The suspense of the final day of the MLB season approaches, and the anticipation in Atlanta continues to build. The post-Hurricane Helene weather has graced Atlanta with a beautiful day at Truist Park but left an extra layer of drama to an already high-stakes affair. Hurricane Helene may be the break the Atlanta Braves needed.
The Weather issues cause the remainder of the New York Mets vs. Braves series to be extended to a doubleheader on Monday, adding an exhilarating and dramatic end to the 2024 season. One team will clinch a wildcard. One team is to be eliminated. Only one thing is for sure: the Braves are primed and ready to seize this opportunity and follow this hurricane to a World Series.
Braves to Follow Hurricane Helene to a World Series
The Hurricane and the Implications
After securing an impressive victory in the series opener, Atlanta now sets its sights on the final two parts of this crucial three-game set, aiming to clinch the tiebreaker against both the Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race. Going into Saturday’s games, the Braves are tied with the Mets at 87-71, with Arizona facing the Padres tonight at 88-72.
After a home win Friday against the already playoff-bound Royals, the Mets headed to Milwaukee, their first loss against three to the AL Central Champion Brewers, and the Diamondbacks host the top Wild Card holder, Padres, it would seem the cards are lining up in the Braves’s favor.
Given the best-case scenario for the Braves, sweeping the Royals made them 89-71 going into Monday’s doubleheader. While if the Mets and Diamondbacks lose the final two games against the Brewers and Padres, the Wild Card standings going into Monday’s doubleheader would be Braves, Diamondbacks, and the Mets on the outside looking up.
The Braves and the World Series Odds
As the playoff picture continues to evolve, projection systems have grappled with accurately pricing the Braves’ postseason chances. Estimates range from BatX’s optimistic 53% playoff projection to PECOTA’s more conservative 38.7% forecast, resulting in implied odds that could span anywhere from +160 to -115 for Atlanta to secure a playoff berth.
However, when it comes to their World Series odds, the Braves present an enticing value proposition. With high-end projections pegging their chances of capturing the Commissioner’s Trophy at 5% (implying odds of +1900) and low-end estimates suggesting a 1% probability (odds of +10000), the current market line of +3500 appears to undervalue Atlanta’s potential. I like this bet.
Epic Comeback to an Injury-Plagued Season
Despite losing Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, and Ronald Acuna, the Braves return Ozzie Albies and Reynaldo Lopez to the field. It was a big break for the team amidst a devastating year, but all is not lost, and a WS run is brewing.
While the Braves’ path to the World Series may seem like a longshot, their current odds of +3500 present an enticing value proposition, especially considering their potential upside. With a potent pitching staff, a resurgent offense, and a wealth of postseason experience, Atlanta could defy the odds and etch their name in baseball immortality once again.
As the first pitch looms and the stakes reach their zenith, the Braves stand poised to embark on a quest that could cement their legacy as one of the most resilient and formidable teams in recent memory. Monday’s clash against the Mets is just the first step on that journey, but it’s a step that could reverberate throughout the annals of baseball history. It is truly a must-watch doubleheader and a gift from the Baseball Gawds.
Main Image: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
