jaguars offense has a chance to rebound with the season already potentially on the brink of collapse as the Jaguars will try and avoid a zero and three start.
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