The Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears in London feature two teams heading in opposite directions, trying to build off their respective momentum in week six. Coming off the Jaguars vs Colts game, where the offense met expectations and generated pressure on the defense, the Jaguars head into week six trying to grasp momentum and secure another huge victory in the 2024 season.
How Jacksonville Can Win the Jaguars and Bears London Matchup
The Jaguars, coming off their first win of 2024 when the Jaguars beat the Colts, have a chance to build upon the momentum and begin clawing their way back to a positive record. With a London matchup on tap against the Bears, the Jaguars will have a tall task. Chicago has been building their momentum, and the Jaguars have a chance to stifle it while building upon their own.
They avoided fully plunging into a downward spiral against the Buffalo Bills after the Jaguars and Bills week three matchup ended in disaster. Now that the Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts, it’s imperative to capitalize on that momentum. To secure a win and build upon their momentum, there are two keys to victory for the Jaguars in London against the Bears.
Establish The Run
Chicago has one of the better defenses in the NFL through five weeks. Pro Football Focus (PFF) has the Bears ranked third for overall defensive grade. They also ranked top ten in pass rush grade, and are second in coverage grade through five weeks. There is one area where teams have found success against the Bears, and it’s in the run game.
For Jacksonville, their running back tandem has been one of the few highlights of the season, with Travis Etienne Jr. continuing to be a solid running back. At the same time, Tank Bigsby has emerged as a legitimate backup that’s been deserving more work in recent weeks. From the Jaguars week one analysis, where Bigsby got off to a strong start against the Miami Dolphins, to Jaguars and Texans week four where he had a huge run to set up a huge scoring opportunity against the Houston Texans, Bigsby has been getting great work in the run game. His breakout campaign exploded when the Jaguars beat the Colts, as Bigsby had 13 rushing attempts for 101 yards, and two rushing touchdowns. Not only his best game of 2024 but his best game as a Jaguars by far.
With Etienne banged up, and dealing with a shoulder issue, Bigsby is expected to have a significant role once again in week six. There is a good setup for Bigsby against the Bears. According to Jacob Gibbs on Twitter/X, Bigsby has run the ball on man or gap concepts on 68 percent of his attempts in 2024. The Bears have been allowing success on those run plays, with the Bears giving up 5.7 yards per carry and a 54 percent success rate. For zone running plays, the Bears give up 4.2 yards per carry on a 43 percent success rate. With Bigsby finding success in man runs, and the Bears giving up over five yards per carry on those runs, there is a huge opportunity for Bigsby to get home against the Bears.
While the offense in the passing game may struggle against an elite Bears defense, the Jaguars running back duo, especially Bigsby, have a chance to establish a successful ground game overseas. The Jaguars have one of the best run games in the NFL, and with Bigsby and Etienne working together, the Jaguars can beat the Bears with a strong ground game.
Contain Caleb and The Bears
The rookie quarterbacks have taken the NFL by storm in 2024, with Jayden Daniels leading one of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen from anyone, let alone a rookie. Caleb Williams has been more of an afterthought despite being the first overall pick, but he has been getting better and better every single week. Williams is also joined in being overlooked by fellow rookie Rome Odunze. Odunze has yet to have a consistent streak of great performances, but he is more than capable of gashing a defense. With DJ Moore and Keenan Allen rounding out a wide receiver room, the Bears offense will be tough to stop.
Jacksonville will have their hands full with the Bears receivers, not including Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift who pose dynamic threats out of the backfield and tight end. The offense is well-rounded, and the pass blocking in Chicago has improved over the last few weeks. It’s been a slow start for the Bears, but with Chicago heating the Jaguars’ defense will have a tough time containing them.
The Bears have had up and down passing season, with Williams having below 200 yards three times, and over 300 yards twice. It’s a boom-or-bust passing offense, and the Jaguars’ porous passing defense makes for a high-volume passing opportunity for the Bears. Williams and the Bears are coming off a week five throttling of the Carolina Panthers, where he threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns. Jacksonville’s passing defense has played worse than the Panthers through five weeks, so Williams has a chance to have a massive day in London.
On defense for Jacksonville, there have been a lot of concerns with both the pass rush and the pass defense. That’s also not to say the run defense has been great, as it’s only been middle of the pack according to PFF. In the passing game, Jacksonville has allowed 1,518 yards through the air, second most in the NFL, and ten passing touchdowns, most in the NFL. A porous Jaguars pass defense isn’t getting healthy just yet, as Tyson Campbell and Foyesade Oluokun are still a game or two away from returning. Montaric Brown and Ronald Darby get the start at corner and will draw the tough matchup of facing Moore and Odunze, while Jarrian Jones pulls Allen in the slot.
One way to help the struggling secondary is to generate pressure. With the Bears’ offensive line being ranked 15th in pass protection composite rankings according to Computer Cowboy on Twitter/X, the Jaguars have a roughly even playing field. The Bears’ offensive line was one of the reasons for their slow start, but they have stabilized over the past few weeks. Generating pressure is going to be a huge factor in this game, and with the Bears offensive line playing better the Jaguars defensive linemen will have a tough task ahead of them.
Fortunately for Jacksonville, the defensive line has begun to come alive in 2024. Arik Armstead is the lone disappointment, but as he continues to get familiar with the defense and cement himself along the line, his play will only improve. The two important pieces are star outside linebacker Josh Hines-Allen and Jaguars breakout candidate Travon Walker. The pass-rushing duo off the edge can make the difference, and with the Bears’ offensive tackles being the weakest link along the line, the Jaguars have a good matchup to generate pressure.
Final Outlook and Predictions
With the Jaguars offense finally clicking, and the defensive line beginning to find itself, there is plenty to like about the Jaguars against the Bears. The biggest issue will be if the Jaguars’ defense can slow down the Bears’ offense to match the Jaguars’ offense. So far, the Jaguars offense has struggled to be consistent in both the run and pass game. It will be more of the same against a tough Bears defense. A key to the Jaguars’ success offensively is the establish the run with Bigsby and Etienne, as the Bears’ defense is weakest in the run game.
The key to victory for the Jaguars’ defense is to generate pressure with their star edge rushers and contain the Bears’ dynamic wide receiver room. One of the biggest concerns with that matchup is how the Jaguars run man coverage amongst the highest in the NFL, and the Bears wide receivers succeed against man often. Odunze is not only one of the best rookies against man coverage but one of the best receivers against man coverage across the NFL. It’s an explosion spot for the Bears offense with how much the Jaguars have struggled defensively, and if no pressure is generated for Jacksonville it’s going to be a long day for the Jaguars defense.
The Jaguars are capable of putting together a strong fight no matter the opponent. However, they are dealing with injuries to key areas of the defense, and despite getting some insurance in Evan Engram returning to the offense, it’s a matchup against one of the best defenses in the NFL through five weeks. It’s going to be an uphill battle for Jacksonville, but the Jaguars have a chance to bring themselves back into the 2024 season and playoff field.
Main Image: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
