FanDuel has set the Philadelphia Phillies over/under for 2025 at 90.5 wins. Last season they exceeded this projection with a record of 95-67. The all-around talent on this club makes it difficult to think that this team, with pretty much the same roster as in 2024, can’t win over 90 games yet again. The Phillies are one of the best teams in baseball and they’ll prove why in 2025 with their third consecutive 90-win season.
Why the Phillies Will Exceed Their O/U of 90.5 Wins in 2025
One of the Best Rotations in Baseball
The Phillies are loaded with talent on the mound and it all starts with ace Zack Wheeler. He had a phenomenal 2024 that included finishing with a 2.57 ERA with 224 strikeouts, both good for third in all of MLB. Wheeler finished as runner-up to the NL Cy Young for the second time in his career. He’s also finished with an ERA below 3.00 in four of his last five seasons.
The back half of the Phillies’ one-two punch is Aaron Nola. In 33 starts least season, Nola finished with 3.57 ERA with 197 strikeouts. He’s hit a little bit of an every-other-year pattern since 2018 where he’s been good one year, then not so good the next. If that continues, that means this year could be one of those down years but with the caliber of pitcher Nola is, the hope is that he can correct that.
Then you have guys behind them like Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, and the new offseason signee Jesus Luzardo. Sanchez improved upon his good 2023 with an even better 2024 and is on the rise. He started in 31 games last season and had an ERA of 3.32 with 153 strikeouts. Sanchez also threw two complete games.
Getting Luzardo this offseason was a great move for this rotation. He dealt with injuries last season that limited him to only 12 starts. A bounce-back from injuries for Luzardo could prove vital and get him back to his 2022 and 2023 seasons when he had a 3.32 ERA and a 3.58 ERA with the Miami Marlins.
Then you have Suarez, who was unbelievable through his first 15 starts last season, going 10-1 and pitching to an impressive 1.75 ERA. His season went downhill after that with injuries playing a factor but he still finished the season with a 3.46 ERA and made his first All-Star appearance. If he can get back into top form, he is a dangerous pitcher to face.
With that being said, Suarez is dealing with a back injury and be placed on IL to start the season but the Phillies have positioned themselves with starting pitching depth to deal with injuries, which makes them that much more loaded.
Philadelphia’s rotation has the firepower to go toe-to-toe with any lineup and any other starting rotation in the league, positioning them to do what they did last year and more.
A Complete Lineup Top to Bottom
The rotation won’t be the only thing that wins games for the Phillies in 2025 as their lineup can also go toe-to-toe with any group of starters in the league and the opposition’s starting lineup. From top to bottom, Philadelphia has one of the most dangerous lineups and maybe the most complete in all of Major League Baseball. They finished fifth in baseball in batting average, runs scored, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. This team also finished fifth in stolen bases and seventh in home runs.
The biggest star of course is two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper. He had his best year at the plate in 2024 since he won MVP in 2021. There are reasons to believe he could repeat last season and maybe hit even better. Either way, the Phillies have one of the most feared hitters in the league and he’s surrounded by a lot of talent.
Whether it’s Trea Turner or Kyle Schwarber, the team has great options for the leadoff spot and both will thrive whether it’s at the top or in the middle of the order. The Phillies have an emerging star in Alec Boem at third, who has gotten better every season and made his first All-Star Game in 2024. He has the potential to be a 25+ home run and 100 RBI player and Bryson Stott is due for a bounce-back year. This is probably the best offensive infield in the league, along with J.T. Realmuto behind the plate.
Nick Castellanos is still a dangerous hitter and Max Kepler has emerged in Spring Training to be a legitimate threat in this lineup while Brandon Marsh is coming off of his best two seasons as a pro.
This lineup compliments this starting pitching so well and that’s what will carry the Phillies into success for the upcoming campaign.
Championship Aspirations
With one of the best rotations and lineups in the game, there’s no reason why the Phillies can’t legitimately compete for a World Series. They made it to the World Series in 2021 but lost to the Houston Astros in six games. Philadelphia has been a favorite for a few years now but has come up short each time. Coming into this season, they have the fourth-best odds to win it all according to most sports books and it’s because of the talented roster they have. The Phillies have gone out and spent money in almost all facets of the game throughout the years to put together one of the most complete teams you see today.
Philadelphia is built to win now and their urgency to do so will propel the Phillies to 90+ wins. Whether the bats show up in October is another question but if everything comes together, this team has more than enough to make a deep postseason run and win the World Series.
Main Image: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
