NBA Tiers: Ranking Teams’ Chances Of Winning A Championship In The Next Five Years

So much of the talk surrounding today’s NBA revolves around teams’ championship windows. It’s no longer about going all in on one season but instead prolonging one’s opportunity to win. While the Lakers and LeBron James’ championship window is rapidly closing, the Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards’ window is just opening. So, which NBA teams have the best and worst odds of winning a title in the next five years? 

Tiering Teams’ Chances Of Winning A Title In The Next Five Years

Tier 1: The Trophy Is Coming (2)

Boston Celtics

Their starting five—Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis—have two more years together; based on how last season went, that could mean two more championships. The financials will get tricky, but with Brown and Tatum signed for five more years, the Celtics will be contenders for a while.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren are all young and extremely talented. Throw in Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, all of their other young players, and what seems like 30 first picks, and you have a team destined for success. Sam Presti has built this team for the future and the now; they will win one soon enough.

Tier 2: They’ll Probably Get One (3)

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Karl-Anthony Towns contract is a lot of money. The Timberwolves will soon have to extend Rudy Gobert, and they already gave up all of their picks to trade for him. However, Anthony Edwards quells all of these concerns. If Edwards can continue his ascendance to one of the top players in the league, then nothing else will matter; the Timberwolves will win.

New York Knicks

Jalen Brunson‘s passing on $113 million has given the Knicks a large window to build a championship roster. They have elite and young wing defenders in Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, an all-NBA player in Julius Randle, and an MVP candidate in Jalen Brunson. If Leon Rose and the Knicks’ front office can continue to effectively manipulate the cap aprons while obtaining talent, then the streets of New York might be partying sooner rather than later.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks made it all the way to the finals last season and likely got better this offseason. Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall are fantastic additions on the fringes of their roster, and Klay Thompson will bring his elite shooting and championship pedigree. Unlike the other up-and-coming Western Conference teams that have never experienced the demands of a deep playoff run, the Mavericks know what it takes to win. Oh, and for the next five years, they will have one of the best players in the league, Luka Doncic. 

Tier 3: I Wouldn’t Be Surprised (3)

Denver Nuggets

When you have the best player in the world, you cannot be counted out. Nikola Jokic is 29 and still has several years left of elite play, and Jamal Murray is only 27. The Nuggets did suffer a disappointing defeat in the playoffs and lost a key piece in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this offseason, but great players often do great things. The Nuggets winning another one would not be surprising at all.

Philadelphia 76ers

Signing Paul George did two things: It officially made the 76ers championship contenders and officially started their clock. Philadelphia most definitely has the talent to win a championship; they have one of the best big threes in the league, including a top-seven player. However, injuries and playoff performance are big question marks. The winning has to come soon for aging stars Paul George and Joel Embiid. 

Milwaukee Bucks

It will get a little murky if the Bucks don’t win a championship next year. Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez are all on the wrong side of thirty, and the Bucks are otherwise limited on the asset front. However, similar to the Nuggets, you must believe in your great players. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a freak of nature, and the league has not yet come close to solving him. One historic playoff run ending with Antetokounmpo holding the trophy would not shock anyone.

Tier 4: Maybe In A Couple Of Years (4)

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs’ title hopes over the next few years ultimately come down to the development of Victor Wembanyama. Chris Paul should do wonders for the French phenom, as he is one of the most gifted passers in NBA history and has an incredible mind for the game. San Antonio needs time to grow, but once their young guys click, the rest of the league might be in trouble.

Orlando Magic

The Magic have accumulated an abundance of exciting young talent and have already shown they have what it takes to compete. They had a historically good defense last year and upgraded their lackluster shooting by adding elite role player Kentavious Caldwell Pope. But, as recent history has shown us, all contending teams need a superstar. If Paolo Banchero can turn into a top-ten player in the league, then the Orlando Magic might have a legitimate shot to win their first-ever championship.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are another team that has slowly built up its farm system and is now on the precipice of title contention. Jabari Smith Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Reed Sheppard—the talent is undeniable. They just have to take the next step. And that next step might mean cashing in on their picks and young players for a bonafide All-NBA player. When that happens, when they can obtain a true number one option, the Rockets will be ready to win a championship.

Memphis Grizzlies

Although it may be hard, NBA fans must separate Ja Morant’s on-the-court ability and off-the-court behavior. Too many people have forgotten how special of a player Morant is with the ball in his hands. Morant led his team to the two seed in the Western Conference two years in a row and was a borderline top-ten player in the league for a significant period. If he can return to that level and continue growing with Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies should be near the top of the Western Conference for the next half-decade.

Tier 5: If All Goes Perfectly (6)

New Orleans Pelicans

Trading for Dejounte Murray was an aggressive move that certainly makes the Pelicans better, but they still have a Brandon Ingram problem. Extending Ingram to a max contract would be a large gamble, but there seems to be no trade market for the scoring wing, putting New Orleans in a difficult position. The Pelicans should move forward building around their core of Murray, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, and Zion Williamson; adding the right center to the mix could have them competing with the other Western Conference elites.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers saw immense playoff success last season and must continue to improve their roster to keep their momentum building. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are fine top two, but to compete at the highest level, they likely need one more “guy.” Maybe that can be a Bennedict Mathurin explosion, or perhaps that means adding someone else in a trade; to win it all in the next five years, another piece is needed.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The good of the offseason for the Cavaliers was convincing Donovan Mitchell to sign an extension, which many thought was impossible. The bad was not doing anything else. Cleveland has emphasized continuity and will enter next season with the same flawed core as the previous two years. If they want to win another championship, they must change some things. Nevertheless, you could do much worse than a duo of Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley for the foreseeable future.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors aren’t in a great spot, but it’s not as bad as some say. They have young talent in Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, and Trayce Jackson-Davis; they have future picks to trade for another star; and, of course, they have Steph Curry. The odds are slim, but there is a route to getting another superstar and making one last push for a championship.

