Two weeks remain before the second half of the 2026 NFL season begins. After seven weeks of action, half of the league has a winning record: nine in the AFC and seven in the NFC. At this point in the season, a winning record gives you a better chance of making the NFL Playoffs than a losing record.
However, some of these teams still have a good chance of missing the playoffs despite their winning records. With only 14 teams making the NFL Playoffs, there’s little room for error as conference races tighten and teams with losing records try to turn their seasons around. In the past, fast starts haven’t guaranteed playoff berths, and last year’s Indianapolis Colts are the perfect example.
The Colts got off to an 8-2 start and looked like a lock for the playoffs, but they lost their final seven games, finishing 8-9 and missing the NFL Playoffs. Their late-season collapse reminds us that teams with winning records must maintain momentum to secure a playoff spot, especially with plenty of football still to play. Without further ado, let’s look at the winning-record teams most likely to miss the NFL playoffs.
Winning-Record Teams Most Likely to Miss NFL Playoffs
1. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns have been one of the NFL’s biggest surprises this season, leading the AFC North at 5-2 despite expectations that they’d be one of the worst teams. However, this strong start won’t be enough to make the NFL Playoffs because their division and the AFC conference are so crowded.
Although the Browns have won five of their first seven games, their record may be misleading because of the opponents they have faced. Cleveland has faced only three teams with a winning record and is 2-1. Both wins came at home, one against the Ravens, who were playing with their backup quarterback, and against an inconsistent Pittsburgh Steelers team. They lost their only game to a winning-record team on the road in Week 1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars, where they looked lifeless on both sides of the ball against a fully healthy opponent.
They also lost to a struggling Jets team, while their remaining wins came against opponents with a combined record of 6-14. The Browns also didn’t win those games convincingly, needing game-winning drives from quarterback Deshaun Watson in all five wins, with a combined margin of 16 points. Despite a defense that has allowed 18.7 points since its Week 1 loss, Cleveland will need to play better; its offense averages 19 points per game, the fifth-worst in the NFL, has allowed the most sacks with 25, and the team is the second-most penalized in the league, with 55 penalties.
First-year head coach Todd Monken deserves a lot of credit for overachieving with this team already. However, with all four AFC North teams holding winning records, the Browns face an uphill battle not only to stay atop their division but also to make the NFL Playoffs. Their remaining schedule gets tougher as they face four teams with winning records, including the Cincinnati Bengals twice, and teams that are more offensively talented despite their losing records. Cleveland has been a good story through the first seven weeks, but its close wins and limited offensive production raise doubts about whether it can sustain this success, starting this week with a road matchup against the Steelers.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have been one of the NFC’s most consistent teams since 2022, making the NFL Playoffs in the past three seasons. However, their playoff streak is in jeopardy this season despite their current winning record, as they have concerning issues that they didn’t have in past seasons.
After a 1-2 start, the Packers won three straight games to get themselves back on track for the NFL Playoffs. However, they lost to the Detroit Lions last week despite referee controversy, which damaged not only their NFC North hopes but also their playoff hopes. As a result, Green Bay is last in its division, with everyone else having a winning record, and it lost critical tiebreakers in both the division and wild card race. It has three conference losses, tied for the second-most in the NFC, and two of them being divisional, which could be costly if the NFC playoff race stays tight down the stretch.
On top of their tiebreaker problems, their schedule doesn’t get easier from here, as the Packers have the eighth-hardest remaining schedule. They face five teams with winning records, including dangerous losing-record teams like the Los Angeles Rams. Green Bay will need to improve in many areas ahead of this tough stretch: it is the league’s most-penalized team, has one of the worst running games despite the return of Josh Jacobs, and is injury-riddled.
The Packers must improve their discipline, as they are the league’s most penalized team, with 65 penalties and 546 penalty yards. Their running game is the worst in the NFL, averaging 59.9 yards per game, which has forced quarterback Jordan Love to throw the ball a lot. On top of that, they have to overcome injuries to key players like linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who is out for the season with a torn Achilles. With mounting injuries, persistent offensive struggles, and a tough remaining schedule, Green Bay has little room for error if it hopes to extend its playoff streak.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
After looking like one of the worst offenses in the NFL through the first two weeks, the Steelers have turned things around, winning four of their next five games to reach a 5-2 record and tie with the Browns for first in the AFC North. Despite this, the Steelers still have issues that could cost them a berth in the NFL Playoffs, their first miss since 2022.
The Steelers have struggled with consistency, failing to put together complete performances on both sides of the ball. Their defense, led by T.J. Watt, is tied for the fifth-most takeaways with 11, allows the sixth-fewest yards with 303.7, and gives up 19.7 points per game, the fifth-fewest. However, the offense hasn’t matched the defense, scoring 21.9 points and 323.7 yards per game, which is middle of the pack. They haven’t had a convincing win or performance this season where both the offense and the defense play up to their standard.
This team’s routine is inconsistency: one week the defense plays well, but the offense doesn’t, and the other way around. Aside from their win over the Bengals, Pittsburgh hasn’t had a convincing win this season, as all their wins have come against teams with losing records. They barely beat a poor Buccaneers team playing with a backup quarterback in overtime two weeks ago, and last week they struggled to find any offensive rhythm against one of the NFL’s worst defenses, scoring only 16 points. On top of that, their special teams are among the league’s worst.
Last season, the Steelers won a poor AFC North division with a 10-7 record, but this season the division is much more competitive, with everyone currently having a winning record. Despite having the 13th-hardest remaining schedule, the crowded AFC playoff race leaves little margin for error to make the NFL Playoffs. They currently sit sixth in the wild-card standings, just one game ahead of the eighth-place New England Patriots. With inconsistency across all three phases and many teams vying for a spot in the NFL Playoffs, the Steelers may struggle to secure one for the NFL Playoffs.
4. New York Giants
The New York Giants have been the best team in a weak NFC East division, as they are currently the only team with a winning record at 4-2-1. However, with starting quarterback Jaxson Dart sidelined since Week 2 and out for the season, the Giants face an uphill battle to maintain their momentum and secure a spot in the NFL Playoffs without him.
First-year head coach John Harbaugh deserves credit for keeping his team in the NFL Playoffs conversation after losing Dart to a season-ending injury in Week 2. However, this team isn’t as good as its record suggests because it has benefited from an easy schedule. Since losing Dart in Week 2, New York is 3-1-1 without him, beating the Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, and Houston Texans, who have a combined record of 5-16. Their tie against the Washington Commanders came from an overtime gaffe by Jayden Daniels that cost his team a chance at a game-winning field goal.
The trade for J.J. McCarthy has brought stability to this team, as he nearly led the Giants to a comeback win over the New Orleans Saints after they trailed 34-10 in the fourth quarter. That performance earned him his first start last week against the Texans, where he threw for 252 yards without a touchdown. However, turnovers remain a concern for New York, which has a -2 turnover differential, giving the ball away 11 times while recording just nine takeaways.
Their defense has helped keep the team afloat, as it has been one of the best passing defenses in the league, allowing 184.9 yards per game, the third-least in the NFL. However, their division rival, the Dallas Cowboys, have strong potential to go on a run, with the fourth-easiest schedule and only 1.5 games behind the Giants, who are tied for the 14th-hardest remaining schedule after their bye week. With a more challenging schedule ahead and questions about the offense without Dart, the Giants could struggle to hold onto their division lead and secure a spot in the NFL Playoffs.
Main Image: David Reginek-Imagn Images
