The AP Poll was released Sunday afternoon and, as in Week 8, it saw many changes, including a new No. 2 team for the third consecutive week. In a week that saw seven ranked teams in back-to-back weeks, the highlight came from Los Angeles, California, as then-No.2 Ohio State was upset by unranked USC, 30-18. It’s the fourth consecutive week that six or more ranked teams have lost, as the selection committee prepares to release its first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, then-No. 3 Georgia blew out then-No. 17 Florida 27-8 to tie Kentucky for first place in the SEC. Other notable upsets in Week 9 included then-No. 19 SMU, then-No. 20 Northwestern, and then-No. 24 Oklahoma State, all of which lost to unranked teams. Ahead of Tuesday’s selection committee rankings, some teams are in a great position to land in the first Playoff bracket, while others have hurt their chances of inclusion. Here are my biggest takeaways from the Week 9 AP Poll.
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Week 9 AP Poll Reaction
1. Ohio State’s Playoff Chances In Jeopardy After Upset Loss To USC
Ohio State looked like the favorites to win the Big Ten after beating Indiana two weeks ago. It appeared on track to make the Big Ten Championship game heading into its bye week. Despite losing quarterback Julian Sayin for the foreseeable future, the Buckeyes were expected to overcome his absence because of their roster talent. Now, their College Football Playoff hopes are in jeopardy after suffering an upset loss to USC.
The Ohio State Buckeyes entered this week with plenty of questions on how the offense would look without Sayin. After a quarterback competition between Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, Fahey got the start; despite filling in well in Sayin’s absence, the offense wasn’t clinical. The Buckeyes scored only one touchdown in their 18 points and failed to score a touchdown in the first half. They struggled to execute in the red zone, failing to score a touchdown on three of four red zone trips. The Buckeyes didn’t score a touchdown for 57 minutes. Despite outgaining USC by 126 yards, Ohio State couldn’t finish drives, allowing the Trojans to stay in the game.
However, this wasn’t the biggest reason the Buckeyes lost, as their defense had its worst performance of the season. Their defense, which allowed 13.4 points per game heading into this game, gave up 30 points against a USC offense that struggled last week. The unit gave up too many big plays as the Trojans had three plays of 36+ yards, something Ohio State hadn’t given up before this game. These plays were game-changing: USC scored a 69-yard touchdown and set up another with a 70-yard reception by Mark Bowman.
Because of this loss, Ohio State fell from No. 2 to No.11 in this week’s AP Poll, now with two losses and four games left. This is the earliest it has lost two games in a season since 2011, and things won’t get easier for the Buckeyes. They will face teams with three or fewer losses and do it without Sayin, who is expected to miss the rest of the season. Ohio State has no margin for error after this loss, and now, with Sayin out and the team struggling, their playoff hopes are in danger.
2. Miami-Notre Dame Winner Will Clinch A Spot In The College Football Playoff
Miami and Notre Dame took care of business this week, setting up a huge showdown next week, with the winner most likely clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Despite remaining the No. 1 team in the country in this week’s AP Poll, the Miami Hurricanes survived an upset scare from the North Carolina Tar Heels, beating them by three points. Miami trailed by four points twice in the second half against North Carolina as the Tar Heels went toe-to-toe with the nation’s top team. Its defense struggled, giving up 35 points to a North Carolina team that was among the worst in the ACC, and allowed 407 yards, with 341 coming through the air. However, the offense bailed them out: offensive playmakers Mark Fletcher Jr. and Malachi Toney combined for four touchdowns, while quarterback Darian Mensah threw for three touchdowns on 274 yards.
Notre Dame rebounded from a slow start against Navy, holding the Midshipmen scoreless in the second half to win 35-13. The Fighting Irish trailed 13-7 in the second quarter before scoring 28 unanswered points as the offense generated 426 yards. Quarterback CJ Carr threw two touchdowns on 210 yards, and running back Nolan James Jr. ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries. Despite not forcing any turnovers, the defense held Navy to 245 yards and fewer than 35 passing yards as Notre Dame moved up to No.4 in this week’s AP Poll.
Now, this game sets up a pivotal top-4 showdown with implications for the College Football Playoff. For Miami, a win will keep it No. 1 in the country and should give it enough on its resume to clinch a Playoff spot, barring a collapse. For Notre Dame, it puts them in a prime position to clinch a Playoff spot, as they have no more ranked opponents to play after this game. The stakes couldn’t be higher in next week’s showdown, and it will have a huge impact on the College Football Playoff picture.
3. Boise State Makes Case As The Best Group of 6 Team
Ahead of the selection committee rankings, questions remained about who would be the 12th seed and best Group of 6 team, given how the season has gone. Now, after Week 9’s action, Boise State looks like the best Group of 6 team in the first College Football Playoff bracket.
The Boise State Broncos survived an upset scare from the Texas State Bobcats, almost blowing a 25-point halftime lead to win by one point. Boise State looked on track for a comfortable victory, leading 28-3 at halftime and dominating Texas State on both sides of the ball. However, the Bobcats scored 36 unanswered points to take an 11-point lead with less than eight minutes left, and the Broncos failed to score on six consecutive drives. In the end, Boise State avoided the upset by scoring three consecutive touchdowns after trailing, then forcing a turnover on downs on Texas State’s offense.
With this win, the Broncos enter the first College Football Playoff rankings as the best Group of 6 team, ranked No. 20 in this week’s AP Poll. They remain on track to win the Pac-12, sitting in first place a game ahead of Oregon State. Even though Boise State still has to play Oregon State, its path to the Playoff is set: it has no more ranked opponents to beat and the best resume of the Group of 6 teams. However, they have to win games more convincingly, or the committee might give the No. 12 seed to New Mexico State, the second-best Group of 6 team after being ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll.
The Last Word
This is the last AP Poll that will have significant meaning as the selection committee is set to take over the rankings on Tuesday. However, this week’s AP Poll sets the stage for what we could see in the first College Football Playoff rankings, as every team in this week’s AP Poll has every reason to believe it will be ranked on Tuesday.
Despite this, we have seen the committee disagree with the AP Poll in the past. It wouldn’t be a surprise if that happens again on Tuesday, as the committee will consider many factors not just from this week’s action, but the overall College Football season, when making the first Playoff bracket. Tuesday will be a huge day for all FBS teams as they will learn their path to making the Playoff as we near the end of the regular season.
Some factors worth watching in Tuesday’s first Playoff rankings include whether the committee will punish Ohio State as much as the AP Poll did this week. Another one will be whether they agree that some teams like Utah and UCLA deserve to be ranked as high as they were in this week’s AP Poll, as they were ranked No.3 and No. 5. Overall, Tuesday’s Playoff rankings are certainly a must-watch, especially with so many heavyweight showdowns in Week 10.
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