Entering September, the Minnesota Twins looked like it was going to make another appearance in the playoffs and make a run for the World Series or at least the American League Pennant. Despite having a 92 percent chance to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs, the Twins went 9-18 in September and missed the playoffs with a 82-80 record. It’s expected that it wasn’t something wrong with the organization as a whole and just hit a rough patch at the wrong time.
Now looking at 2025, Minnesota once again have the expectation to make the playoffs in a division that is expected to be very competitive in 2025.
According to FanDuel, the Twins projected win total for 2025 is 83.5 wins. Here’s how and why Minnesota will hit the UNDER in wins in 2025.
2025 Minnesota Twins O/U: Why the Twins can hit the UNDER
No major changes to roster
The Minnesota Twins, like many of its AL Central counterparts, didn’t spend a whole lot of money this offseason outside of a few more depth pieces with center fielder Harrsion Bader, left-handed pitcher Danny Coulombe and first baseman Ty France. While the signees could see extended playing time and plate appearances due to potential injuries at those positions, they more than likely not help the Twins make a jump in 2025.
Players to watch of course in the future are the Twins’s top prospects like No. 2 Twins prospect outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez and No. 3 Twins prospect infielder Luke Keaschell are both expected to make the jump to the Show in 2025. However, MLB top five prospect outfielder Walker Jenkins is not expected to make the jump until the 2026 season according to MLB Pipeline.
Injuries, Injuries, and more Injuries
This has been the thorn in the side of the Twins’s top players in the past few years. Guys like shortstop Carlos Correa, centerfielder Byron Buxton, third baseman Royce Lewis among others, can’t seem to stay healthy when the team needs them the most. 2024 saw Buxton have the most plate appearances since 2017 for Twins with 388. He even had a solid comeback season a year ago, with a OPS+ of 137 (his best since FanGraphs is projecting Buxton to have over 500 plate appearances in 2025, but that’s not probable with the history of injuries for the center fielder.
Royce Lewis still has batting upside but he can’t stay healthy. Lewis did however had his MLB career high of games played and plate appearances with 82 games played and 325 plate appearances. Correa is expected to be good in 2025 after a full offseason of rest. He’s struggled with injuries, but he should be the Twins best hitter, as long as he stays healthy.
Pitching will be interesting
Minnesota had a very interesting season in 2024 on the defensive side of the ball. It finished with the 21st ranked staff in ERA with 4.26 but seventh in FIP with 3.84. However, they were -20 in defensive runs saved last season.
Looking ahead at 2025, Pablo Lopez is back and will continue to be the Twins’s ace. They will have Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods Richardson. Lopez is projected to finish with a sub 4.0 WAR, while Ober with 2.7, Ryan with 2.8, Woods Richardson with 1.5 and Paddack with 1.0. However, the bullpen could struggle, outside of course, Giffin Jax and Jhoan Duran. They could also just be fantastic as ZiPS projects them to have a 6.0 in WAR. With no changes in the bullpen, the Twins could have a similar season to last or could fall off.
Win Projection
The Minnesota Twins will be an interesting team to watch in 2025. If the Twins’ best players stay healthy throughout the season, they could easy win the AL Central division. However, there top players won’t stay healthy all season long and pitching could fall off a bit. With that in mind with a very competitive division, the Twins just fall short of their projected win total of 83.5.
Prediction: 80-83 wins
Main Image: © Eric Canha-Imagn Images
