Now that we are officially in June and summer is underway, that can only mean more MLB best bets. There are only eight games across the league tonight, but there are still several spots sticking out where we can win some bets on the diamond on Monday, June 3rd.
MLB Best Bets for Monday, June 3rd
Best Bet #1) St. Louis Cardinals/Houston Astros over 7.5 runs scored (-120)
At a quick glance, the over in tonight’s series opener between the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros may not seem like the best spot, but I believe some recent statistics and regression to the mean(s) will allow for runs. The Cardinals offense ranks in the bottom-10 in most categories for the full 2024 season, but that is not an accurate representation of the team recently. Their bats have been red-hot as of late, and the team ranks 11th in wRC+ over the last two weeks behind the 10th best slugging percentage. This still may not seem like enough when they take on starting pitcher Justin Verlander, who has been excellent this year, posting a 1.13 WHIP through eight starts. However, Verlander’s numbers seems to be flying higher than can be sustained, as his SIERA sits at 4.35 (103rd of 141 starting pitchers with 30+ innings) and xFIP at 4.58 (121st). This means that despite a good WHIP and solid ERA, his lower strikeout rate and extremely low ground ball rate indicate he is due for some regression, something a hot offense like St. Louis’ can exploit. On the other side of the matchup, the Astros offense has struggled as of late, ranking just 15th in wRC+ the past couple weeks, but some of that can be attributed to facing a plethora of left-handed pitchers that they have been slightly worse against all year. Tonight is the perfect get right spot against RHP Kyle Gibson, who ranks in the bottom-fourth in SIERA, xFIP, and Stuff+, all while producing minimal strikeouts. With the Cardinals undervalued offense ready to bring Verlander’s overproduction down a notch and the Astros bats in a good bounce-back spot against a struggling Gibson, I expect there to be 8+ runs scored in the contest.
Best Bet #2) San Diego Padres money line (-140)
With recent offensive performance, starting pitching, and bullpen advantages in the matchup, the San Diego Padres should be able to take care of business and get the win over the Los Angeles Angels on Monday night. The Padres offense started slow this year but have picked it up over their last few series, registering the 10th best wRC+ behind the second-best team batting average over that stretch. While their numbers don’t look good against southpaws, they have multiple avenues to success against Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson, who owns the 131st ranked SIERA despite having a 2.37 ERA due to his low strikeout and high walk rates. San Diego also sends out knuckleballer Matt Waldron to the bump, who should be able to continue utilize the famous pitch against a Los Angeles squad hitting for just a .218 average over the last two weeks. If the game is still close in the latter half of the contest, the Padres also have a massive bullpen edge over L.A., where their unit has posted the 3rd best xFIP over the same stretch while their opponents sit dead-last. San Deigo owns all the edges in this game and should be able to come out with the win.
Main Image: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
