Can the Pittsburgh Pirates really compete in 2026? There’s a mixed reaction on that but one thing’s for certain, they got better this offseason. It looked like the Pirates were taking steps forward in 2023 and 2024 with a pair of 76-win seasons, but then they took a step back in 2025 with just a 71-win season. The offense was a big reason for that but the offseason they had gives them confidence that they can turn it around. The Pirates’ O/U is set at 78.5 wins for 2026 according to Fanduel, signalling that many believe they can compete. There’s a real chance to do so this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates O/U Win Total Will Hit the OVER
Skenes Could Win Back-to-Back NL Cy Youngs
Paul Skenes is the most obvious reason that the Pirates could hit the OVER on the projected win total in 2026. When you talk about the best pitchers in the game, it’s Skenes and Tarik Skubal. Those two are in an elite tier of aces by themselves.
He’s what makes the Pirates go as he seeks to win his second consecutive Cy Young Award. The young phenom has had one of the best starts to a career we’ve seen. He won the Rookie of the Year award in 2024, as he had an 11-3 record with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts in 23 starts. Not only did he make the All-Star team, but he also started the game.
He became the first player to be named to an All-Star in the season after he was drafted. At the time, it was also the first instance that a rookie pitcher was on the mound at the Mid-Summer Classic since 1995. Skenes ended up finishing third in the NL Cy Young voting.
It felt like the ultimate high for Skenes, but he followed it up by unanimously winning the Cy Young in 2025, pitching to an MLB-best 1.97 ERA in 32 starts. He also had 216 strikeouts and league-bests in WHIP (0.498), ERA+ (217), FIP (2.36) and HR/9 (0.5). He started back-to-back All-Star games as well, becoming the first pitcher in MLB history to start one in each of his first two seasons. Skenes finished 6th in the MVP voting.
Skenes now enters 2026 trying to win back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards and has a great chance to do so. His career 1.96 ERA is the lowest in MLB history through 55 starts in the live ball era. What Skenes has done through just two years in the majors has been nothing short of superb, and he looks to carry it into 2026 when the Pirates need it the most if they want to have any glimpse of success.
The Rotation Behind Skenes
The Pirates have the potential to have one of the best rotations in the league. Obviously, Skenes is the main driving force but there’s some talent behind him as well.
Mitch Keller is their No. 2 to start the season. For the most part, he has been a steady, durable and dependable arm his entire seven-year career with the Pirates.Â
Then comes rookie Bubba Chandler, who has a great chance to bump up to the second spot early on. He showed some great promise in his short stint with the team last season. Chandler went 4-1 with a 4.02 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 31.3 innings. The 23-year-old also had a 21.8% strikeout/ball rate and allowed just a .214 batting average against. There’s a real good chance he will be a mainstay in this rotation.
Braxton Ashcraft has a ton of upside in this Pirates rotation as well. In 2025, he pitched to a 2.71 ERA in 26 games (eight starts) and had 71 strikeouts in 69.2 innings. He followed that up with a great spring training, having a 2.03 ERA in four starts with 16 strikeouts in 13.1 innings. If he lives up to his hype, he could give the Pirates some stability in the middle or back end of the rotation.
The biggest question in the rotation will be Carmen Mlodzinski, who’s had a better career with the Pirates as a reliever than a starter. In 2025 as a reliever, he was 4-4 with a 2.15 ERA with 53 strikeouts in 50.1 innings. As a starter, he went 1-4 with a 4.99 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 48.2 innings. After a couple of years of nice relief work, he gets another crack at the rotation, hoping to finally break through as a starter. He also earned it with a nice spring.Â
The Pirates’ rotation is set to start the season with Skenes, Keller, Mlodzinski, Ashcraft and Chandler, in this order. But don’t forget about Jared Jones, who will come back later in the year after missing all of last season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. He’s shown the most upside of them all behind Skenes.
Before the injury, in 22 starts, he had a 4.14 ERA with 132 strikeouts in 121.2 innings. Jones has dominant stuff and can be a key piece on the mound for Pittsburgh when he comes back. At his best, Jones can be the Pirates’ best pitcher behind Skenes, giving them the best 1-2 punches in the game. That will make this rotation even stronger and deeper. It will be the a big reason whether or not the team goes over on their projected win total.
New Faces on Offense
The Pittsburgh offense was flat-out horrible in 2025. They finished last in runs scored, home runs and RBI, wasting great performances from Skenes and the rest of the pitching staff. They went out this offseason and brought in a trio of bats that can help turn this offense around in 2026.
Via trade, the Pirates acquired Brandon Lowe from the Tampa Bay Rays. He earned his second All-Star appearance with 31 home runs and 83 RBI, which were both the second-most of his career.Â
On the free-agent market, the Pirates also picked up a couple of power bats. First Ryan O’Hearn, who is coming off a career year in split time with the Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres. Between the two, he set career-highs in home runs (17) and RBI (63) while having a batting average of .281.Â
The other piece they picked up was Marcell Ozuna, who has hit 100 home runs across the last three seasons. He fell off last season after having back-to-back 100-RBI seasons in 2023 and 2024 with 40 and 39 home runs, respectively. He also made the All-Star game in 2024 and finished fourth in the MVP voting. Even so, he still had 21 home runs with 68 RBI in 2025, which will be a huge boost for this Pittsburgh offense.
The three acquisitions join an offense that already has Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Henry Davis, who the latter two are hoping to take the next step. This offense on paper is already heads and shoulders above what last year produced.Â
No. 1 Prospect On the Horizon
The Pirates’ offense has the potential to be even better when Konnor Griffin joins the team at some point down the road, who is the No. 1 prospect in baseball. Pittsburgh made the surprising decision to send him back down, but pointed to his long-term development as the reason. He didn’t have the hottest spring, and there is no rush for a Pirates team still trying to figure things out at the major league level.
Griffin has the chance to be a superstar, having the all-around tools and maturity to rise quickly in the big leagues. Without Griffin, the Pirates can still compete to hit their projected win total, but with him competing at a potential Rookie of the Year level, this team will be even better.
Main Image: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
