With mere weeks to go before the start of the new NFL season, fans are excited as we approach September 4 and the season’s curtain-raiser between the Eagles and Cowboys.
Of course, it will be a long, hard road across 272 games until we get to January and the business of the Playoffs, and there will be plenty of disappointment for plenty of fans. Some players expected to do well will struggle, whereas others will come out of nowhere to surprise doubters and critics.
But what about the season’s MVP award? Who will be crowned the league’s best player at the end of the season? We aren’t going to stick our neck out with any tips, but we can dive into the betting markets for the award, as well as look at some broader trends on how the voting goes:
The Best Quarterback Award?
Most fans will know that the MVP award is heavily skewed toward quarterbacks. The last non-QB to win the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Overall, the 21st century has seen a huge shift in favor of the quarterback position: 3 of 25 awards have gone to non-QBs, a rate of 12%, whereas it was closer to 46% from 1957-1999.
The Current Markets
As you might expect, the betting markets reflect skewing toward the QB position, with almost every name on the list playing in that position. If you fancy breaking the norm, players like Saquon Barkley can be found at odds of +5000, but every non-longshot is a quarterback.
The Market Leaders
Week 1 of the NFL’s new season sees the Baltimore Ravens visit the Buffalo Bills in an absolute blockbuster. It’ll be an interesting, but challenging, game to attempt to predict the winner and for NFL player props bets, but it also contains the two market leaders for the MVP award – Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. There is no difference the betting odds, with both coming in at +550.
A Note On Last Season
We know Allen won the award last season, at least officially. However, it was also one of those rare seasons that the Associated Press (AP) votes differed from the Professional Football Writers of America’s. The former went for Allen, the latter for Jackson. It was the first time there was a split since the 2003 season. Again, that’s something that used to happen more frequently.
The Other Contenders
Would anyone be surprised to see Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow win the award? Of course not. The pair is right on the heels of Jackson and Allen in the betting markets. We should also note that Jayden Daniels is right in the mix here. His incredible rookie season in a Washington Commanders uniform has put him in the elite category. Still, there will be a different kind of pressure this season as expectations are higher.
The Other Candidates
There is a massive gap between the odds’ front five and the man in sixth place, Jalen Hurts. But we should not forget that Hurts was named Super Bowl MVP in February. Justin Herbert, CJ Stroud, Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield are also in the “only a minor shock” category. Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Jarred Goff are also in around +3000, making it unlikely but certainly not impossible. Aaron Rodgers, Sam Darnold, and JJ McCarthy are in the “Hail Mary” category, but plenty of players have beaten those odds in the past.
