We are officially back! Well, almost. We’re currently in the midst of preseason with the season starting next week. The NBA offseason was once again chaotic with plenty of moves in the offseason, followed by summer league showcasing some of the top-tier talent. There have been plenty of winners and losers in this offseason.
This first article will be breaking down the Western Conference hierarchy and making a prediction on their over/under win total according to theScore. This will be the first time in a while that it appears that the Western Conference might not be the better conference of the two. We have the Northwest Division which is arguably the most competitive division where all five teams can make the postseason.
Then there is the Southwest with the reigning Western Conference Champions, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Pacific Division which has Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors, as well as Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers. It will be the first time since 2018 that LeBron James will not be on the Lakers roster.
Let’s get right into it! Keep in mind, these are predictions based on win lines and I will come back in April to see how many I got right and provide which ones I believe are locks.
NBA Western Conference Power Rankings
1. San Antonio Spurs
Last season result: 62-20; lost in NBA Finals to Knicks
Regular season win line: 60.5
Prediction: Over
This team, along with the Thunder, will run the NBA, not just the Western Conference, for at least the next three years. The main core is still really young, with all guys under 23, and this postseason showed what they are capable of. The biggest star, however, is Victor Wembanyama, who might be the face of the NBA or is at least fighting for the title. I believe this younger core will try harder in the regular season to get that home-court advantage.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season result: 64-18; lost in Western Conference Finals to Spurs
Regular season win line: 60.5
Prediction: Under (Barely)
This doesn’t mean I think the Oklahoma City Thunder will be a lot worse than last season. But this is a team that has been the top seed for three years in a row, and this season could be more about cruising to get to the postseason. The Thunder lost a Game 7 and were missing key players such as Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell. OKC also did lose some key contributors, but luckily they have enough depth and youth to fill the void. I believe the Thunder will prioritize pacing their two-time MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and then lean in on their role players getting more reps and touches throughout the season.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
Last season result: 49-33; lost in Western Conference Semifinals to Spurs
Regular season win line: 48.5
Prediction: Over
The Minnesota Timberwolves went out and fixed their problem at the point guard position by trading for LaMelo Ball. The question, however, will be regarding his health, as last season was his healthiest season in four years. Minnesota did lose their two top power forwards from last season, which gave them size in the front court to go with Rudy Gobert. However, Jaden McDaniels could be a better fit with him being a stretch, and I think Minnesota has done enough by adding more depth to at least get 49 wins, which was their win total in the past two seasons.
4. Houston Rockets
Last season result: 52-30; lost in First Round to Lakers
Regular season win line: 47.5
Prediction: Over (*LOCK)
This team won 52 games without a starting point guard. That was probably one of the most underrated losses in the league last year. Having Fred VanVleet will at least make the Houston Rockets more dangerous and cohesive come playoff time. The Rockets also added more depth by signing Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic. With those, along with another year of growth among their young stars, the Rockets should have no problem hitting the over barring injury. Let’s not forget about 38-year-old Kevin Durant; that dude is still a bad man!
5. Denver Nuggets
Last season result: 54-28; lost in First Round to Timberwolves
Regular season win line: 47.5
Prediction: Over (*LOCK)
The core of this roster is getting older, and a couple of their signings are even older. It feels like the Denver Nuggets are further from title contention than ever since winning in 2023. Nevertheless, it’s always safe to pick the Nuggets to reach the over on their win total. That is because of one man. And his name is Nikola Jokic. As long as the three-time MVP is on the roster and healthy, Denver should get 48 wins and be in the top six. It’s still an elite offensive team, but the defense will be one of the worst in the league.
6. Los Angeles Lakers
Last season result: 53-29; lost in Western Conference Semifinals to Thunder
Regular season win line: 46.5
Prediction: Under (Barely)
This team is a wild card. Luckily, the Lakers benefit from being in the worst division. The Lakers could easily exceed 47 wins, but it’s close. For starters, they do have a top-three player in Doncic who can be a candidate for MVP.
However, he has struggled with health the past two seasons. Also, I know James isn’t the same player, but LA will miss his leadership, dedication, and veteran experience. LA did look good to start last season with the Luka and Austin Reaves combo. The Lakers also addressed their need by getting a rim protector in Walker Kessler. The price was steep, especially since Kessler only played five games last year. The roster lost some key role players from last season, and the roster right now might be a downgrade on paper. My expectations are a mid-to-high 40s win team capable of a deep run if things click.
7. Portland Trail Blazers
Last season result: 42-40; lost in First Round to Spurs
Regular season win line: 41.5
Prediction: Over
This would be an absolute lock if the talent was more balanced. The Portland Trail Blazers could run into an issue with having four undersized guards, which include Scoot Henderson, Jrue Holiday, returning superstar Damian Lillard, and acquired star Ja Morant. It’s going to be interesting to see how rookie head coach Micah Nori will make these pieces fit.
Could Lillard take a backseat? Will Morant return to stardom? How will this affect Henderson’s development? Let’s not forget about rising superstar Deni Avdija. Will he be able to build off last season’s All-Star season and still be the top option? The Blazers should be able to win the same number of games as last year with just the talent, but the talent and roster construction have to make sense too.
