With the 2026 NFL regular season now officially getting underway with a full slate of week one games, here are a couple of underdogs to watch through the opening weekend.
*odds via Fanduel
NFL Week 1 Underdogs To Watch
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
The Broncos open up their 2026 NFL season by going on the road to take on division rival Kansas City as underdogs. It is a bit surprising that Denver is the underdog heading into this matchup, considering the season they came off of in 2025, where they were the number one seed in the AFC.
Denver essentially returns the same team from 2025, with additions such as Jaylen Waddle, whom they acquired in the offseason. They also have the same coaching staff returning, with Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.
The Chiefs have a lot of questions, with the most important being how Patrick Mahomes looks after tearing his ACL last season. The Broncos are in a good position to test Mahomes and his health right out of the gate, especially with the Chiefs’ second-year left tackle, Josh Simmons, expected to miss the game. Denver could set itself up nicely with a 1-0 record in the division and an early lead for the AFC West crown again.
Last season, Denver’s defense ranked top-10 in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and was the league’s top defense in success rate allowed, according to rbsdm.com. If Denver’s defense picks up where it left off from last season, the offense will have to do just enough to take down the Chiefs.
Tampa Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Both teams are in make-or-break seasons. Tampa Bay will go on the road to face the Bengals, a team that has been slow to start at the beginning of the season, the last couple of years. The Bengals tout a high-powered offense, but the Bucs have what it takes to get into a shootout with them if need be.
Last season, the Buccaneers dealt with serious injuries to their offensive line, receiving corps, and quarterback. This year, the Bucs will be looking to regain their crown as NFC South champions, and it will start by knocking off the highly touted Cincinnati Bengals on the road.
If the Buccaneers want to upset the Bengals, they will need to start by containing the Bengals’ offensive weapons, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bucs pass rush, which features 2026 first-round pick Reuben Bain Jr., will need to immediately make life uncomfortable for Joe Burrow to be able to keep a high-flying Bengals offense in check.
Houston Texans
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Houston Texans (+1.5)
The Texans open up week one at home as underdogs against Josh Allen and the Bills. It is a bit surprising as these two teams matched up last year and Houston dominated Buffalo on a Thursday to the sound of 23-19.
Allen threw two interceptions and was sacked eight times by the Texans’ ferocious defense. The Texans are once again expected to be among the league’s best defenses this season, and they can make life tough for the Bills right out of the gate this 2026 season.
This game could be a preview of a future playoff matchup this season. It is a big season for fourth-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, and if he can come out firing on all cylinders, the Texans will be primed to upset the Bills.
Main Image: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
