It’s officially the dog days of August and while the season is far from over, much more about the 2024 season has become clear in the aftermath of the trade deadline. As teams enter the stretch run the favorites for major awards become clearer. While the MVP and Cy Young races consist almost entirely of bona-fide big league superstars, the Rookie of the Year races allow fans to be introduced to new names who have taken the league by storm and established themselves as productive big leaguers. While the NL race includes several star players, the AL Rookie of the Year favorites are lesser-known, with the pre-season favorites not performing as expected less renowned players have taken over the race. This has made the race very compelling and brought some new players into the spotlight.
Favorites for the AL Rookie of the Year Award
Colton Cowser, LF, BAL
Playing for the star-studded Baltimore Orioles, outfielder Colton Cowser has been overshadowed by the other young stars on that roster despite being a very good player and the favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year. The former top prospect leads all rookies in fWAR with 3.1 and over 105 games the 24-year-old put up a 124 wRC+ while playing very good left-field defense. His 10 outs above average put him in the upper echelon of players in MLB. He swings hard and he hits the ball hard, with a 73.9 mph bat speed and 88th percentile hard hit rate he has shown he has the tools to be a legitimate big-league slugger.
The results are showing this as well, after a poor performance in his brief stint in 2023 when he hit just .115 in 77 plate appearances he has turned it around this year. He is hitting a solid .253 while slugging .459, good for second-best among AL rookies. The biggest criticism of Cowser has been that he strikes out too much and while that’s true, he’s still young and his approach will get better as he gains more big league experience. He has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game but when he doesn’t miss he can do damage, making him one of the best rookies in baseball in 2024.
Austin Wells, C, NYY
It has been a tumultuous season for the New York Yankees who have struggled to build lineup depth around their star players. With many Yankee veterans struggling mightily offensively they needed some young blood to step up and shoulder some of the run-scoring load. Enter 25-year-old catcher Austin Wells who’s 115 wRC+ is fourth-best on the Yankees and among AL catchers with at least 250 plate appearances. That’s extremely impressive for a young backstop, especially when paired with his above-average blocking and elite pitch framing you get not only the best rookie catcher in baseball but one of the best backstops in the game.
His patient approach at the plate has helped stabilize a Yankees lineup looking for a consistent presence wherever they can find one. While he doesn’t have the same power as Cowser, he strikes out just 20.2% of the time and walks at an impressive 12.8% clip. The lefty-hitting Wells only has 258 plate appearances as he’s been platooning with right-handed Jose Trevino but since he’s getting most of the at-bats against righties, he should accumulate enough plate appearances to make a legitimate run at the Rookie of the Year crown.
Luis Gil, RHP, NYY
Even more so than Wells, it’s tough to imagine where the Yankees would be without Luis Gil. The 26-year-old starter has been one of their most valuable pitchers and was arguably their number-one starter while Gerrit Cole was injured. The hard-throwing righty has become a strikeout machine, with a 28.5% K rate fueled by a nearly 30% whiff rate. What makes Gil extra unique is that he’s more experienced than other rookies, at 26 he already made big league stints in 2021 and 2022 while maintaining rookie eligibility for this year. It was during this time as a reliever that he was able to show off his overpowering stuff, consisting of a high-90s fastball and hard slider that has a 33% whiff rate. Now, in his first full season, he has shown the baseball world that his explosive stuff works just as well in the rotation.
Over 112.2 innings, already more than any other season in his pro career, Gil is boasting a 3.20 ERA and 3.58 FIP good for a 2.3 WAR, nearly twice as high as the next-best starting pitcher. Given his history as a reliever and the innings limits that come with that it is unclear how he will perform the rest of the season. He is already in uncharted territory and it’s still early August making it very possible that his performance will slow down due to fatigue in the next several starts or the Yankees stay cautious with him and limit his usage heading into the postseason. If not though Gil could very well be good enough to win the Rookie of the Year award from the mound.
Those three players are the favorites for the Rookie of the Year as it stands right now however there are a couple of players who are close behind and would be right there if not for some minor injuries. Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller and Boston Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu are both having very impressive seasons and could very well find themselves in the mix by the end of the season. For now though the spotlight belongs to Wells, Gil, and Cowser, three players who have established themselves as not only important players on their team but impactful players worth the fans’ attention.
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