It’s been a long road for the Pittsburgh Pirates over the last few years. The last time they made the postseason was in 2015. Since then, they’ve only mustered up one winning season and that was in 2018 when they went 82-79. Coming into 2025, Fanduel has the Pirates O/U win projection set at 75.5, which is the same mark set for their division rival St. Louis Cardinals. Over the last two seasons, they’ve hit that mark by one win. Maybe the Pirates can hit the over by a few more wins in 2025 with their young guys mixed in with a few veteran voices.
Why the Pirates Will Exceed Their O/U of 75.5 Wins In 2025
Skenes Headlines Talented Rotation
When people talk about the Pirates, they talk about Paul Skenes, and why wouldn’t they? He is not only the future of the Pirates rotation but all of Major League Baseball. Skenes won Rookie of the Year in 2024 by going 11-3 with an impressive 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts. His ERA was the best of any rookie with at least 20 starts in the live ball era. In Addition to his Rookie of the Year, he finished third in Cy Young voting while getting the starting nod in the All-Star Game. And this is with him not even getting called up until May of last season.
Skenes has one of the most lethal pitching arsenals in the game today, including hitting triple digits with his fastball. He might be adding even more to it for the upcoming campaign. He is the favorite to win the 2025 NL Cy Young Award and could add even more MVP votes to his name. Skenes is only getting better at just 22 years old and will for years to come, potentially making him one of the most feared pitchers in the league moving forward.
Joining Skenes in the rotation are guys like Jared Jones and Mitch Keller. Starting with Jones, he and Skenes have the potential to be one of the best one-two punches in the league. Jones’s upside is off the charts and he showed that in his rookie campaign in 2024. His fastball and slider are dominant and he’s only going to get better. If he takes that next step and adds even more to his arsenal, Jones can have a breakout year for the Pirates.
While the talk has been about the young guns in the rotation, Keller is a vital piece of what the Pirates hope to do in 2025. He finished with a career-best 3.91 ERA in 2022 and followed that up with an All-Star appearance in 2023 after pitching to an ERA just above 3.30 at the All-Star break.
He took a step back in the second half of that season but rebounded in the first half of 2024 with an ERA just below 3.50 before slowing down yet again in the second half of the season. Keller pitching at an All-Star rate for an entire year would provide a huge boost to this rotation and with both Skenes and Jones potentially taking steps forward, it can trickle down to Keller doing just that.
ONeil Cruz Takes That Next Step
The main concern with the Pirates is putting together enough offense to complement the rotation. In 2024, Pittsburgh’s offense ranked towards the bottom in almost every major statistical category. The two players that were carrying the load were Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz. Those two players are expected to lead yet again but what would make this offense better is Cruz having a breakout campaign.
In his first full season in Major League Baseball (146 games), Cruz hit 21 home runs and drove in 76 while also stealing 22 bases. He’s shown he has all the tools to be a star and his transition to center field full-time could help unlock his potential. Cruz has insane power and bat speed but struggles with strikeout percentage. In his second full season, he’s expected to improve his discipline at the plate and if he can find consistency, he will take that next step and be what the Pirates hope he can be.
Wins To Be Had Inside Own Division
For the second consecutive season, the Pirates finished with a record of 76-86, good for last place in the NL Central in 2024. Despite the last-place finish, they had the third-best record within their own division, finishing just two games below .500 at 25-27. They also finished with that division record in 2023.
For two seasons in a row, the Pirates have been respectable. If they were to put up the same record for the third straight season, they would still hit the over on their 2025 projected win total. The division is mediocre yet again with no clear-cut favorite to run away with it.
The Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, and Chicago Cubs hovered around .500 last season while the Milwaukee Brewers lost pieces this offseason. While this doesn’t mean that the Pirates will win the NL Central, there are wins to be had inside this division. They have enough pieces to improve upon their record from the past couple of seasons, even if it’s just by two or three wins.
Main Image: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
