Steakspeare's Spreads

Steakspeare’s Spreads Week 12

We had another first this past week, our first push! Since neither the Bears nor the Falcons wanted that decisive last point, we are no better and no worse than our previous week. So we went 2-2 bringing the Steakspeare’s Spreads running total to 29-25. Now for your Thanksgiving weekend edition of the spreads!

So whether you’re a turkey fan or more of a turducken connoisseur, we have just the five games for you. Just in time to prepare for your holiday shopping! Make sure you don’t spoil your appetite, this is just a taste of all the NFL action we have this weekend.

Steakspeare’s Spreads Week 12

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 vs New England Patriots

It just wouldn’t be a Thanksgiving if there wasn’t some mention of “New England” or any of the original colonies in the northeastern part of the U.S., so let’s get it out of the way early! Minnesota, last we saw them, was completely embarrassed on national television by the Dallas Cowboys…to the tune of 37 points.

This isn’t a team that will often have a game that bad, they’re just too talented on offense. Being a less-than-three-point favorite at home against a Pats team not known for scoring a lot of points almost feels like free money. Teams that get embarrassed normally come back and are more put together mentally and schematically, which is especially beneficial when playing the Pats. Take the Vikings at less than three and run like you just stole it!

Denver Broncos -2.5 @ Carolina Panthers

Broncos Country…okay, I’m not doing it anymore.

Look, they’re probably the most overhyped team of all time, but they’re so much better than the Panthers right now, who will be starting a third different quarterback in four weeks. It’s easy to focus on the negative side of the Broncos. And honestly, it’s likely warranted. However, let’s look at the positive aspects of this team.

Even in their losses, they haven’t been “out” of the game, keeping all the scores within single digits. The scores aren’t huge in their games, with an average total of just under 32 points per game total, but if you remove a 55-point outlier in the game on October 2nd, it’s actually 29 points.

Between two teams, you’re getting a possible 15-14 score on average. That means you need to bet on the better team, which is Denver. Don’t overthink this. All math aside, Denver is better than Carolina this season and that’s all that matters in this particular pick.

Los Angeles Rams +14.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs

Double-digit spreads at times give me heartburn. Why would anyone want to go through the stress that is hoping for a blowout in the NFL? The Chiefs are a great team that continually reinvents themselves and has arguably the best one-two punch in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

Let’s be clear though, this is also insulting to the defending Super Bowl champions. Being a more than two-touchdown underdog regardless of injury or personnel when you have a coach the likes of Sean McVay is a slap in the face to a franchise that has earned the right to be respectably bet with.

Points are as important as ever this year with NFL scores being down historically, pair that with a defending champ and great young head coach and you have a good bet. The Chiefs are rolling no doubt and likely win this game, but look for it to be by less than 15 points.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 vs Green Bay Packers

Oh hey, Thanksgiving isn’t the only day that has solid Primetime games. May we interest you in what may be the game of the week?

I know, the Packers have not lived up to their billing lately, but they still have the most polarizing player in the league at the helm in Aaron Rodgers and are facing an Eagles team that has shown mortality for the first time this season. In back-to-back weeks, the Eagles have: 1. Lost to the Commanders and, 2. escaped with a one-point win against the Colts. I believe this was the exact humbling they needed before a big primetime showdown against the Packers.

They’re back at home and are a touchdown favorite against a Packers team that is without stud pass rusher Rashan Gary, corner Eric Stokes, and possibly both Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell at linebacker! If you weren’t already leaning to the side of Philly, let this be the push you need. Eagles win big here at home and reclaim the NFL’s best team mantra.

Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

In what could be the most boring Primetime game that hasn’t been featured on a Thursday, The Jeff Saturday-led Colts take on a Steelers team fresh off a home L against the Bengals. They now travel to Indianapolis to take on a rejuvenated Colts team that took everything it could from the Eagles.

Say what you want about the hire of Saturday, but one thing is noticeably different about the Colts. They’re motivated now, which seemed lacking at to start. Don’t believe for a second that there isn’t a little extra motivation this week on the Colts sideline especially since it’s against the Steelers and former coach Bill Cowher had extremely harsh criticism of this move.

Look for Indy to make a statement here against the Steelers, who are pacing for their first losing season under Mike Tomlin.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone, remember to be thankful for what you have and to make sure you tune in to a great slate of NFL games this week. Let’s make a little money, shall we? Follow me on Twitter @Steakspeare and follow @LWOSports for all your favorite sports debates!

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