In most seasons each league’s MVP race is one of the most compelling storylines of the season. This was especially true in the American League at the start of this year with the reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani now in the National League and perennial MVP candidate Juan Soto playing in pinstripes for the first time. However, it didn’t take long for the race to appear settled as Aaron Judge went on a historic tear, distancing himself from the rest of the league and carrying the New York Yankees in the process.
While Soto has also had a monster season and will certainly garner consideration for the award another name has slowly crept into the race in the second half and with more than just his bat. Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr has established himself as the superstar everyone thought he’d be. His stellar defense, elite speed, and potent bat combine for a complete player that rivals Judge’s pure production and are the basis of Witt Jr’s MVP case.
The Case For Bobby Witt Over Aaron Judge
Witt Has Been Just As Valuable Overall
When looking at pure offense it’s obvious that Judge is the superior player, his 217 wRC+ is by far the best mark in a single season in the last 20 years. While Witt’s 171 wRC+ would still be MVP caliber in most seasons, this is not most seasons. Witt makes up that offensive gap by being a premium defender at a premium position while also being one of the game’s best baserunners. The second overall pick is seventh in the league in Outs Above Average (second among shortstops) with 15 and is first in baseball in defensive runs (Def) with 16.2, more than a full run better than second place. Judge, while competently playing the premium position of center field, grades out significantly below average in both metrics.
While all of the 24-year-old Royal’s tools are impressive, perhaps his greatest is his speed. He is the fastest man in baseball clocking in at 30.4 feet per second and has the instincts to make the most of it. He ranks third in baseball in runner runs and has swiped 25 bags while Judge possesses 35th percentile speed and ranks 200th in runner runs. Judge, as a pure offensive force from the outfield, has accumulated an fWAR of 8.3 entirely with his bat while Witt has put up 8.2 fWAR by combining his unique skills to become probably the most complete player in baseball. Looking at the totality of their production statistically it’s very tough to distinguish between the two despite getting there so differently.
Despite A Different Approach, He’s Still An Elite Hitter
It’s obviously impossible to say Witt is a better hitter than the 30-year-old Yankee slugger but he’s probably better than you think. His aforementioned 171 wRC+ doesn’t fully describe how unique of a hitter Witt is. As of this writing, he is running away with the batting title, hitting a stellar .349, 18 points ahead of second-place Judge. As well, the two Yankee superstars are the only players in MLB with a higher OPS than Witt and the only other players with an OPS over 1.000.
As well, Witt is much more a free swinger than Judge and he very rarely strikes out. His 15.4% strikeout rate puts him in the 85th percentile but is exchanged for a much lower walk rate hovering around six percent. The opposite of what Judge does which is largely based on the three true outcomes. Witt and Judge also have almost the same number of extra-base hits, 70 to 68 for number 99 but Witt is second in baseball in triples with 11 and third in doubles with 33. While he doesn’t have the light-tower power of his Yankee counterpart he still hits the ball hard and takes extra bases. All of this is essentially the opposite of Judge’s offensive profile as many of his plate appearances end in one of the three true outcomes.
The Royals’ Playoff Hopes Rest With Witt
There’s no question that Judge is very important to the Yankees, all MVP candidates are. Judge is especially important considering the Yankees’ lineup, one that lacked depth to begin with and has been riddled with injuries all season, but that doesn’t compare to Witt’s importance to the Royals. Kansas City currently sits in the final Wild Card spot with a precarious 1.5-game lead over the Boston Red Sox and six games back of the Cleveland Guardians in third place in the very good AL Central. If they hold onto their playoff spot this would be their first postseason appearance since winning the 2015 World Series, the third-longest drought in the majors.
This is a very young Royals team getting their first taste of playoff relevancy and they have a chance to be the surprise team of 2024 just by making the Wild Card round. Outside of all-star catcher and captain Salvador Perez, there isn’t another position player on this roster with the ability to carry an offense. If Witt were to get hurt or go into a major slump that would essentially be the end of the Royals season, unlike Judge, Witt’s performance is the difference between the Royals making or missing the postseason for the ninth straight season.
Aaron Judge is the heavy favorite to win the AL MVP and is probably the best player in baseball but Bobby Witt has established himself as a force of his own, and regardless of the results of MVP voting is certainly one of the best and most complete players in baseball. While he lacks the offensive production and star power of Judge and Soto, his value fits right in with them at the pinnacle of the American League.
Main Image: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
