Not every team will have a winning record during an NFL season. Some teams have championship aspirations simply underachieve, while an injury or two could send a team’s season down the toilet. Whether due to expectations, injuries, or dysfunction, here are five teams that could go under their win total in 2025.
*Win Totals are from Fanduel SportsBook
5 NFL Teams Who Will Go Under Their Win Total
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Kansas City Chiefs, Over/Under 11.5
I know it sounds crazy when you think about it, but the Kansas City Chiefs will go under their win total in 2025. In the last three seasons, the Chiefs have played more games than anyone in the entire NFL and have won more than anyone. The Chiefs have been chasing greatness for a while and have accomplished it, but in 2025, I believe they will take a step back.
One of the main reasons for the Chiefs going under is that their division as a whole will be the best it’s been since the Patrick Mahomes–Andy Reid era started in 2017. Last season, three teams from the division made the playoffs and made improvements to their roster. The Las Vegas Raiders finished in last place and have made sweeping changes to their organization this season that will make them a better team as well.
The Chiefs offensive line was exposed during the Super Bowl and while they continue to address the problem that could continue to be an issue for KC in 2025. Travis Kelce will be a year older and the Chiefs running back room lacks a game-breaker. All of these issues could lead to the Chiefs going under their win total.
San Francisco 49ers, Over/Under 10.5
The 49ers experienced a letdown season in 2024 after making the Super Bowl in 2023. SF went 6-11 in the season and finished last in the NFC West. Vegas must think highly of the 49ers and are expecting a bounceback because their win total is at 10.5. Even though the 49ers will play a last-place schedule, I believe they will go under their 10.5 total.
Over this offseason, the Niners have lost plenty of contributors in players such as Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward, and Talanoa Hufanga. The Los Angeles Rams will be stiff competition to the 49ers for the NFC West crown. Also, the rest of the teams in that division got better as well.
New England Patriots, Over/Under 7.5
The Patriots are set to have a 7.5-win total, which is surprising in many ways. New England has won eight games combined in the last two seasons. New England fired coach Jerod Mayo after one season this offseason and hired Mike Vrabel, a two-time NFL Coach of the Year. Vrabel is known for getting the best out of his teams and overachieving like he did while being the head coach of the Tennessee Titans.
However, this 2025 Patriots team will be his biggest test yet. The Patriots roster lacks the talent to be aggressively competitive this season, which is what the 7.5-win total applies. The Pats could go from four wins to seven this year which would fall under the 7.5 total, but it will also be a three-game improvement from what they did each of the last two seasons.
They have a bright future with second-year quarterback Drake Maye, but the Patriots may still be a year or two away from competing. They spent a lot of money on free agency this year, signing Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, and Stefon Diggs. The Patriots will be in a competitive division in the AFC West and also have the AFC North on its schedule.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Over/Under 8.5
The Buccaneers have been the definition of steady the last couple of seasons. They have not been world-beaters or underwhelming. They have simply just been steady. While their division counterparts fail to live up to expectations, the Bucs take advantage of their division’s incompetence. However, I believe that changes this season. I think the Atlanta Falcons could take the division in 2025 and almost took it from Tampa Bay in 2024. Also, Baker Mayfield will be on his third straight offensive coordinator after his previous two left for head coaching jobs.
Tampa Bay also has some tough opponents on their schedule. They play the LA Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers.
Detroit Lions, Over/Under 10.5
The Lions were the number one seed in the NFC playoffs last year with a 14-3 record. In 2025, the Lions’ coaching staff will look completely different. Even though head coach Dan Campbell remains intact, the Lions lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs elsewhere. The coaching staff shake-up is one thing, but it also should be noted that the Lions are playing in arguably the toughest division in football, the NFC North.
Every team in the NFC North will be expected to compete for a playoff spot, and each team in the division has a win total over/under of at least 8.5. The division will inevitably cannibalize itself at some point, which makes predicting a winner pretty tough after the Lions won the division that last two seasons.
Detroit has a brutal schedule outside the division, having to face the Rams, Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Chiefs, Washington Commanders, and Cincinnati Bengals.
Main Image: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images
