It’s going to be another long season for the Miami Marlins and their over/under projection at Fanduel for the 2025 season reflects that. It’s set at 63.5 after coming off of a 62-win season in 2024. While there could be some hope for their long-term future, the present state of the team, as seen last season, will be rough. That spells disaster for this year’s squad and could possibly struggle to get even 60 wins.
The Marlins Will Fall Below Their O/U Win Total of 63.5
A Full-Fledged Rebuild
With their first-year manager Skip Schumaker, the Marlins made the postseason in 2023 and it looked like things were looking up…until 2024. Not only did they not make the postseason but they finished with an abysmal 62-100 record, a 22-win decrease from the previous year. Part of that had to do with pitching injuries and departures from the off-season but it was way below expectation either way you look at it.
Now they find themselves in a deep rebuild with a new first-year head man in Clayton McCullough. The team’s focus is solely on development for the future across the board, as indicated by the lack of moves made in the off-season. The Marlins are headed in a completely new direction with building up the day-to-day operations and system. While stressing development and long-term success, the Marlins might be in for another long year in 2025 and beyond.
Unproven Young Talent on Both Offense and the Mound
The Marlins come into the 2025 season with one of the youngest and least experienced teams in all of Major League Baseball. It’s not just on offense but the pitching side as well. When it comes to the lineup, it’s filled with young and unproven talent. While some of that young talent has shown promise for the future, the inexperience will be telling.
The Marlins’ average age among their projected lineup on offense is ~26. Their most experienced player is 22-year-old Jesus Sanchez, who’s played 446 games with 1,567 plate appearances. After that, it gets pretty thin. No one else has reached 1,000 plate appearances in their career. In fact, a lot of the roster hasn’t even accumulated 500 plate appearances, with a few projected starters not even hitting 100.
Injuries are already hitting a team that is trying to find out what they have, and that includes Sanchez, as I said is their most experienced hitter, will be out to start the season. That will make it even more challenging for this team. There’s truly a lot of unproven young talent on offense and that won’t bode well for at least the 2025 season.
On the flip side, the starting pitching has a couple of seasoned veterans in the rotation with the 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and Cal Quantrill. Injuries to guys like Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers force more unproven talent to start in 2025. Outside of Alcantara and Quantrill, the starters who are projected to take the other three spots have not pitched at least 100 innings in an MLB season. If even more injuries pop up during the season, especially to the veterans, the Marlins will be in an even tougher spot with the starting rotation. Inexperience on the mound does not bode well with inexperience at the plate.
The Loss of Jake Burger
Because of the direction that the franchise is going, the team traded its best offensive player Jake Burger to the Texas Rangers. He had 29 home runs for Miami, which was 11 more than the next player. The team as a whole hit just 150 home runs in 2024, which was good for 27th in the league. He provided what little power the Marlins had on the team. Like last season, Miami is projected to have just one player hit 20 or more home runs in 2025.
The Marlins ranked towards the bottom in pretty much every major offensive category in 2024. As mentioned, they ranked 27th in home runs but also ranked 27th in both runs and RBI. The team also finished 24th in slugging and 28th in OBP. Burger finished with 76 RBI, which was a team-best by 12. He also was second with a .460 slugging percentage and had the third-most doubles.
Miami traded or let go other notable pieces during the offseason but none might have a more negative impact on the team than Jake Burger. The offense will take an even bigger step back with the power and experience gone from last year’s team. While the trade netted the Marlins some nice prospects that might help in the near future, it’s a big downgrade for the 2025 season.
A Loaded Division
Not only are the Marlins in a complete rebuild but they have to deal with maybe the best division in baseball. Three potential 90+ win teams sit atop the division with the New York Mets, Atlanta Braves, and Philadelphia Phillies. All three teams are among the World Series favorites and will be fighting all season long for the division crown. Unfortunately for the Marlins, they will be in the path of that fight and aren’t ready for the storm. Even the Washington Nationals are set to be even more competitive, making it even tougher for them.
The Marlins record inside the division was 18-34 last season. Surprisingly, they did worse against the Nationals than the other three teams. Nonetheless, everyone got better except the Marlins and that doesn’t look good them in a stacked NL East.
Main Image: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