8. Utah Jazz
Last season result: 22-60; missed the playoffs
Regular season win line: 37.5
Prediction: Over
The Utah Jazz are currently in a position where they have a lot of talent and potential across all positions after the last few years of not being competitive. This looks like the year where we can see the Jazz have a big increase in their win total from last year, where they finished 22-60. The goal this season will be seeing which one of these players has the potential to be that franchise star to lead them going forward and help translate that into wins.
A playoff appearance might be a stretch, but a play-in berth, especially in a weaker Western Conference, is totally not out of the question. Let’s remember that Utah acquired Jaren Jackson Jr., who was the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year. He should help improve Utah’s defense, which has ranked near the bottom for the past three seasons.
9. Phoenix Suns
Last season result: 45-37; lost in First Round to Thunder
Regular season win line: 39.5
Prediction: Under
This squad was a pleasant surprise last year. Especially after trading Durant. However, are we sure this team last season wasn’t just a fluke? Are we sure that Dillon Brooks will be able to build on last season’s breakout season? The defense was their identity last year, but trading for Miles Bridges won’t exactly make their defense better. A lot of the success for this upcoming season will depend on how the young players such as Jalen Green, Khaman Maluach, and Koa Peat perform. Also, the Phoenix Suns will have a hole to fill in the center with Mark Williams out with a torn labrum.
10. Golden State Warriors
Last season result: 37-45; missed the playoffs
Regular season win line: 39.5
Prediction: Under (*LOCK)
Outside of Curry, this roster is very old, let alone very brutal. It will be another year of Curry showing off his greatness, who will be 39 in March. However, asking him to carry the offense night in and night out at his age and expecting him to remain healthy is a giant ask. If players such as Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, and Kristaps Porzingis were healthy to start the year, then Golden State might be able to make some noise as a fringe playoff team.
If the season starts off rough, then perhaps it might be time to start planning for life after Curry. This roster, when healthy, is at max a 45-win team. With the injuries starting off the season, it will be very tough seeing the Warriors match their 37-45 record from last season, let alone reaching 40 wins. This feels like a near lock.
11. Dallas Mavericks
Last season result: 26-56; missed the playoffs
Regular season win line: 35.5
Prediction: Under (Barely)
This team is a contender to make a big jump in wins this season similar to the Jazz. However, there are a couple of differences. The Dallas Mavericks will have a first-year NBA coach in Dusty May, and then Dallas doesn’t have as many young players with star upside. Still, the Mavericks have reigning rookie of the year Cooper Flagg, who has shown glimpses of superstardom.
Another X-factor will be Kyrie Irving, who is 34 years old, coming off an ACL injury and hasn’t played an NBA game in over 18 months. If Irving can return to form and isn’t on the trade market, then Dallas can certainly compete for a play-in berth. That will be the X-factor whether the Mavericks pass their regular season win line or not.
12. Memphis Grizzlies
Last season result: 25-57; missed the playoffs
Regular season win line: 28.5
Prediction: Over
I remember the last time the Memphis Grizzlies hit the reset button back in 2019; they nearly made the playoffs with Morant. Now, Memphis is back at square one with rookie Cameron Boozer, who has looked NBA-ready in summer league and could be a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year. This team last year did look awful, especially in the last couple of months, when they went 3-21 due to tanking and injuries. No way this team is a playoff team or even a play-in team yet, but Memphis could win at least 29-32 games and maybe even be one of the league’s pleasant surprises.
13. New Orleans Pelicans
Last season result: 26-56; missed the playoffs
Regular season win line: 27.5
Prediction: Under (Barely)
This one is a tough one because I believe the line is right where this team is. It’s not that this team doesn’t have enough. They do. It’s just how the players fit on the roster and how durable the roster is. Zion Williamson played the second most amount of games in his career last season, and the team still won only 26 games.
Also, Dejounte Murray is back, and he looked good, but will it be enough to be competitive? I doubt it. Also, the roster just doesn’t make sense, and it seems like the New Orleans Pelicans‘ front office hasn’t come to grips with the fact that they might need to hit the reset button and start a full rebuild. Trey Murphy III is a great player, but can he be a top player on a contending team? There are just too many questions about this team and front office to instill confidence that they are a legit team.
14. Los Angeles Clippers
Last season result: 42-40; missed the playoffs
Regular season win line: 28.5
Prediction: Under
If the punishments from the Kawhi Leonard investigation didn’t happen, then I would have bet on the Los Angeles Clippers to find a way to overachieve, despite having a roster that is clearly rebuilding. But now, with the Clippers expected to lose five first-round draft picks from 2029-2033 and they don’t control their pick this season, it might be in the best interest of their organization and very possible that some of the veterans on their squad get dealt at the deadline to reacquire some of those lost draft picks.
Also, it doesn’t help that Brandon Ingram will miss time with a partially torn Achilles. It will be a very rough season for the Clippers, and they are hoping that Keaton Wagler will show some promise to be a silver lining.
15. Sacramento Kings
Last season result: 22-60; missed the playoffs
Regular season win line: 21.5
Prediction: Under
The Sacramento Kings are going to be bad. Do you know how bad it will be? They are relying on three-time All-Star Ben Simmons to save the day. Jokes aside, this is a team that has a young rookie with a lot of promise who will be starting from Day 1: Darius Acuff Jr.
Also, this is a team that had three borderline stars last year, and they were still one of the worst teams in the league. Yes, injuries were an issue, but they were still bad. It is also very likely that Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine won’t be on the roster come April. Acuff will be exciting on NBA League Pass, but unfortunately, wins will be hard to come by.
Main Image: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
