The Defensive Player of the Year is arguably the most prestigious NBA award after the MVP. It also seems to be one of the hardest awards to win and, therefore, predict. I’m going to attempt to give an in-depth list of candidates who could win DPOY this year. First, we break down what the past ten years of the award can tell us.
- DWS = Defensive Win Shares (How many wins are given to you because of your defense alone)
- DBPM = Defensive Box Plus/Minus (players value per 100 possessions)
- DRtg = Defensive Rating (amount of points given up per 100 possessions)
History of the DPOY: The last 10 seasons
Takeaways
- Plays at least 30 minutes a game
- Doesn’t have a massive offensive load (Outside of Giannis’ MVP year and Kawhi’s 2nd place MVP year)
- 65 games played (NBA rule)
- Playoff Team
- Top 4 Defensive Rated Team
- Minimum 3.7 DWS
- Minimum 1.7 DBPM
- Minimum 107 DRtg
- Top 15 in either steals or blocks (outlier Giannis)
- Guards need to have a career year defensively and a dip in productivity from the bigs (Marcus Smart in ’22)
- Has been placed top 10 in DPOY in the past before they won it
I then used this data and compared that with a little over thirty of the best defensive NBA players from all different positions. There are for sure players I missed on my initial gathering, but let’s be honest, they wouldn’t have made the final cut anyways. Let’s start with some easy cuts.
No History of DPOY Placement:
Good defensive players, but they haven’t been involved with DPOY and don’t really think they’ll make that big of a jump.
Superstar Load:
These players are great players, but will be required to do too much on the offensive side to be able to put in the effort and focus for DPOY.
Not a Good Defensive Team:
These players are good and great defenders. Their teams, however, are not and will drag them down for this award.
Doesn’t Play Enough:
These players don’t play enough minutes or won’t hit the 65 game requirement.
Now we are down to our last sixteen. These aren’t necessarily the best sixteen defenders in the NBA, just the sixteen that didn’t get eliminated. This is where it gets difficult. Some of these players are great defenders, but remember there is a big difference between a great defender and a Defensive Player of the Year.
Will be Let Down by Their Teams:
These three player are probably the best defenders on their teams, but their teams defensive rating probably won’t be good enough for them to be considered:
It Really Be Your Own People:
These three players are three of the best defenders in the league, but also share the team with other great defenders and will probably get cancelled out because of that:
Important Defenders, but Not It
These two are two of the most important defenders in the league for their team, but doesn’t seem like it’s enough for DPOY.
- Luguentz Dort
- Draymond Green (age hurts)
Now we are down to our last seven players. Below will be my top five picks for DPOY for the 2024-2025 season, two dark horses for the award, and then my pick. Here we go!
Victor Wembanyama
Wemby has all of the advanced stats, he should play enough games, and was even second for DPOY last year. The only concern based on the evidence we have from the previous ten years is whether the Spurs will be a playoff team and if they can be more than middle of the pack defensively as a team. The last player to win DPOY with a team defensive rating as middle of the pack was the late, great Dikembe Mutombo. I think, despite that, Victor has a chance because he is a generational talent as a defender like Mutombo. Oh, he will also have to carry the offensive load, but I think he is good enough to do that too.
Anthony Davis
AD is always there for DPOY consideration, but never wins it. The concern for him is will he play enough games, can he handle the offensive load as well, make the playoffs, and have a good defensive team. Just like Wemby, if he plays the 65 minimum games then I think he is a good enough player and a generational talent as a defender to overcome those and finally win it.
Bam Adebayo
Bam, just like AD, is always in the DPOY race, but never wins it. His defensive metrics all hit, but his tend to be a little worst than the winners. I think this is due to him not just guarding post and forward players, but guards as well. This starts to lower his metrics due to that three ball being in play. Miami is also a questionable playoff team, but they usually make it.
Evan Mobley
Mobley could be the reason Jarrett Allen isn’t considered for DPOY anymore as long as he is in Cleveland. He has not hit the minimum for DWS OR DBPM yet, but he has gotten better each year. The closest he got to the minimum was when he came in 3rd for DPOY after his rookie year. He’ll need to make that leap if he wants to win it.
Rudy Gobert
Rudy is the 4-time DPOY winner. You can’t take him out of consideration unless he is hurt or gets old. He obviously checks everything, but the Timberwolves team defense has started to take a dip. I also don’t know how much the voters will want to give Gobert another one for him to be potentially played off the floor in the playoffs again.
Now, here are my dark horses. Do I think they’ll win it this year? No. Would I be surprised? Absolutely not. Would I go around bragging about calling it if they won? You bet!
Chet Holmgren
Chet has had a great start to the year in what could be a breakout season for the big man. He has a great defensive team, should play enough games, and will be in the playoffs. The only thing? He hasn’t hit the metrics for DBPM or DRtg and wasn’t top ten in DPOY voting last year. Usually, I wouldn’t trust someone to win it the first year they make the top ten, but Chet is good enough and could take the step big enough to make it interesting. He also has the best sports betting sites in Canada drooling with Canadian point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander running a tight ship in OCK.
Jaden McDaniels
This my FAVORITE dark horse pick. McDaniels hasn’t hit any metrics for DWS, DBPM, or DRrg and would need to average a whole steal more to help, but he made a huge leap last year and showed he can guard the best players. His metrics, like Bam, will be higher because he tends to cover guards and forwards so is susceptible to the three ball, but this could be a year for a guard to sneak in there and win it. He would need to make another big leap, but man it would be fun to watch if he did.
Final Prediction
So who is my pick to win Defensive Player of the Year for the 2024-2025 season? Of course it’s Victor Wembanyama. His metrics and eye test are just too much.
So, what do you think? Agree? Disagree? Worst list ever? Best list ever? Let me know! Please be nice because this list was very difficult…
