Victor Wembanyama returned and ended the reigning NBA Champs’ 16-game win streak and their time in Vegas. This leaves a pending wrinkle for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This matters long-term for the Thunder, Wembanyama is a matchup nightmare. If the Thunder wants to establish a dynasty, then they will have to solve their toughest equation moving forward — of defending and attacking Wemby.
The Future of OKC vs Wembanyama
Defensive Nightmare
We all know Wemby’s elite defensively. What makes him elite defensively — go back and watch the first quarter of the recent Thunder-Spurs game — when the Thunder grew a double-digit lead. Watch how effortlessly Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was getting to his spots and scoring. He just couldn’t see the defender in front of him, because they were so worried about getting beat that they were playing too far off him, letting him take those elbow jumpers and get that separation in the midrange.
Then, Wemby checks in for the first time in the second quarter and shares the floor with SGA, and all of a sudden. SGA cannot get clean looks because of the confidence + trust the Spurs have in Wemby. Every point-of-attack defender played SGA more aggressively, got into the ball more — whenever they were defending the ball — whether it was SGA or anyone else, because they no longer worried about getting beat because of Wemby’s presence.
It gives the Spurs a layer of confidence and insurance that really stalled the Thunder’s offense and, by the eye test, slowed SGA down, making him work relentlessly to create opportunities not only for himself but also for his teammates.
Offensive Disruption
Wemby is so unique that a team like the Thunder, which is very successful in utilizing this strategy by scaling players in Jalen Williams and Alex Caruso up to defend bigger players. It didn’t work Saturday night against Wemby, and it didn’t project to work against Wemby for long stretches. It takes away one of the moves the Thunder like to go to. So now, the Thunder have to go from throwing their fastball to throwing a slider.
Now, let’s dive a bit deeper into matchup nightmares, looking at it through the prism of who can force the Thunder to change how they play. It’s not even about who could outright beat the Thunder, or who could make the Thunder do something they’re not proficient at, but who could get the Thunder to play outside their comfort zone.
Wemby is in that category. Wemby makes you change how you defend him, creating a matchup problem that changes everything for the Thunder long-term. Another aspect in all of this is how the Thunder can give SGA better looks and generate better offense as a team whenever Wemby’s on the floor?
What to Monitor Moving Forward?
How do the Thunder create better looks for SGA in the half-court against the Wemby Spurs? Lucky for the Thunder, they get another opportunity on December 23rd and on Christmas.
Defending Wemby in different ways. Many were perplexed by the Thunder’s insistence on J-Dub and Caruso defending Wemby and not putting Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein on Wemby. First, you need to look at it with a full lens, understand the whys, and grasp the bigger picture. This is a unique opportunity to collect data during this matchup.
What does J-Dub and Caruso look like defending Wemby, and can the Thunder get away with what they prefer to do by J-Dub and Caruso scale up and defend bigger players, and let Holmgen and Hartenstein roam and be help-side defenders?
The Thunder can go back to the drawing board and see what Holmgren looks like taking on the assignment by matching Wemby minute-by-minute. And whether it’s good or bad, the Thunder can go back to the drawing board and see what Hartenstein looks like taking on the assignment.
Now, the Thunder could have three different data points against a team they would probably see in the postseason, and three different results and looks, so they could say this option gives them the most success overall defensively.
The four main components to monitor are: how the Thunder get SGA better looks, how they defend and attack Wemby, and how they generate better half-court offense moving forward. This is a big-picture takeaway from their disappointing loss in Vegas.
Main Image: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
