Many are saying the Oklahoma City Thunder are what the Memphis Grizzlies were supposed to be. Now, these two teams have the chance to settle the score.
Oklahoma City is coming off a historic season and is looking to capture their first championship. This Thunder group is playing with heavy expectations for the first time, and it’ll be a disappointment if Oklahoma City doesn’t make the finals.
As for Memphis, they’re the perfect example of how loaded the Western Conference is. A 48-win team isn’t your typical 8th-seed.
Memphis is a talented young team with star power. At one point, they were the second seed before sliding down and dealing with injuries and internal issues, which led to the shocking firing of Taylor Jenkins.
Thunder-Grizzlies Preview
Season Series
The Thunder swept the Grizzlies in the regular season, winning all four games by double digits.
Playoff History
This will be the fourth time Oklahoma City has faced Memphis in the playoffs. The Thunder are 9-10 all-time against the Grizzlies in the playoffs.
The most recent playoff series between the two teams was in 2014, which the Thunder won 4-3.
Main Storyline
Before Oklahoma City, Memphis was the young team everyone was gravitating toward, who had the makings to be a contender over the next half-decade.
Ja Morant, who many believed was the most exciting young player and potential face of the league. Jaren Jackson Jr. won Defensive Player of the Year in 2023. Desmond Bane is ascending into an excellent NBA player to round out their young big three.
Then, unexpected things happened, including Dillion Brooks’s departure and Morant’s missing significant time due to injuries and suspensions, which led to Taylor Jenkins’s eventual departure.
While Memphis dealt with its internal issues, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander catapulted himself into superstardom, and Oklahoma City took advantage of the opportunity as the premier young team in the league.
To show how quickly the NBA moves, the last time the Thunder lost to the Grizzlies was December 7th, 2022. The Thunder have won 9 straight vs the Grizzlies.
Things To Keep An Eye On
The Health Of Ja Morant
Morant injured his ankle against Golden State Warriors when he awkwardly landed on Buddy Hield’s foot. He returned to the game, but it was clear he wasn’t his usual self.
He was a game-time on Friday against Dallas Mavericks. Morant said, “he’s not missing the game… and is playing”.
Now, Morant has a quick turnaround before Game 1. And due to the severity of the injury, he won’t likely be fully healed. His status will be a key storyline throughout the series. If the Grizzlies want a chance of upsetting the Thunder, he must be operating at full strength.
The Front-Courts
The frontcourts of Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey vs. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein will be intriguing.
The cross-matching and the way both teams attack the spacing will be huge indicators of whether this series will be prolonged.
The Thunder can counter Jackson with Holmgren and Edey with Hartenstein.
To make this a quick series, the Holmgren-Hartenstein pairing will have to contain Edey on the glass.
The Pace
Both teams will look to push the tempo, as they are both at their best when the pace is up.
Memphis is number one in Pace (103.69), number six in ORTG (117.2), number two in PPG (121.7), number one in drives per game (59.3), and number two in paint points (56).
Oklahoma City is number five in Pace (100.90), number three in ORTG (119.2), number four in PPG (120.5), number two in drives per game (54.5), number one in points allowed in the paint (42.5), forced turnovers (17), points off turnovers (21.8), and in DTRG (106.6).
Keys To The Series
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Due to his defensive skills, Jackson Jr. is the Grizzlies’ most important player.
However, he has had foul trouble issues throughout his career. Getting him in foul trouble will create significant advantages for the Thunder, causing him to either be on the bench at the end of games or having to play differently, more cautiously.
Desmond Bane
Desmond Bane shoots the ball at an elite rate and can go off for 30+ points.
It’s essential to make him defend and spend a good amount of energy on the defensive end.
When you make him work hard on the defensive end, Bane becomes less efficient offensively.
Santi Aldama
Santi Aldama is a guy who goes uncounted for. If you watch Memphis, then he’s been good for them — offensively.
That’s been the shift for Memphis over the last couple of seasons. Memphis used to be one of the best defensive teams. Now, they’re one of the best offensive teams, and their defense has taken a step back.
While he’s not a top-three option, he’s not afraid to let it fly. Knowing the personnel and understanding him as a player will be key, as he is an X-factor candidate.
Offensive Keys
Offensively, Memphis will be hyperfocus on slowing down Gilgeous-Alexander, as everything starts with him.
In the regular season series, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 36.3 points, 7.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks on 54 percent from the floor and 41 percent from three, with a 64.1 percent true-shooting percentage.
This is where Jalen Williams comes into play. As Oklahoma City’s second All-Star, and Gilgeous-Alexander being the primary focus, his secondary creation will be pivotal for the Thunder.
Knowing how Oklahoma City has had Memphis’s number. Their pride and sense of urgency will be amplified.
Expect Oklahoma City to continue to utilize Gilgeous-Alexander to create advantages for his teammates, whether on or off the ball. Getting players advantages in the paint and, with Edey and Jackson Jr. occupying the paint, getting both of them in foul trouble will create more success for the Thunder.
Series Prediction
Oklahoma City in four. The Thunder are coming from one of the most impressive regular seasons in NBA history. They broke their franchise record in wins, winning 68 games. This matchup favors the Thunder, as they have the size, depth, and offensive and defensive personnel to overwhelm Memphis.
Memphis hasn’t beaten a playoff team in the West since January 20th, when they beat the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Grizzlies come into the series with a lot of firepower. However, the Thunder have the personnel to negate the Grizzlies.
With everything that’s conspiring in Membis and how Oklahoma City has played all year, it’s tough to envision this being a long series.
Expect big games from Gilgeous-Alexander, and expect the Thunder to make it tough for Morant with all of the perimeter defenders Oklahoma City can throw at him. In two games he played against the Thunder, he’s been held under his averages—20 points, 6.5 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 turnovers on 34% shooting from the floor.
If the Thunder plays the way we have seen them play all year, they should win the series comfortably.
Main Image: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
