The Atlanta Falcons‘ season has been a disaster through two weeks. An 0-2 start, fueled by poor quarterback play from Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, has Atlanta desperate for a bounce-back win Thursday night in prime time in Green Bay.
Fortunately, help is on the way. Third-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was named the starter Monday following the Falcons’ 34-3 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Penix will make his long-awaited return after suffering a season-ending ACL tear in Week 11 last season.
With Penix back under center, the Falcons have a fighting chance to turn things around. Here are three keys to an Atlanta victory in Week 3.
Falcons 3 Keys To Victory
1. Michael Penix Jr. Needs To Deliver in His Return
A lot is riding on Penix Jr. stepping seamlessly into Kevin Stefanski’s offense. Through two games, Atlanta’s offense has been a disaster. Much of that can be attributed to poor quarterback play, but if the Falcons are going to win in Week 3, the offense needs to take a significant leap with Penix under center.
In Penix’s 12 career starts, the Falcons have averaged nearly 360 yards of offense per game. Without him to open this season, that number has dropped to just over 280 yards per game.
Penix should also help Atlanta take better care of the football. Atlanta has turned the ball over on 28% of its drives through two games, compared with 7% of its drives with Penix under center. Stefanski has preached the importance of winning the turnover battle, and protecting the football has been one of Penix’s strengths. Through 12 career starts, he has posted just a 1.6% interception rate.
His connection with No. 1 receiver Drake London has also been dynamic. In 12 games together, London has recorded 79 receptions for 1,162 yards and eight touchdowns.
The Falcons need Penix to elevate the offense, protect the football and rekindle his connection with London to find success Thursday night in Green Bay.
2. Falcons Secondary Needs to Step Up Without A.J. Terrell
AJ Terrell Jr. was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with a groin injury, a significant loss for an Atlanta secondary preparing to face a red-hot Packers receiving corps. C.J. Henderson stepped into Terrell’s role against Carolina, allowing five catches on seven targets for 45 yards and two touchdowns.
Green Bay’s receivers have started the season hot. Christian Watson has 10 catches for 188 yards and three touchdowns, while 2025 first-round pick Matthew Golden has added 10 receptions for 153 yards.
Fortunately for Atlanta, Billy Bowman Jr. is expected to return from the Achilles injury that ended his rookie season. Bowman flashed in six games last year, recording 1.5 sacks, an interception, a forced fumble and a tackle for loss. He played more than 85% of his snaps in the slot and allowed a 76.0 passer rating when targeted.
Atlanta has primarily deployed Terrell’s younger brother, second-round pick Avieon Terrell, on the outside, where he has quickly impressed. The rookie ranks 14th among qualifying cornerbacks with a 73.6 PFF grade. In 46 coverage snaps, he has allowed just three receptions and a 50.3 passer rating when targeted.
With his older brother sidelined, Avieon could play a major role against Green Bay. Atlanta’s young defensive backs, along with veterans Mike Hughes and Henderson, will need to hold up in coverage and lean on the stability provided by safeties Jessie Bates III and Xavier Watts.
3. Atlanta’s Pass Rush Needs to Exploit a Depleted Packers Offensive Line
The Falcons’ 0-2 start doesn’t tell the entire story. Atlanta’s defense has played well through two weeks, ranking ninth in defensive EPA per play. Its 36.9% defensive success rate allowed also ranks in the 90th percentile.
Atlanta has also generated pressure on nearly 41% of opposing dropbacks, 11th in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Even more impressive, the Falcons have generated pressure on more than 43% of dropbacks without blitzing. Newly acquired Za’Darius Smith has led the charge with eight pressures on 34 pass-rush snaps, including three sacks and five hurries. His 23.5% pressure rate has helped him earn a 74.5 PFF grade, 20th among qualifying edge defenders.
That pass rush now draws a favorable matchup against a depleted Green Bay offensive line. Zach Bako-Bewele suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, while guard Aaron Banks is questionable with knee and toe injuries that kept him out of Tuesday’s practice. With it being a short week, Banks’ status is worth monitoring leading up to kickoff.
Green Bay’s offensive line already looks much different from last season. Elgton Jenkins was traded to the Cleveland Browns, while Rasheed Walker departed in free agency for the Carolina Panthers. Jordan Morgan replaced Walker at left tackle and has struggled through two games, earning a 48.5 PFF grade.
Now without Bako-Bewele and potentially Banks, Green Bay could be vulnerable up front. For Atlanta, consistently getting into the backfield and disrupting Jordan Love will be pivotal to earning its first win of the season.
Despite entering Thursday night as 6.5-point underdogs, Atlanta has a legitimate opportunity to keep this game close and potentially pull off the upset based on what Green Bay has shown through two weeks.
For that to happen, Penix will need to provide an immediate spark, the secondary must respond without A.J. Terrell, and Atlanta’s pass rush has to take advantage of a depleted Packers offensive line.
Offensively, Atlanta has been nearly nonexistent through two weeks, but the talent is there for a significant turnaround with a healthy Penix under center. Pair an improved offense with a defense that has continued to keep Atlanta competitive under Jeff Ulbrich, and there is a clear path to the first win of the season.
The turnaround has to start now.
Main Image: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
