With the weather starting to warm up, so is our pursuit of cashing in on our MLB best bets. It has been a mixed bag so far of results, but there are 14 more games on the MLB docket on Monday, so it’s time to dive into the matchups again and find a couple winning MLB picks.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 13th
Best Bet #1) Philadelphia Phillies money line (-120)
We are going back to the well for our first MLB best bet, taking the Philadelphia Phillies on their money line, just as we successfully did over the weekend. After winning their weekend series but not being able to complete the sweep yesterday, the Phillies head to the Big Apple to face their NL East rival, the New York Mets. Philadelphia heads to New York owning the best record in baseball at 28-13, with one reason for their success being their elite offense. Over the last two weeks, the Phillies’ offense ranks in the top-three in both batting average and slugging percentage, scoring five or more runs in nine of their last 12 games. Their offensive success has been duplicated by their pitching, with their starters and bullpen posting the 7th and 1st ranked SIERA in that span. Their opponent can’t say they have had the same success, ranking in the bottom half of most offensive categories in route to a 5-7 record their last 12 games. While their bullpen has been solid, their starting staff has posted the worst SIERA in baseball over that span, and I think Mets’ starter Sean Manaea struggles again today. Manaea ranks in the bottom-third in Stuff+ among starters with 20+ innings and ranks 131st of 146 in SIERA. The southpaw ranks in the bottom-half of pitchers in numerous categories, including expected batting average, ground ball rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate, to name a few. This is a massive concern when facing Philadelphia, who rank 7th in wRC+ against left- handed pitching, and even worse when their own lefty starter in Cristopher Sanchez has been elite, ranking in the top-third in SIERA and top-half in Stuff+ grade. With massive advantages all-around, they Phillies should bounce-back for a win on Monday.
Best Bet #2) Milwaukee Brewers team total over 4.5 runs (+115)
The Milwaukee Brewers‘ offense should be able to put up plenty of runs when hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night to open up their early week series. Milwaukee has had hot bats all year and that has stayed true to form over the last couple weeks, where they rank 9th in wRC+ behind a top-10 slugging percentage. They have been even better against right- handed pitching in 2024, ranking 2nd in both batting average and slugging, which will be on display tonight against Pirates’ starter Mitch Keller. Keller had struggled all year up until his last outing where gave up just one run while going all nine innings for the complete game, allowing 3+ runs in five of his seven starts prior. While Keller exceled in his last outing, that was against a Los Angeles Angels team that ranks in the bottom-half of most offensive categories and who were without Mike Trout, so there is reason to believe he hasn’t fully put it together just yet. Even if the Brewers aren’t able to fully take advantage of Keller’s low ground ball, hard-hit, and strikeout rates, Milwaukee will have more opportunities to score in the latter half of the matchup against a Pirates’ bullpen that ranks 27th in SIERA and 28th in xFIP over the last two weeks. With multiple avenues to scoring runs, the Brewers should be able to score 5+ runs in this game and go over their team total.
