Over the past couple of seasons the St. Louis Cardinals have failed to make the postseason, something rarely seen from the franchise. They also had a historically bad 71 wins in 2023 but had a bounce back of sorts in 2024, posting a winning record of 83-79. Heading into 2025, there are questions as to whether the Cardinals can put together another winning season with the current state of the franchise.
According to FanDuel, the Cardinals’ O/U for the upcoming campaign is set at 75.5. There are legitimate cases to be made on both the over and under but surpassing the 75.5-win threshold seems plausible for this 2025 Cardinals squad.
2025 St. Louis Cardinals O/U: Why the Cardinals Will Hit the OVER
Jordan Walker Breakout Year
Once a consensus top-four prospect in all of baseball, Jordan Walker was primed to be the next big thing in St. Louis, at least that’s what every Cardinals fan hoped. He had the size, speed, arm strength, and just the overall look of someone who would dominate the game. So far through two seasons, that hasn’t been the case.
Walker made his major league debut on opening day in 2023 and started out with an impressive 12-game hitting streak. After that, it went downhill and he was soon demoted to Triple-A in April. He finished with a .276 batting average, 16 home runs, and 51 RBI in 117 games with the Cardinals that season. He finished 2023 strong and was hoping to carry that over to the 2024 campaign but that didn’t happen either.
After a horrible start in 2024, Walker was sent down to the minors yet again, where he spent most of his season. He failed to elevate the ball at the plate and was striking out more than the team would’ve liked. He finished playing just 51 games with the Cardinals to the tune of a .201 average with five home runs and 20 RBI.
With all of that being said, Walker is in a position to succeed in 2025 and have a breakout year for the Cardinals. He’s been working hard to fix his mechanics and approach at the plate this offseason. Walker said he wants to get back to what he was doing in 2023 that found him success as a rookie.
The Cardinals will be focusing on development coming into this season and that’s a perfect way for Walker to prove why he was one of baseball’s top prospects once upon a time. He will have plenty of opportunities to get right in 2025 while not feeling as much pressure as he did over the last two seasons. Not to mention that Walker is still just 22 years old, still holding all the potential in the world to become a star. He has the tools to be a big part of the Cardinals’ future plans moving forward. Patients are still necessary but hopefully 2025 is setting up to be just the start of something special.
Similar Roster That Won 83 Games in 2024
While the roster isn’t the exact same as last year, a good portion of the team remains from 2024. The biggest piece on offense that they lost was Paul Goldschmidt, who looked to be on the decline from his previous years. The Cardinals will replace him with Willson Contreras at first, who’s one of the best offensive players on the team. They will also lose guys in the rotation like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, both of whom are 37 years of age. Both will be replaced by young talent who are looking for spots with the club.
Other than those three players, the Cardinals pretty much return the same team that won 83 games last season. That 83-win season was good for second in the NL Central and a 12-win increase from their 71 wins in 2023. This team still consists of younger guys like Walker, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, and Ivan Herrera mixed in with veteran talent such as Nolan Arenado (for now) and Contreras. They also have Lars Nootbaar and the ever-so-versatile Brendan Donovan. The rotation is also headlined by ace Sonny Gray.
Like last season, this current group of talent can squeeze past the 75.5-win threshold for 2025. Also, something to keep in mind is the history of the Cardinals, who always find a way to win a fair amount of games. Besides their 71-win season in 2023, the Cardinals haven’t had less than 76 wins in a season since 1999 (75 wins). It’s true that the Cardinals are in a stretch of baseball not usually seen in St. Louis but whether it’s 83 wins or 76 wins, the Cardinals will hit their way to over the projected mark.
Helsley Will Close Games
A huge piece of the Cardinals heading into 2025 is closer Ryan Helsley. He’s coming off of a historic campaign, setting the franchise record for saves in a single season with 49. He also set a franchise record by converting 31 consecutive save opportunities. With those 49 saves, he led the league in save percentage (92.5 percent) and pitched to a 2.04 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP. Helsley combined for 56 wins in 2024, helping the Cardinals secure another winning season.
There were talks in the offseason that the Cardinals might’ve dealt Helsley before this season but nothing came of it. Their next chance might be at the MLB trade deadline if the Cardinals are out of it. Whatever the case, Helsley will be locked in coming into 2025 after coming off of a historic season. While last year’s numbers won’t likely be duplicated, Helsley is expected to put up good numbers yet again and help the Cardinals close out a good amount of games in 2025.
A Mediocre NL Central
As mentioned above, the Cardinals finished second in the NL Central in 2024 with an 83-79 record. Not much has changed about how the division looks. There’s a possibility that the Chicago Cubs could jump up and win the crown with their offseason moves but it’s not a drastic change. The Milwaukee Brewers won 93 games last season but looks like they will hit a little bit of a regression and while the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates could win a couple more games this season, it’s not enough to change the outlook of the division.
The Pirates finished in last place in 2024 with 76 wins. The Cardinals O/U is set at 75.5. Unless everything goes wrong for the Cardinals, there’s no reason to believe that St. Louis will finish with a worse record than Pittsburgh did last year. The NL Central hasn’t been strong for a few years and that’s unlikely to change in 2025. This division won’t be enough to hold the Cardinals to 75 wins or below.
Main Image: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