Miami Heat

The Heat are not a good team right now. They might not make the playoffs this year. But given that it is Miami, counting them out is not smart. The Jimmy Butler era seems to be ending, but as Pat Riley has shown in the past, he is quick to pivot and find a new face of “Heat Culture.” They have assets to trade, and if they let Butler walk, they will have cap space- thus, the Heat will be back soon enough.

Sacramento Kings

I almost put the Kings dead last on this list. They are paying Domantas Sabonis a lot of money for the next four years and are likely about to give De’Aaron Fox a max contract. That duo is not good enough to win an NBA championship, and honestly, it won’t come close. However, I moved them all the way up to tier five because it’s better to have two good players than not to have any. The Kings won’t win a ring next season, but in the future, they can flip DeMar DeRozan and picks into an All-NBA player, and then, they would be genuine contenders.

Tier 6: One Last Chance (3)

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are old and have limited talent outside of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Although I like what they did this offseason, signing Monte Morris and Tyus Jones, it will still be a monumental challenge for them to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. With KD getting old and Bradley Beal on a massive contract with a no-trade clause, the Suns have to win soon, or it will all fall apart. 

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have invested everything into LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They don’t have any picks or young talent, but most importantly, they’re not very good. LeBron James is still LeBron James, but his defense has rapidly declined. AD is AD, but his injuries are constant. The Lakers must win in the two years that James has left because a rebuild is required after that.

Los Angeles Clippers

Losing Paul George for nothing ends the PG-Kawhi Leonard era in the most disastrous way possible. The pairing might be one of the most disappointing in NBA history, winning only three playoff series over their five-year run. Now, the Clippers are left with 35-year-old James Harden, a Kawhi Leonard who is never healthy for the playoffs, and no future picks. However, they still reside in one of the biggest markets in the league and will have abundant cap space in 2026.

Tier 7: If The Rebuild Works (6)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are not as far off as people think. Brandon Miller showed real promise in his rookie year, and LaMelo Ball has shown all-NBA potential in the 20 games he plays per year. If they can continue to draft well and make smart fiscal decisions, the Hornets can build themselves into a competitive team in 3-4 years.

Portland Trail Blazers

Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan—the Trail Blazers have developed a promising young core that should give their fans hope for the future. Jerami Grant is signed to a massive deal for another four years, but given his proven scoring ability, it wouldn’t be shocking if another team took him off the Trail Blazers’ hands. Portland should continue to add talent slowly to its core and build to be contenders in 4-5 years.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz have many options: They can extend Lauri Markkanen and attempt to build a competitive roster around the talented big man, trade Markkanen for a haul of picks and further their rebuild, or wait a little bit longer to decide. The Jazz have no long-term contracts on their books and are basically a team of young players trying to make a name for themselves. If one player blossoms or one of their many future picks hits, the Jazz have abundant assets to quickly assemble a playoff team. 

Atlanta Hawks

That 2020 run to the Eastern Conference Finals feels like so long ago. Trae Young has not developed into the superstar that the Hawks hoped he would be, and the rest of the roster is filled with question marks. Winning the draft lottery was a great start to their retooling, but it wasn’t a franchise-changing moment in one of the worst NBA drafts of all time. Atlanta must hope that Zaccharie Risacher can help energize their stagnant team and begin their march forward.

Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors placed their bets on Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes this offseason by giving them massive contract extensions. Now, they are banking on Scottie Barnes developing into one of the best players in the league. If he doesn’t, they seem destined to be a mediocre team for the next half-decade.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have a lot riding on their French duo of Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr. Other than those two, there’s not much to love on the Wizards’ roster. Jordan Poole will take a lot of shots, Kyle Kuzma has been in trade rumors for years, and several other older guys will take minutes away from the young guys. Washington should fully embrace the youth movement and accept that to be good in five years, they must be bad right now.

Tier 8: I’m Sorry, Go Watch Football (3)

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls’ satisfaction with being okay has been their biggest flaw for years. They refused to tear things down and rebuild, yet did not assemble a team capable of going far in the playoffs. Now they are stuck with a negative asset in Zach LaVine, traded Alex Caruso for none other than Josh Giddey, and got no first-round picks back for DeMar Derozan. There is no young talent that projects to be an all-star type player, and there is no confidence in their front office to make intelligent decisions. The Bulls will be bad for a long time.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are young, have their picks, and just revamped their front office. However, when a team is this bad, it takes time. In five years, maybe the Pistons make the playoffs for the first time. Maybe Cade Cunningham will make an all-star team. But in a league that is the most competitive it has ever been, the Pistons seem further away than ever.

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are like the Pistons, but they just started their rebuild. Their roster is by far the worst in the league heading into next season, and they probably won’t win 15 games. It seems like the Nets had their one chance this decade with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but now, after that failed, they will return to their usual place as bottom dwellers in the league.

The parity of the NBA is at an all-time high, and all it takes is one offseason for a team to go from the draft lottery to the NBA finals; just look at the Dallas Mavericks. Championship windows are constantly opening and closing, making them difficult to predict, but for some teams like the Boston Celtics or the Brooklyn Nets, it’s easy to see what’s in store for their near future.

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