Our MLB bests bets got off to a good start on Friday, going 2-1 and securing profit that would’ve net $120 to a bettor wagering to win $100 on each matchup. There is another full slate of MLB games on Saturday as each series continues, and while hopefully the rainy weather can hold off around the country, several MLB best bets have already been identified.
MLB Best Bets for Saturday, May 4th
MLB Best Bet #1) Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings -0.5 run (-120)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are another team who haven’t been profitable this year, so backing them in most capacities has been tough. However, they have an ideal matchup for a couple of reasons on Saturday, starting with facing Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Austin Gomber. The southpaw has had a rough start to the season, registering the 110th worst SIERA among starting pitchers with 20+ innings tossed this year at 4.70, backed by low strikeout and ground ball rates. This includes giving up multiple runs in five of his six starts, something that should continue today against the Pirates.
While their offense has been sputtering recently, this is the perfect get-right spot. Pittsburgh has been night and day when it comes to left versus right-handed splits, jumping all the way up to 14th in batting average and 11th in slugging percentage against southpaws, while being bottom five in each against right-handers. Along with this offensive edge, there is a huge difference on the mound for the Pirates, who are sending out Jared Jones for the start. The rookie has been stellar to start the year, posting the 3rd best SIERA among starting pitchers with 20+ innings behind the 6th-best strikeout rate of 31.8%. Jones gets a gem of a matchup against the Rockies, who have the third-highest strikeout rate in the MLB at 27.8%.
Pittsburgh is in a good spot with Jones on the mound and has a favorable offensive matchup against a struggling pitcher, so they should carry a lead into the second half of Saturday’s game.
MLB Best Bet #2) Chicago White Sox/St. Louis Cardinals First 5 innings under 4.5 runs (-110)
In game one of their series, the Chicago White Sox’s offensive troubles continued as they were shut out in a 3-0 loss by the St. Louis Cardinals. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the White Sox offense has been horrible, ranking just 23rd and 27th in batting average and slugging percentage in MLB over their last three series. They’ll face Cardinals starter Lance Lynn, whose advanced metrics don’t look great while sporting a 4.29 SIERA, 90th out of 130 starting pitchers with 20+ innings pitched, but he has allowed multiple runs in just two of his six starts. Lynn may have been hit around in a couple of those outings, but there is no evidence to suggest the White Sox can do that against anyone.
Chicago sends out RHP Eric Fedde, who has been excellent this season, posting a 3.17 SIERA and a 27.5 K%, coming in 24th and 26th in the MLB. Fedde should find plenty of success against the Cardinals offense, who also haven’t been great this year. St. Louis ranks just 20th and 25th in batting average and slugging percentage over the last three series and has a top-six strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. With the advantages both starters have over the opposing struggling defense, this matchup should produce minimal runs while each starter is on the bump.
MLB Best Bet #3) Baltimore Orioles Team Total over 4.5 runs (-115)
Baltimore took game one of the series 3-0 after a rain delay in Cincinnati last night pushed back first pitch, and I expect the Orioles to find even more success on Saturday in game two. They will face LHP Andrew Abbott, who has found decent results on paper 2024, but the underlying metrics don’t favor him. Despite going five-plus innings in five of his six starts and giving up more than two runs in just one, Abbot hasn’t been able to produce strikeouts or keep the ball on the ground, posting just a 20.1% strikeout rate and 32.3% ground ball rate. This combination, which has produced a 4.70 SIERA that ranks 104th of 130 starting pitchers with 20+ innings pitched, is not the one you want when facing Baltimore.
The Orioles crush southpaws, ranking 4th and 2nd in batting average and slugging percentage. Baltimore should continue their success against lefties and produce against a mediocre Cincinnati bullpen as well, so they should put up five or more runs in this contest.
Main Image: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
