It is Week 4 of the college football season, and we have already seen seven instances of a lower-ranked or unranked team defeating a higher-ranked team. Of those seven upsets, only two were favorites heading into the game.
The first came in Week 2, when then-No. 4 Texas, a 2.5-point favorite, overcame a 20-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat then-No. 1 Ohio State. The other came last week, when then-No. 23 Louisville, a three-point favorite, defeated then-No. 16 SMU in a 72-point shootout. Now, oddsmakers say we’ll see four more of those upsets in this week’s slate.
Ahead of Week 4, four higher-ranked teams are underdogs. This list includes No. 4 Ole Miss, No. 12 USC, No. 17 Iowa, and No. 19 Missouri. With these four ranked teams entering the week as underdogs, we could see a big shake-up in Sunday’s AP Poll if they all lose. So, let’s look at each matchup and rank them from most to least likely to avoid falling to the lower-ranked team.
Week 4’s Ranked Underdogs: Who Has the Best Chance to Win?
1. No. 4 Ole Miss
According to DraftKings, Ole Miss is a 3.5-point road underdog against No. 21 Florida, which puzzles me.
This spread is surprising, given that Ole Miss is coming off its biggest win of the season over LSU last week and has proven to be one of the best teams in the country. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has shown throughout his career that he is not deterred by pressure, and he has consistently performed well in these situations. Along with that, Ole Miss has a lot of talent and veteran experience, which makes me believe that the Rebels have more overall talent than Florida.
Florida has been impressive in the first year of its new head coach, Jon Sumrall, starting the season 3-0 and climbing from unranked to No. 21. A big reason for their current success has been running back Jadan Baugh, who has rushed for 458 yards and scored eight touchdowns, both of which rank in the top two nationally. Also, Florida’s home stadium, known as the Swamp, has long been a difficult place for opponents, despite struggles in the recent Billy Napier era, with the Gators holding a 160-30 record. Lastly, history is on their side, as Ole Miss hasn’t beaten Florida at the Swamp since 2008.
While Florida’s home-field advantage and recent form are big factors in this line, the team hasn’t shown much to justify being the favorites over Ole Miss. The Gators haven’t been as tested as the Rebels, who have already beaten two ranked opponents, and their only good win came against an Auburn team also under a new head coach. Ole Miss has already proven a lot this season, while the same can’t be said about Florida.
With the Rebels coming off a huge win over LSU and having shown time and again that they can respond to adversity under head coach Pete Golding, Ole Miss has what it takes to go into this hostile environment and avoid the upset. Kewan Lacy‘s questionable status after suffering a shoulder injury last week is certainly worth noting, but the Rebels should be able to get the job done even if he doesn’t play.
2. No. 12 USC
According to DraftKings, No. 12 USC is a three-point underdog against No. 20 Oregon. Unlike Ole Miss, I think this line is understandable given Oregon’s talent and urgency.
Oregon has had national championship expectations since the start of the season because of the veteran talent they brought back, like quarterback Dante Moore. However, they have fallen short after a close season-opening win over Boise State and an upset loss to Oklahoma State, dropping from No. 2 to No. 21 in the rankings. The Ducks got back on track with a blowout win over Portland State to move up a spot in the rankings last week, but now they will most likely have to win every remaining game to keep their hopes of making the College Football Playoff alive.
However, USC has played well and been the more consistent team heading into this game, averaging 43 points and winning all four games this season. Quarterback Jayden Maiava is having an incredible season, leading the country in passing yards and touchdowns with 1,173 yards and 12 touchdowns. The running game has been effective as well, with King Miller having 338 yards on 64 carries and scoring three touchdowns. Despite the defense giving up 30 or more points in the past two games, the offense has enough firepower to offset it.
While the Trojans have the home-field advantage, this game could come down to which team can execute under pressure. Oregon has more urgency after its loss to Oklahoma State, but USC has been more consistent. Also, the Ducks will be short-handed offensively again, as wide receiver Jeremiah McClellan is out indefinitely with a broken foot. This will likely be a close matchup, but McClellan’s injury could significantly affect Oregon’s offense. With Maiava showcasing that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and the Ducks’ inconsistency, USC should be able to avoid the upset and put a major dent in Oregon’s season.
3. No. 19 Missouri
Unlike Ole Miss and USC, No. 19 Missouri is a significant road underdog against No. 24 Mississippi State, with DraftKings listing the Tigers as 6.5-point underdogs. Given how both teams are playing, Missouri will struggle to avoid an upset.
Mississippi State has every right to be the favorite in this game, and it’s not only because they are the home team. It’s because of how well this team has started the season: they have won all their games and been battle-tested early, beating Minnesota and South Carolina on the road. The offense has been lights out, averaging 47 points and 544.7 yards per game. There are a lot of playmakers on this offense, with quarterback Kamario Taylor leading this unit, something that Missouri’s defense is going to struggle to contain.
However, the Bulldogs’ defense is vulnerable, as they allowed 34 points in their win over South Carolina. So, the Tigers’ best shot to win is through their offense, and they have the firepower to do it. Quarterback Austin Simmons has been one of the country’s most effective quarterbacks, throwing for 652 yards and eight touchdowns with no interceptions. Along with that, wide receiver Donovan Olugbode has scored four touchdowns, which is seventh in the country.
This game will come down to the turnover battle, as both teams have two turnovers. If the Tigers win that battle, they have a good shot at avoiding the upset. However, Mississippi State is better prepared for this showdown than Missouri, which had to overcome a 10-point deficit last week against Troy. As the road team, it will be hard for the Tigers to avoid an upset against a Bulldogs offense that has been one of the best in the country.
4. No. 17 Iowa
The last underdog of the week is No. 17 Iowa, a 5.5-point underdog against No. 18 Michigan, according to DraftKings. While the Hawkeyes enter the game in better form than the Wolverines, it’s hard to see them go into Michigan and pull out the win.
Despite being undefeated, Michigan has had a turbulent season, needing a controversial Hail Mary to avoid an upset over Western Michigan in Week 1 before upsetting Oklahoma. Then they had to overcome a slow start against UTEP before blowing them out after falling behind 14-7. The defense has helped offset the offense’s slow start by holding opponents to 13 points per game. Quarterback Bryce Underwood has been subpar, throwing for 504 yards and three passing touchdowns, and rushing for two touchdowns while throwing one interception. The running game has also struggled as Underwood leads the team in rushing with 156 yards.
As for Iowa, their defense remains elite, limiting opponents to 4.3 points and 176.7 yards per game, the best in the nation. The offense has been more productive than before, as quarterback Hank Brown has been effective, throwing three touchdowns and rushing one while throwing no interceptions. The running game has been the catalyst for this unit, rushing for 268 yards per game, and it will be their best bet to avoid an upset in Michigan Stadium.
However, the Wolverines are very hard to beat at home, no matter their form. The last time a Big Ten opponent beat Michigan at home, other than Ohio State, was Penn State in 2020. Iowa hasn’t beaten Michigan since 2016, and hasn’t beaten it at Michigan Stadium since 2010. The Hawkeyes might be the more consistent team, but the Wolverines at home are just too hard to beat. It’s hard to see Iowa avoiding the upset.
Main Image: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
