Another Tuesday is upon us, which means we get to take advantage of FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion for our best bets. As a reminder, this promotion includes placing a $25+ bet on a player “To Hit a Home Run” and getting $5 back for every home run hit in the game by either team up to $25. There are plenty of factors that go into making predictions on who will hit a home run, but by studying each of those, we can make some best bets.
Dinger Tuesday: Preview and Best Bets
Best Bet #1) Josh Naylor (+420)
For our first bet, I am taking Cleveland Indians slugger Josh Naylor. Naylor has been excellent this year, hitting over .250 and already launching 12 home runs. He gets a stellar matchup today with right-hander Adrian Houser, who has the 147th-ranked WHIP of 151 starters with 20+ innings pitched. Houser also mainly utilizes two pitchers against left-handed hitters, his sinker (40%) and 4-seam fastball (20%), both of which Naylor excels in hitting, registering six of his nine home runs against RHP against the two pitches. While Houser’s control issues could lead to walks, it also means he will have to rely heavily on the fastball while behind in the count, which Naylor has mashed, being five of the aforementioned home runs.
Best Bet #2) Kyle Schwarber (+280)
It is kind of shooting fish in a barrel between him and Bryce Harper, but I have more confidence in Kyle Harper going yard today. He has a monstrous 41.2% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season and a 57.4% fly ball rate, something that helps at a home run-friendly ballpark like Citizens Bank Park. While Harper shares a lot of of hard hit rates attributes, what really sold me was Schwarber’s last two seasons of results against 4-seam fastballs, which Rangers’ starter Jon Gray throws 43.2% of the time to lefties. Since the beginning of last year, he has had the most home runs against 4-seam fastballs (23) and tied for 2nd most vs RHP (15).
Best Bet #3) William Contreras (+560)
William Contreras has been elite this year and is an NL MVP candidate, and I think he can show that off with a dinger on Tuesday night. He smashed LHP in 2023, hitting 10 home runs in just 177 plate appearances, so I am not worried about his higher ground ball and strikeout rates in a small 38 PA sample set in 2024. The southpaw he faces in Trevor Rogers has struggled this year, posting a 1.76 WHIP, and has allowed just 8.7% soft contact rate to right-handed batters while also not producing high whiff or strikeout rates. With a great matchup and being due for a home run after hitting two 350+ foot fly balls yesterday, backing Contreras here at a great number is a best bet.
Best Bet #4) Juan Soto (+320)
It’s tough to take a different guy to hit a home run in a game that features Aaron Judge, but I think Soto is a better play for the value. Soto is an all-around star, hitting for power and contact, great at getting on base, and elite in the field. Why he has a good chance to go yard today is due to his matchup with Bryan Woo and his fastball. Woo is using a 4-seam fastball on almost 58% of his pitches to left-handed batters, and Soto is crushing those from right-handers, hitting five of his nine home runs vs RHP on 4-seam fastballs. Woo has had a slight control problem, which is something that worries me against Soto and his incredible eye, but Soto has a good chance to square one up and over the fence in good conditions today.
Best Bet #5) Carlos Correa (+390)
While our nation’s capital doesn’t have the best ballpark for home runs, Carlos Correa has an opportunity to hit a dinger in back-to-back games beginning Tuesday night. Correa has crushed LHP over his career, registering a 137 wRC+, and this year he has a 45.5% fly ball rate against southpaws, something that should help with the wind slightly blowing out in D.C. He faces LHP Patrick Corbin, who hasn’t been good in any area besides being an inning eater, registering a 5.59 ERA. While Corbin has been decent at getting ground balls, Correa’s high fly ball rate and career of success against lefties make him a strong candidate to hit a home run tonight.
Main Image: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
