The 2024 season was a success in the long rebuild of the Kansas City Royals. Led by superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and strong pitching by RHP Seth Lugo and LHP Cole Ragans, the Royals made the playoffs for the first time since 2015 when the Royals took down the New York Mets in the World Series. Kansas City won its American League Wildcard matchup against the Baltimore Orioles in two games but fell short to the New York Yankees in the Divisional Series, 3-1.
Now, in 2025, the Royals have a tremendous opportunity to make another step in the right direction, which is to make a run at the AL Central division title and even a shot at the AL Pennant. According to FanDuel, Kansas City’s projected Over/Under win total is set at 82.5, which is right around the 500 mark. Here’s why the Royals can hit the OVER in 2025.
2025 Kansas City Royals O/U: Why the Royals can hit the OVER
Roster has nearly stayed the same from 2024
Kansas City’s roster for the 2025 season has stayed mainly the same. Key players like Lugo, Wacha, Witt Jr, Ragans, etc, are all back for 2025. You might see a drop-off in production from Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, but the potential for increased production from Cole Ragans and more depth in the bullpen will go a long way. This roster won 86 games last season, and with the potential for more wins with Witt Jr and a healthy Vinnie Pasquantino, the Royals could be looking at another playoff berth.
Newcomers
Kansas City’s roster for the 2025 season has stayed mainly the same. However, it was able to bring in a couple of players for the bullpen and lineup. First, the Royals have a new second baseman with former Cincinnati Red, Jonathan India. India had a tough season in 2024 for the Reds, only batting .248 with 132 total hits and 15 home runs in 151 games. He has yet to replicate his 2021 season, where he won NL Rookie of the Year, but India could find some success in Kansas City.
The Royals also brought in right-handed relief pitcher Carlos Estévez, who is coming off his best season in his career. For the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies, Estévez had a 2.45 ERA in 55 innings pitched. He adds another arm the Royals could use out of the bullpen in 2025. Estévez will go well alongside arms like Lucas Erceg and John Schreiber.
Bobby Witt Jr.
Obviously, if you talk about the Kansas City Royals, you’ve got to talk about the franchise player, Bobby Witt Jr. The 24-year-old shortstop will come off a near MVP-caliber season in 2024, batting .332, including 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 home runs, and 109 RBIs. Witt Jr. also stole 31 bases and won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, finished second in AL MVP voting, and finished with 9.4 wins above replacement (WAR), which ranked second in the entire MLB.
Now, this will be hard to replicate in 2025. However, according to FanDuel, Witt Jr. is currently the AL MVP betting favorite at +270. The next best is the winner from last year, Aaron Judge. According to ZiPS projections, Witt Jr. is projected as the fourth best player in the MLB, behind Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto in WAR with 6.1. It will be tough, but he will have a shot at the award in 2025.
Final Win Total Prediction
The Royals are ahead of time, making the playoffs much earlier on than expected in a rebuild that seems like it has been going since they won the World Series in 2015. Kansas City’s lineup feels heavy with Witt Jr, Pasquantino, Perez, etc. An injury in the Royals’ key contributors, offensively and/or defensively, will slow them down for sure. However, if they can stay consistent and avoid any major injuries, Kansas City could get a winning record in 2025 with around 84-86 wins and compete for the division title.
The AL Central top spot still might be too much to ask for, with the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins as playoff contenders and the Detroit Tigers coming off a surprise playoff berth last season. It could be any team’s division this year.
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