The St. Louis Cardinals are entering a rebuild for the first time in a very long time. Because of that, their over/under projection at Fanduel is set at 69.5 wins for 2026. That being said, that number seems a little too low even with the change in team direction. Yes, the Cardinals traded some of their top players and have shifted to some younger pieces, but there’s also some intrigue with the talent they have. While the postseason is probably not in the books for St. Louis this season, there are multiple reasons why the OVER will hit when it comes to the Cardinals’ O/U win total in 2026.
Cardinals O/U: They Will Hit the OVER On Their Projected 69.5 Wins
A Healthy Dustin May
There are multiple things that need to go the Cardinals’ way to secure a 70+ win season and one of them is sending a healthy Dustin May out to the mound every fifth day. The club signed May to a one-year deal worth $12.5M with a mutual option for 2027. The 28-year-old was once a highly-touted talent but the one question has always been about his health. He pitched last season for the first time in nearly two years due to injury. May looked a little rusty as expected, but he still showed glimpses of his old self.
Now May enters 2026 with a fresh start and a full spring training to build up his arm with the Cardinals. He’s seen some positive returns in spring training, doing so feeling fully healthy. In 11.2 innings across three starts, May had an ERA of 1.54 with seven strikeouts and a 0.94 WHIP. Those numbers in and of itself really don’t mean a whole lot given it’s spring training but that’s not what is getting people excited; it’s his velocity that is getting the hype.
May was hitting 98-99 MPH in his early outings and in his third one, he touched 100 MPH. With his movement and uptick in velo, May finally looks healthy and ready to be the veteran leader in a rotation full of young guys.
We’ve seen what a healthy May looks like, winning a World Series with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020 after pitching to a career-best 2.57 ERA in 12 games (10 starts). If May can stay healthy, and that’s a big if, then the Cardinals look to have a reliable top-end-of-the-rotation arm to help them win games in a season when the signing was initially viewed as nothing more than a low-risk flyer.
JJ Wetherholt’s Rookie Breakout
Before 2024, the last time the Cardinals had a top-10 pick in the MLB Draft was in 1998 when they selected J.D. Drew with the fifth overall pick. Fast forward to 2024 and they finally got another pick inside the top 10. This time, they selected JJ Wetherholt with the seventh overall selection. He was drafted as a shortstop but will convert to second base with Masyn Winn already on the left side.
Wetherholt is the Cardinals’ top prospect and the number five overall prospect according to MLB Pipeline. This comes after acing his first full season in the minors, splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A in 2025. In both leagues, he hit .306/.421/.510 with 17 home runs and 59 RBI while also stealing 23 bases. His 23 stolen bases exemplify his on-base skill and above-average speed. Wetherholt also has great plate discipline and the tools to succeed at the plate. He doesn’t have crazy power but he’s been working hard on his mechanics to generate a little more pop. That bodes well for his overall offensive ability to be an above-average hitter in the big leagues.
As mentioned, he will convert to second base and has worked a little at third as well, giving him versatility with his strong arm. His speed just doesn’t help him on the bases, as it will also help him in the field with his range.
The Cardinals have high hopes for Wetherholt, as the team needs a much-needed injection of homegrown talent succeeding in the majors. That’s what everyone thinks he can do, as he is one of the favorites to win the NL Rookie of the Year in 2026. If Wetherholt can be what everyone is projecting him to be, the Cardinals’ lineup got a little better and might add a few more wins because of his play.
Herrera’s Bat
MLB Network ranked Ivan Herrera as a top-10 catcher in all of baseball. His offense factors a lot into that ranking, as he is the best consistent power hitter on the Cardinals and one of the best power-hitting catchers in the majors. In 2025, Herrera slashed .284/.373/.464 while hitting 19 home runs with 66 RBI in just 107 games. He missed time last year due to various injuries but these numbers show that when healthy and playing nearly a full season, he could hit 25+ home runs and have even better numbers across the board.
Herrera has some of the best bat-to-ball skills in the league and gets on base at a high clip. He also has low strikeout numbers. In fact, there were only 17 hitters who had an 18.6 K% or lower and a 124 wRC+ in 2025, and Herrera was one of them.
While there are questions about his defense, as the Cardinals hope to start him more at catcher, there’s no question about how he can perform at the plate. If Herrera stays healthy, he has the potential to be one of the best bats in all of MLB, and that will bode very well for the team.
The Defense of Winn and Scott III
Defense can win you some games just as much as offense can and we’ve seen that with Cardinals teams in the past. The Cardinals enter the season with two Gold Glove contenders up the middle with Winn at shortstop and Victor Scott III in center field. In fact, Winn won the Gold Glove last season while Scott was a finalist. The team as a whole finished first in Outs Above Average with 35, and a majority of that had to do with these two players.
Winn himself was tied for fourth in all of baseball in Outs Above Average with 21 and second among all shortstops in 2025. His fielding percentage was tops in the league at .994, committing only three errors for the entire season. Scott, on the other hand, in center field had 16 Outs Above Average, which was third among all outfielders.
While the Cardinals could see average to below average defense at other positions around the diamond, you can count on Winn and Scott to carry the load out on the field as they did last season. If anything, the team won games in 2025 because of the duo’s defense alone and can win games in 2026 for the same reason.
Last Three Seasons Proved They Can Win 70+ Games
Over the last three seasons, the Cardinals have not performed up to St. Louis standards. They’ve had lesser rosters in each of those seasons, yet have still managed to win 70+ games. This includes 2023, when they finished with a record of 71-91, something the city hasn’t seen in decades. They then won 83 and 78 games the next two seasons, failing to reach the postseason.
While those still aren’t records to gloat about, it should make people feel better about the Cardinals hitting the over on their projected total of 69.5 wins. Even their worst season in YEARS was above that total.
The Cardinals have some young, promising talent that they hope to develop into really good baseball players, and they also have a better rotation than last season on paper, even though that’s not saying much. They might not make the postseason, but it’s hard to fathom the Cardinals only winning 69 games or fewer in 2026.
Main Image: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images
